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Blog

Fiscal 2027 State Budget Proposals: Provider Taxes, Medicaid Financing, and OBBBA Effects

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As of March 15, 2026, most governors had released proposed budgets for state fiscal year (FY) 2027. In addition, several governors in states that enacted biennial budgets in 2025 have released supplemental proposals. These FY 2027 state budget proposals signal how governors are responding to Medicaid financing changes, provider tax phase downs, and new implementation costs created in the 2025 Budget Reconciliation Act (P.L. 119-21, OBBBA). 

Given the requirement enacted in OBBBA, this year’s state budgets are more than spending plans. They are critical policy tools governors will use to navigate changes in federal funding, new program requirements, and increasing pressures across Medicaid and broader healthcare markets. 

The FY 2027 budgets indicate how governors are attempting to balance competing imperatives: maintaining healthcare coverage and access, stabilizing provider networks, financing Medicaid obligations, and aligning state healthcare and health-related programs with new federal rules. Healthcare provider taxes, revised funding priorities, and targeted funding proposals are key levers in the process of balancing budgets. 

Health Management Associates Information Services (HMAIS) has published its final iteration of the FY 2027 Proposed State Budget Overview Report (subscriber access required), which examines proposed FY 2027 state budgets (January 22, 2026, A Look at Proposed State Fiscal Budgets). Our March 2026 issuance covers all proposed FY 2027 budgets for non-biennial budget states and some supplemental budget proposals for states that enacted biennial budgets in 2026. Following is a look at key trends in Medicaid proposals and some of the substantial budget proposals that are discussed within the report. 

Provider Taxes and Medicaid Financing Under OBBBA 

One notable fiscal federal policy change under OBBBA is the phase down of the Medicaid provider tax programs, a financing mechanism many states rely on to draw down federal matching funds and support provider payments. The federal law freezes existing provider tax programs, prohibits new ones, and requires Medicaid expansion states to phase down the minimum allowable tax rate from 6 to 3.5 percent by 2032. 

In addition, OBBBA places new limits on state-directed payments, capping them at 100 percent of Medicare rates for expansion states and 110 percent for non-expansion states. Grandfathered payment arrangements will be phased down by 10 percent annually beginning in 2028. 

FY 2027 state budget proposals highlight how these changes will have substantial and long-term fiscal impacts, even if some effects are delayed. Examples include: 

  • Arizona estimates it will receive $5.3 billion less in federal support between FY 2029 and 2033 as a result of policy changes. 
  • California projects that state expenditures for Medi-Cal will grow $2.4 billion in FY 2027, largely because the Medical Provider Interim Payment expires in FY 2026 and a decrease in managed care organization (MCO) tax revenue available to support the Medi-Cal program. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposed FY 2027 budget assumes a transition period for the decreased MCO tax through December 31, 2026. 
  • Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont’s proposed supplemental budget for the 2025–27 fiscal biennium calls for reducing hospital provider taxes by $275 million. Connecticut increased supplemental payments and provider taxes during the 2025 legislative session, but the governor’s proposal would reduce the inpatient hospital provider tax rate from 6 percent to 4.1 percent. 
  • Illinois projects that most of the budgetary impacts will begin in FY 2028, with federal Medicaid support reduced by approximately $2.8 billion annually by FY 2031. 
  • New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s budget proposal updates the managed care tax spending plan and estimates the state will collect $1.5 billion fewer receipts than anticipated in fiscal 2027. 

Implementation Costs: Staffing, Systems, and Administrative Burden 

Along with the decreased federal funding, implementing OBBBA carries significant administrative and operational costs, compounding pressure on state budgets. 

According to an Associated Press analysis of 25 state budget protections, states will need to spend up to $1 billion in federal and state funds on technology upgrades and additional staff to fully implement the Medicaid work and community engagement requirements. Many FY 2027 budgets reflect this reality, with new investments focused on expanding staffing capacity and modernizing eligibility and data systems. For example:

  • Michigan’s proposed budget, for example, includes $186.6 million from the state general fund to fully implement OBBBA, including $80.3 million in all funds to hire additional full-time employees who can meet the increased workload. 
  • Missouri proposes $294.6 million and dedicated staff members to comply with OBBBA. 
  • Arizona proposes a $14.4 million one-time investment and dedicated OBBBA implementation staff. 

