In recent years, the individual market has undergone significant disruption. The expiration of enhanced premium tax credits (ePTC) at the end of 2025 and sweeping eligibility changes under the 2025 Budget Reconciliation Act (OBBBA) have reshaped—and will continue to reshape—the individual market.
The number of changes facing states and issuers in coming years are significant. As a result, it is unsurprising that discussion and analysis on the individual market impacts of the new Medicaid requirements is limited and expected to result in large numbers of Medicaid beneficiaries being disenrolled. Between community engagement requirements (i.e., work requirements), increases in eligibility checks, and loss of eligibility for certain immigrant population, the expectation is that millions of people will leave Medicaid in 2027.
This brief explores how these coming changes will reshape coverage pathways and costs, and examines implications for consumer affordability and churn, issuer pricing and risk pools, and state administrative burdens—alongside strategies for states, issuers, and policymakers to mitigate adverse effects.
