This week, our second In Focus provides insights into Medicaid managed care enrollment in the second quarter of 2025. Health Management Associates Information Services (HMAIS) obtained and analyzed monthly Medicaid enrollment data in 30 states,[1] offering a reliable baseline and timely view of the immediate impact of the current policy landscape as new federal policies take effect.
This analysis presents a snapshot of HMAIS’s comprehensive detailed quarterly Medicaid managed care enrollment report (available by subscription), which includes plan-level information for nearly 300 health plans in 41 states, corporate ownership, for-profit versus not-for-profit status, and similar information regarding publicly traded plans. Table 1 provides a sample of enrollment trends, representing 57 million Medicaid managed care enrollees of a total of 66 million Medicaid managed care enrollees nationwide. Data reporting periods and program coverage vary by state, so figures may not be fully comparable.
Key Insights from 2Q25 Data
The 30 states included in our review have released monthly Medicaid managed care enrollment data—via a public website or in response to a public records request from HMAIS—for April through June of 2025. This report reflects the most recent data posted or obtained from states. HMA has made the following observations regarding the enrollment data:
- Year-over-year decline. As of June 2025, in the 30 states reviewed, Medicaid managed care enrollment declined by 1.6 million members year-over-year, a 2.7 percent drop from June 2024.
- Widespread decreases. Of the 30 states, 27 experienced enrollment declines in June 2025 compared to June 2024. Oregon and the District of Columbia saw modest growth, while California remained flat (Table 1).
- Sharpest contractions. Arizona and Maryland reported double-digit percentage drops in enrollment in June 2025 (Table 1), underscoring the uneven impact of redeterminations and eligibility policy changes.
- Difference among expansion and non-expansion states. Among the 24 states included in the analysis that expanded Medicaid, enrollment fell by 1.2 million—a 2.5 percent drop—to 49.2 million. The six non-expansion states saw a steeper proportional decline of 4.2 percent, to a total of 8 million enrollees.
Table 1. 2Q25 Monthly MCO Enrollment by State, April–June 2025
The data in Table 1 should be viewed as a sampling of enrollment trends across these states rather than as a comprehensive comparison, which cannot be established based solely on publicly available monthly enrollment data. It is also important to note the limitations of the data presented. For example, not all states report data at the same time during the month, resulting in a range of snapshots from the beginning to the end of the month. Second, in some instances, the data cover all Medicaid managed care programs, while in others they reflect only a subset of the broader managed Medicaid population, depending on what data is publicly available.
Market Share and Plan Dynamics
HMAIS’s report includes plan-level details for nearly 300 plans, covering corporate ownership, program participation, and tax status. As of June 2025, Centene continues to lead the national Medicaid managed care market with 17.8 percent share, followed by Elevance (10.4 percent), United (8.6 percent), and Molina (6.2 percent; see Table 2).
Table 2. National Medicaid Managed Care Market Share by Number of Beneficiaries for a Sample of Publicly Traded Plans, June 2025
What to Watch
The OBBBA (P.L. 119-21) calls for significant changes to Medicaid eligibility and enrollment policies, including work requirements and more frequent eligibility redeterminations. Projections indicate that Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program enrollment could decline by up to 7.5 million people by 2034. In addition, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has announced that it will not approve or extend waivers for multi-year continuous eligibility for adults or children.
As these policies are implemented, state governments and healthcare organizations should prepare for increased administrative complexity, potential coverage disruptions, and the resulting effect on MCO revenue and value-based care arrangements.
Connect with Us
HMA is home to experts who know the Medicaid managed care landscape at the federal and state levels. As the Medicaid landscape continues to evolve, HMAIS equips stakeholders with timely, actionable intelligence, including enrollment data, quarterly by-plan and by-state enrollment reports, financials, Medicaid demonstration and Rural Health Transformation program tracking, and a robust library of publicly available Medicaid-related documents. HMAIS combines publicly available information with HMA expert insights on the structure of Medicaid in each state, as well as our comprehensive, proprietary State Medicaid Overviews.
For questions about the HMAIS enrollment report and information about the HMAIS subscription, contact our experts below.