Several governors also propose investments to help beneficiaries remain enrolled amid more frequent eligibility checks and new requirements. For example: 

  • Kentucky proposes $35.6 million in FY 2027 and $11 million in FY 2028 to modify the Medicaid information technology systems and other administrative systems to cover increased costs for the more frequent six-month eligibility redeterminations and to implement the new community engagement and work requirements. 
  • Rhode Island proposes $32.7 million for technology modifications to the RIBridges software to maintain compliance for various health and human services programs to align with OBBBA. 

What to Watch: FY 2027 Budget Decisions and Medicaid Financing Risks 

Upcoming provider tax phase downs and caps on state-directed payments constrain core funding tools just as implementation costs for staffing and systems are rising, forcing difficult decisions about coverage, provider support, and administrative capacity. Providers face growing uncertainty as tax supported supplemental payments are reduced or restructured, with potential implications for cash flow, service availability, and network participation. 

Managed care plans, meanwhile, must navigate shifting rate development assumptions, changes in provider payment arrangements, and increased enrollment churn tied to eligibility and redetermination changes. 

While the timing and magnitude of effects vary, these proposals underscore that provider tax and supplemental payment changes are more than abstract future concerns. They already are shaping FY 2027 budget decisions and long-term Medicaid financing strategies. 

Most state legislatures are still debating their spending plans, making it critical to track which proposals are included in FY 2027 budgets, which are scaled back, and which are eliminated. These budget decisions will play a central role in determining market stability, access to care, and program sustainability in the years ahead. 

HMAIS will publish additional reports in the coming months summarizing each state’s enacted budget. The first iteration is expected in May 2026. 

Connect with Us 

As the policy and funding landscapes continue to evolve, states and other stakeholders need to remain flexible. HMA brings the expertise, tools, and insights needed for stakeholders to stay on top of the rapidly changing environment. For questions or to connect with an HMA expert, contact Andrea Maresca and Kathleen Nolan. 

The full report is available to HMAIS subscribers. Questions can be directed to Maddie McCarthy. 

Blog

Connecting the Dots: Medicaid Community Engagement Requirements and State Readiness for 2027

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New federal Medicaid community engagement requirements, along with more frequent redetermination and a reduced retroactive eligibility timeframe, take effect January 1, 2027. These changes are reshaping state Medicaid policy agendas, budget decisions, and eligibility system design as states prepare to implement federally mandated work and community engagement requirements for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expansion population. This blog addresses the forthcoming policy changes, key issues related to eligibility and information systems, and timely actions for state partners preparing to meet the new requirements.

Community engagement requirements often are discussed in broad terms: whether they encourage self-sufficiency or create barriers. For state Medicaid agencies, managed care plans (MCPs), and providers, however, the more immediate and consequential question is operational: Is the Medicaid program—across eligibility systems, data flows, partner roles, and communications—ready to administer these requirements without losing eligible people? 

Based on our work with states, Medicaid programs, and community partners, the answer is dependent on the approach to execution. Specifically, it hinges on how states prepare their systems and partners for compliance with community engagement requirements without placing undue burden or expectations on beneficiaries, government agencies, MCPs, and community partners. 

Federal Context: Medicaid Community Engagement Requirements Beginning in 2027 

Under federal law, states that extended Medicaid to able‑bodied adults in the ACA Medicaid expansion population (up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level) must: 

  • Apply community engagement requirements to expansion adults, unless they qualify for an exemption 
  • Conduct eligibility redeterminations at least every six months for these enrollees 
  • Reduce retroactive coverage eligibility from 90 to 30 days 
  • Verify community engagement or exemptions using available data sources 
  • Enforce consequences for noncompliance beginning in 2027 

Forthcoming federal guidance and regulations will clarify key implementation details. In the interim, states are using the statutory framework to design the necessary policy changes. For example, many states will move beyond a simple “requirement” model toward support-oriented programs that make compliance achievable for enrollees, minimizes administrative churn, and leverages available data and information systems functionality to reduce compliance burden. In so doing, states need to use existing federal guidance to answer the following questions: 

  • Who is in scope and who is exempt and how are exemptions verified without creating new burdens on enrollees and the people and systems that support them? 
  • What counts as a “qualifying activity” for compliance with the community engagement requirement (e.g., education/training and caregiving)? 
  • Which data sources can be deemed as “authoritative” for verifying compliance? 
  • How and when will beneficiaries be notified, supported, and given opportunities to supply missing information? 
  • How do they track compliance with the community engagement requirement and address its intended and unintended impacts? 
  • How do the verify eligibility for new applicants and what process do they use to monitor ongoing compliance for existing enrollees? 

