The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced on December 16, 2024, that it will be terminating the Medicare Advantage Value-Based Insurance Design (VBID) model at the end of 2025 because of the model’s “substantial and unmitigable costs to the Medicare Trust Funds.” This In Focus article delves into the factors driving CMS’s decision and considerations for policymakers, Medicare Advantage Organizations and other interested stakeholders.
VBID Outcomes
VBID, run by the CMS Innovation Center, is not a permanent part of the Medicare Advantage (MA) program. Innovation Center models are required to be modified or terminated if they are a cost to the program.
CMS found that costs for the VBID model totaled $2.3 billion in calendar year (CY) 2021 and $2.2 billion in CY 2022, an unprecedent amount for an Innovation Center model. CMS concluded that these substantial expenses—driven by increased risk score growth and Part D expenditures—were unmitigable through policy modifications. Therefore, consistent with statutory requirements, CMS took action to terminate the model by the end of 2025. Earlier this year, CMS announced it would discontinue the part of VBID that allowed MA plans to offer hospice services.
Next year, the VBID model will have 62 participating MA plans and is projected to offer 7 million Medicare beneficiaries additional benefits and/or rewards, including those designed to address social determinants of health and reduce cost-sharing for prescription drugs used to treat and manage chronic conditions. As part of the announcement, CMS pledged to support a stable transition for all enrollees in MA plans participating in the MA-VBID model and emphasized that key benefits available under the model will continue to be widely available, including supplemental benefits that address the whole-person healthcare needs of beneficiaries. In addition, CMS noted beneficiary cost-sharing for prescription drugs will be reduced as the result of the expansion of the low-income subsidy program under the Inflation Reduction Act and the CMS Innovation Center’s Medicare $2 Drug List Model, which is slated to begin in 2027.
As part of the announcement, CMS released an executive summary of a forthcoming evaluation report, with the full report expected to be released in early 2025.
Key Considerations
Since the MA-VBID model’s launch in 2017, the program has experienced significant growth through a series of legislative and model changes, including requirements in the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 that expanded eligibility to MA plans in all 50 states and allowing all types of MA special needs plans to participate in MA-VBID. Previous CMS evaluations found that the MA-VBID model led to improvements in the quality of care for beneficiaries and promoted greater adherence to prescription drugs used to treat and manage chronic conditions. Though CMS has concluded that excess costs require the termination of MA-VBID by the end of 2025, the incoming Trump Administration can be expected to closely examine this decision and look at the entire Innovation Center portfolio.
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Health Management Associates, Inc. (HMA), Medicare experts will continue to assess and analyze the response to CMS’s announcement, including the incoming administration’s views on the decision and potential alternatives. HMA’s experts have the depth of knowledge, experience, and subject matter expertise to assist MA organizations and interested stakeholders in analyzing and adapting to the marketplace as the MA-VBID program ends.
For further analysis of the MA-VBID decision and its impact on the market, contact our experts below.