Analyis and planning for community engagement is underway now, state by state, and will determine whether the mandates will increase employment, education, and volunteerism and yield the expected health and economic benefits or drive avoidable coverage loss. 

From Policy Requirement to Workable Medicaid Community Engagement Implementation 

The community engagement, redetermination, and reduced retroactive coverage requirements touch multiple components of a Medicaid enterprise, including: 

  • Eligibility and enrollment systems and renewal workflows 
  • Data sources (wage databases, SNAP/TANF interfaces, workforce systems, education/training records) 
  • Managed care member services and, potentially, capitated payments 
  • All engagement with contact centers (e.g., phone, chat, text messaging, email, beneficiary portal, etc.) 
  • Document processing 
  • Notices, appeals, fair hearing processes, and case management 
  • Reporting, audit trails, and quality assurance 

In other words, the backend systems that support compliance with the community engagement requirement must be designed and built for real-world administration and meet oversight requirements. Backend system readiness is among the most important operational issues for expansion states, as it will dictate the overall timeline and success in meeting Medicaid leaders’ goals. 

How Medicaid MCPs and Providers Will Support Enrollees 

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) collaborated with Medicaid technology companies to meet the compressed community engagement implementation timeline, the scale of system changes required across eligibility and verification workflows, and long-standing cost and capacity constraints. States are being asked to implement these complex new expectation largely within existing eligibility platforms, which were designed for purposes other than continuous activity tracking or cross-agency data exchange. 

Although these arrangements may improve affordability and speed, states must still assess whether vendor-offered solutions align with their specific policy choices, data sources, partner roles, and operational risk tolerance. 

Medicaid MCPs and provider groups, including hospitals and federally qualified health centers (FQHCs), will be on the front lines of enrollee retention. These organizations should engage with states now to ensure systems and information flows support their work. MCPs should focus on access to: 

  • Timely actionable information regarding which members are subject to the requirement 
  • Visibility into exemption status and pending verification 
  • Clear rules and data feeds that support proactive outreach 
  • Alignment on plan member communications 

Primary care providers, hospitals, FQHCs, and behavioral health providers play a critical role in identifying and supporting exemptions. If the exemption processes are slow, unclear, or burdensome, patients with legitimate medical or functional limitations may lose coverage and providers may incur increased uncompensated care costs. Providers should be engaging states to solidify: 

  • Streamlined, clinically grounded exemption processes 
  • Clear guidance on documentation standards 
  • Fast, predictable exemption determinations 
  • Feedback loops when exemption requests are denied or incomplete 

Community engagement requirements will require coordination with nontraditional partners, such as: 

  • Departments of Labor/Workforce Development 
  • Community colleges, adult education, and training programs 
  • SNAP/TANF agencies (and their employment and training programs) 
  • Community-based and faith-based organizations, organizations that offer volunteer and community service opportunities, and local workforce boards 
  • Employers, chambers, and sector-based workforce intermediaries 

These partners can become essential to making the policy workable for enrollees, but they often have timelines, data standards, funding streams, and performance incentives that differ from Medicaid’s. Partners should be in conversation with states now about investments in a cross-agency and cross-sector governance structure that answers practical questions about the definitions, systems and workflows, and beneficiary experience. 

States Should Act Now 

A real and preventable risk is embedded in the 2027 timeline: coverage loss among healthy, working adults who remain eligible but cannot navigate new processes. States must look across every part of their Medicaid system, decide what they need each partner to do, and ensure those partners have the information, tools, and authority to act. Plans and providers must be clear and advocate for what they need to prevent eligible individuals from losing coverage. 

Handled well, this is an opportunity to modernize systems, strengthen cross-sector coordination, and may demonstrate whether community engagement can yield a net benefit to members—not just add steps to maintaining coverage. 

Connect with Us 

HMA Medicaid experts assist Medicaid and state policymakers with the following: 

  • Policy-to-operations design 
  • Cross-agency governance and partner alignment 
  • Information systems impact assessment, change planning, testing strategies and readiness metrics 
  • Scenario planning and beneficiary impact analysis 
  • Communications and operational playbooks 
  • Program integrity, reporting, and audit support 

HMA contributors to this article include Erin Dorrien, Kaitlyn Feiock, Andrea Maresca, and Juan Montanez. 

HMA Blog Series 

The Health Management Associates (HMA) Connecting the Dots blog series brings our experts together to examine the major policy, program, and market forces shaping healthcare coverage, delivery systems, and financing in 2026. The posts look beyond individual changes to connect emerging developments across programs and markets to help leaders understand what’s changing, why it matters, and how their decisions shape the path ahead. This month our experts weigh in on preparations for Medicaid Work and Community Engagement Requirements.  

Blog

PBM Reform Accelerates: New Rules, Broader Oversight, and What’s Ahead

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The first quarter of 2026 marked a turning point in federal oversight of pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), the intermediaries that manage prescription drug benefits for most health plans across the commercial insurance market, Medicare Part D, and other programs. New legislation, agency rulemaking, and enforcement activity collectively signal a new phase of oversight that could materially reshape PBM contracting, compensation, and transparency requirements. 

Most notably, the following developments stand out: 

  • The US Department of Labor (DOL) proposed new disclosure requirements for PBMs that serve self-insured Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) plans. 
  • The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2026 (CAA 26), signed February 3, 2026, establishes comprehensive PBM transparency and contracting requirements in the commercial insurance market and Medicare Part D. 
  • The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) finalized a settlement with Express Scripts, Inc. (ESI), requiring significant changes to ESI’s business practices. 

Together, these actions signal a trend toward greater PBM accountability, with implications for plans, pharmacies, manufacturers, and consumers. This article provides a high-level overview of the major recent developments in the PBM reform policy landscape, along with key considerations for stakeholders. 

Medicare Part D: Key Statutory Changes 

Beginning in plan year 2028, CAA 26 makes significant changes for PBMs operating in Medicare Part D. Key provisions include: 

  • Requiring PBMs to provide annual reports to plan sponsor clients detailing aggregate and drug-specific costs 
  • Restricting PBMs compensation structures, prohibiting payments tied to drug prices, rebates, or price-based benchmarks and limiting PBMs to only receive bona fide service fees that reflect fair market value 
  • Stipulating additional parameters related to rebate guarantees, contract terminology, and audit rights 

Additional provisions that will take effect in beginning with plan year 2029 include: 

  • A requirement that plan sponsors and PBMs comply with forthcoming standards for “reasonable and relevant” pharmacy contracting terms and conditions 
  • Expansion of the enforcement infrastructure to avert potential violations of the program’s pharmacy contracting requirements 

Key considerations: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has broad discretion in implementing these provisions, including setting pharmacy contracting standards, determining which PBM affiliates are subject to new requirements, and defining “fair market value.” PBMs will face expanded reporting and compliance obligations, while plans and other stakeholders will have opportunities to shape implementation through the regulatory process. 

Commercial Health Insurance Market: Key Statutory Changes 

For the commercial market, CAA 26 establishes similar transparency requirements for PBMs that serve fully insured and self-insured plans, with reporting required up to four times per year. Unlike Medicare Part D, the statute does not prohibit pricelinked compensation in the commercial market, but it does require detailed disclosure of PBM fees and revenue streams. For contracts with selfinsured plans, PBMs must remit 100 percent of rebates and fees tied to drug utilization, subject to specified limitations. 

Key considerations: These provisions significantly expand federal oversight in the commercial market. PBMs will need to scale compliance infrastructure, while employers and other plan sponsors may seek enhanced analytical and actuarial support to interpret disclosures and assess PBM performance. 

Medicaid Left Out, For Now. 

Unlike prior legislative packages, CAA 26 does not include Medicaid-specific PBM reforms, such as prohibitions on spread pricing (i.e., a PBM charges a payer more than the amount it pays the dispensing pharmacy for a prescription) and expanded National Average Drug Acquisition Cost (NADAC) reporting. 

Key considerations: These policies continue to have bipartisan support and could reemerge in future legislation. States, PBMs, and managed care plans should continue monitoring for renewed federal action on these policies. 

DOL’s Proposed PBM Fee Disclosure Rule 

DOL’s proposed rule, “Improving Transparency Into Pharmacy Benefit Manager Fee Disclosure,” would require PBMs serving self-insured ERISA plans to disclose information about rebates, manufacturer fees, pharmacy payments, and spread pricing. In late February, DOL extended the public comment period to April 15 to allow stakeholders to address how the proposed rule should align with the newly enacted CAA 26 provisions. 

Key considerations: DOL could withdraw the proposal in favor of the statutory framework or could finalize the rule to take effect before the CAA 26 requirements begin. Either path would further increase near-term compliance for PBMs and plan sponsors, and stakeholders should monitor this space closely. 

FTC Settlement with ESI 

The FTC’s settlement with ESI resolves insulin-focused litigation against the PBM and imposes extensive requirements related to transparency, compensation, rebates and fees, and benefit design. The settlement also includes less common provisions, such as a commitment to reshore and increase disclosures related to ESI’s rebate group purchasing organization (GPO) functions. 

Key considerations: If similar settlements are reached with other PBMs, the FTC could play an expanded role in shaping PBM market behavior, supplementing legislative and regulatory reforms with enforcement-driven standards. 

State Efforts to Regulate PBMs 

States continue to pursue PBM reforms, with dozens of laws enacted in recent years addressing licensure, reporting, pharmacy reimbursement, and contracting standards. Although the Supreme Court’s 2020 decision in Rutledge v. PCMA opened the door to certain state-level reforms, subsequent court decisions have narrowed the scope of permissible state regulation, particularly when ERISA preemption or Medicare Part D conflicts arise. 

Key considerations: Stakeholders operating across multiple markets and states will continue to face a complex and evolving patchwork of requirements, underscoring the importance of ongoing policy tracking and compliance coordination. 

Connect with Us 

Recent federal and state actions suggest that PBM reform is entering a more operational phase defined by transparency and enforceable standards governing compensation, contracting, and market behavior. As implementation unfolds, stakeholders across the prescription drug supply chain will need to engage closely with regulators, assess new data flows, and adapt their business practices to a more prescriptive oversight environment. 

For more information about the policies described in this article and the PBM policy landscape more broadly, please contact our experts Conor Sheehey or Stephen Palmer. 

Blog

The Value Shift in Medicare Advantage: What 2026 Benefits Tell Us About the Market’s Next Chapter

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The Medicare Advantage (MA) program continues to evolve as plans respond to shifting policy signals, market pressures, and beneficiary expectations. A new paper from Wakely, an HMA Company—The Value Shift: How Medicare Advantage Benefits Are Evolving for 2026—provides a data-driven examination of how MA benefit designs are changing and what those changes signal about the future direction of the program. 

This paper refreshes Wakely’s ongoing MA benefit analysis, updating prior findings with the latest 2026 plan enrollment data. It builds on Wakely’s established work examining benefit design, supplemental offerings, and the relationship between bids, rebates, and plan value, including The Value Shift: Inside the C-SNP Surge. 

This article highlights findings from the proprietary value-add metric that Wakely developed to provide a comprehensive assessment of MA plan value. Although it can be used as a comparative metric to evaluate relative changes year over year, it is not intended to represent pricing. 

From Benefit Expansion to Optimization 

Over the past decade, MA plans have steadily expanded benefit offerings, supported by strong enrollment growth and favorable rebate dynamics. The 2026 benefit landscape suggests that plans have been taking a more measured approach (see Figure 1). Wakely’s analysis finds that plans are becoming more strategic in how benefits are designed and deployed, maintaining or enhancing benefits that are best aligned with quality performance, affordability, and target populations while pulling back in other areas. 

Plans appear to be optimizing benefits to better align with member needs, quality performance, and financial parameters. Examples include refining supplemental benefits, adjusting cost-sharing structures, and rethinking how benefits support care management and health outcomes. 

Figure 1. Change in Plan Value-Add from 2025 to 2026

 The shift reflects an MA market in which differentiation and long-term sustainability are increasingly important. 

Supplemental Benefits: More Targeted, More Strategic 

Supplemental benefits remain a defining feature of Medicare Advantage, but their role is evolving. Wakely’s paper highlights a move away from expanding the number of benefits toward targeted benefit offerings that are more clearly connected to member engagement and outcomes. 

Plans are homing their focus on benefits that support daily living, chronic condition management, and access to care, particularly for populations with higher needs. This targeted approach suggests plans are thinking about value, operational complexity, and how benefits contribute to overall value propositions. 

Between 2025 and 2026, the percentage of members with access to common supplemental benefits has, on average, stayed consistent or slightly decreased among the general enrollment population (Figure 2). The percentage of members who are enrolled in plans that offer over-the-counter (OTC) drug, transportation, and Flex Card benefits has decreased by 11 percent, 6 percent, and 4 percent, respectively. Conversely, the Dual Eligible Special Needs Plan (D-SNP) population saw an increase in member access to all supplemental benefit categories except transportation (an 8% decrease). 

Figure 2. Percent of Enrollment in Common Supplemental Benefits 

For stakeholders across the healthcare ecosystem, this trend underscores the importance of understanding not just what benefits are offered, but why. 

Shifts in Cost Sharing and the Enrollee Experience 

Wakely’s analysis also points to notable shifts in cost sharing and premium structures. There is continued attention to balancing affordability for members with the need to manage plan liability amid changing benchmarks and utilization patterns. 

These decisions directly affect the member experience. Small shifts in copays, deductibles, or benefit limits can influence enrollment, retention, and satisfaction, particularly in competitive markets. As plans fine tune these levers, data-driven insights become critical to understanding how benefit changes may resonate with different member segments. 

2026 Signals for Future Bid Cycles 

The benefit trends identified in “The Value Shift” series suggest several broader signals for the MA market: 

  • Value over volume: Plans are prioritizing benefits that support quality, outcomes, and sustainable growth. 
  • Greater segmentation: Benefit designs are increasingly tailored to specific populations and market dynamics. 
  • Data-informed decision-making: As margins tighten, plans are relying more heavily on analytics to guide benefit strategy. 
  • Special needs plans continue to drive growth. Enrollment in Chronic Condition Special Needs Plans (C-SNPs) is the fastest-growing segment in MA. 

These dynamics have implications for MA organizations and for providers, policymakers, and partners seeking to understand how MA continues to shape care delivery and costs. 

Value-Add Metric and Benefit Design Insights 

In this paper, Wakely paired its actuarial and analytic expertise with tools that enable detailed benefit and market analysis. One of those tools, Wakely’s Medicare Advantage Competitive Analysis Tool (WMACAT), calculates a comprehensive value-add metric that integrates five core components into a consistent framework that allows for apples-to-apples comparisons across plans, markets, and years. In addition, Wakely’s Strategic Market Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART) supports broader competitive assessments by layering enrollment weighting, geographic variation, and plan positioning into the analysis. 

As an HMA company, Wakely’s work is complemented by broader policy, market, and strategy expertise, helping organizations connect benefit decisions to regulatory developments, operational considerations, and long-term goals. 

For health plans and healthcare organizations navigating the next phase of Medicare Advantage, these combined capabilities can respond to questions such as: 

  • How competitive is our benefit design today, and where are the risks? 
  • Which benefits are most aligned with our population and quality strategy? 
  • How might future policy or payment changes affect benefit sustainability? 

Looking Ahead 

MA benefit design remains an important signal of market direction by showing how plans are responding to policy change, market competition, and financial pressure. As plans shift from broad expansion to more targeted value strategies, the ability to measure, compare, and interpret benefit changes becomes essential as plans look ahead to the 2027 and 2028 bid cycles. 

Wakely will continue to build on this work with upcoming analyses, including deeper dives into Part D design changes and the implications of the sunset of the Value-Based Insurance Design (VBID) program. 

For information about this analysis and the Wakely tools, contact Dani Marino and Amanda Nelessen. 

Blog

2027 NBPP Proposed Rule Signals Further Marketplace Changes

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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) 2027 Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters (NBPP) proposed rule, published February 11, 2026, arrived at a pivotal moment for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces. The temporary enhanced premium tax credits (ePTCs), first expanded in 2021 and extended through 2025, expired at the end of last year, returning Marketplace subsidies to their original ACA structure in 2026. As we discussed in earlier articles (here and here), that shift is already affecting affordability, plan selection, and enrollment dynamics—particularly for consumers who are ineligible for premium assistance. 

The proposed 2027 NBPP represents a significant reset for the Marketplace, reflecting CMS vision and policy priorities to strengthen program integrity while expanding plan design flexibility and consumer choice as a pathway to affordability, as well as policies to defer to state authority. Healthcare organizations and other interested stakeholders may submit comments on the proposed rule through March 13, 2026. 

The remainder of this article addresses the key policy proposals and considerations for issuers, states, and consumer groups. 

CMS’s Proposals 

The proposed NBPP for 2027 sets standards for the Exchanges and ACA-compliant individual and small group markets and updates payment parameters for risk adjustment and risk adjustment data validation (RADV). The rule also implements changes approved under the 2025 Budget Reconciliation Act, (P.L. 119-21, OBBBA) and includes a range of policies spanning plan certification, eligibility and verification, and Exchange oversight. 

Expanded Plan Design Flexibility 

CMS proposes to discontinue standardized plan options in the Federally-facilitated Marketplace (FFM) and remove limits on the number of non-standardized plans offered by issuers on the FFM and state-based Marketplaces on the federal platform (SBE-FPs). Issuers would be permitted to decide whether to discontinue existing standardized or chronic condition plans or continue them with modified cost sharing. 

Considerations: This change is designed to allow greater innovation in plan design. It also raises questions about the potential return of a more complex Marketplace shopping experience for consumers who will have to shift through more plans. 

Certification of Non-Network QHPs 

One of the most consequential proposals would allow “non-network” plans to be certified as qualified health plans beginning in 2027. These plans would not rely on contracted provider networks. Instead, they would set benefit payment amounts and require issuers to demonstrate that sufficient providers—including Essential Community Providers (ECPs) and mental health and substance use disorder providers—are willing to accept those amounts as payment in full. 

Considerations: CMS positions non-network plans as a way to create lower premium options. For states and issuers, this proposal introduces new oversight and operational considerations related to access standards, consumer protections, the risk of balance billing or access gaps for consumers, and potential market instability. 

Changes in Catastrophic and Bronze Cost Sharing 

The proposed rule would further expand access to catastrophic plans by codifying hardship exemptions for individuals ineligible for advance premium tax credits (APTCs) or cost-sharing reductions (CSRs) because of projected income. CMS also proposes to allow multiyear catastrophic plans with contract terms of up to 10 consecutive years. In addition, CMS proposes new flexibility for certain bronze plan designs in the individual market. In both cases, CMS proposes to allow catastrophic and bronze plans to exceed the annual maximum out-of-pocket limit. 

Consideration: These policies reflect CMS’s emphasis on affordability through lower premiums and expanded consumer choice, while shifting more financial risk to enrollees through higher cost sharing. 

Network Adequacy and Essential Community Providers 

CMS proposes to give states greater discretion in provider access for network adequacy and ECP certification reviews, including allowing federally funded exchange (FFE) states to conduct their own reviews if CMS determines they have sufficient authority and technical capacity. CMS also proposes to reduce the minimum percentage of ECPs that issuers must include in their networks from 35 percent to 20 percent. 

Considerations: These changes reduce federal prescriptiveness and could lower issuer compliance costs but also place more responsibility on states to monitor access and ensure that vulnerable populations are not adversely affected. 

Essential Health Benefits and State Mandates 

The proposed rule would prohibit issuers from including routine non-pediatric (adult) dental services as an Essential Health Benefit (EHB). More significantly for states, CMS proposes changes to cost defrayal requirements for state-mandated benefits, requiring states to cover the cost of benefits considered “in addition to EHB” under specified criteria, even if those benefits are embedded in the state’s EHB benchmark plan. 

Consideration: These changes could have direct budgetary implications for states, pricing implications for issuers, and could stunt or potentially decrease benefits for consumers. 

Program Integrity and Increased Eligibility Verification 

CMS includes a robust set of program integrity provisions, including: 

  • Strengthened standards for agent, broker, and web broker marketing practices 
  • Required use of a US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)-approved consumer consent and application review form 
  • Codification of OBBBA policies and reintroduction of Program Integrity rule provisions not previously implemented, including expanded special enrollment period (SEP) verification and increased eligibility standards for enrollees applying for APTCs (see Navigating CMS’s 2025 Marketplace Rule: What It Means for ACA Marketplaces, Insurers, and Consumers) 
  • Implementation of the State Exchange Improper Payment Measurement (SEIPM) program for state-based Marketplaces 

Consideration: These policies continue CMS’s heightened scrutiny of enrollment activity and subsidy eligibility. CMS’s policies are likely to increase data matching issues (DMIs), which could increase burden on Marketplaces and enrollees, resulting in reduced enrollment. 

Preparing for Policy Driven Changes in ACA Marketplaces 

The 2027 NBPP underscores a clear policy shift away from extending federal subsidies toward advancing a Marketplace framework that emphasizes program integrity, state flexibility, and expanded plan design options as mechanisms to promote affordability and consumer choice. 

The proposed rule sets the stage for significant strategic and operational decisions for issuers and states ahead of the 2027 plan year. Health Management Associates (HMA), including Wakely, an HMA company, works with issuers modeling enrollment and risk shifts and to assist in pricing decisions. States also should consider the need for new strategies and approaches to adapt to federal policy changes that are expected for ACA Marketplace programs. 

For more information about the policies described in this article, support with scenario-based modeling of enrollment and data-informed strategy development for 2027 and beyond, please contact our experts Michael Cohen, Lina Rashid, or Zach Sherman. 

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Outlook 2026: Medicare Advantage Advance Notice—What It Means for the 2027 Market

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In this conversation, Andrea Maresca, Senior Principal at Health Management Associates (HMA), caught up with Tim Courtney, Director, Wakely, and Jonathan Blum, Co-Founder & Managing Partner at Health Transformation Strategies, LLC, to unpack the biggest questions emerging from the Calendar Year (CY) 2027 Medicare Advantage (MA) and Part D Advance Notice. Of particular interest was the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’s (CMS’s) proposed risk adjustment and diagnosis source changes, which are drawing significant attention across the industry. 

Q: The headline is “flat” payments. How should the market interpret CMS’s projected rate change? 

Tim Courtney: CMS projects a net average payment change of just +0.09 percent for CY 2027—about $700 million (M). The effective growth rate is about 4.97 percent, but it’s largely offset by risk model and normalization changes and the proposed diagnosis source policy. 

Jon Blum: Exactly. It’s important to note that CMS’s impact projections are based on the change in its average payments. Its proposed policies will have much more far-reaching distributional impacts, depending on the diagnoses of their enrolled members. At the same time CMS recently proposed changes to its Star Ratings methodologies. Over time, we could see quite significant changes to the balance of Medicare Advantage payments distributed across the country that could significantly affect benefit offerings and premium amounts. 

Q: What’s most surprising in the Advance Notice for 2027? 

Blum: The diagnosis source tightening is the big one. CMS proposes excluding diagnoses from “unlinked Chart Review Records” from risk score calculation starting in CY 2027. That signals a continued progression by the agency toward encounter-anchored data integrity. Assuming this policy is finalized, Medicare Advantage plans must continue to invest in systems to respond to CMS’s program integrity focus. 

Courtney: And it’s not only chart review. CMS also proposes excluding diagnoses from audio-only services for Part C and similarly for Part D. Operationally, that’s a big deal. Plans need to understand where diagnoses originate, how they’re supported, and what the downstream risk adjustment factor (RAF) impact looks like by segment and provider channel. 

Q: The Wakely team estimates a different “feel” than CMS’s topline. What does Wakely’s analysis add? 

Courtney: Wakely’s summary helps translate CMS components into both benchmark and plan payment change. 

Blum: This point is really key. Wakely’s analysis flags that rebasing/repricing impacts aren’t fully reflected yet, which means county-level outcomes can diverge materially once the final Rate Announcement is released. The rebasing could be particularly volatile this year as CMS adjusts for rural emergency hospital payments and the removal of anomalous and suspect DME claims. Both adjustments vary by geographic area. 

Q: How should plans think about bid strategy and benefit pressure for 2027? 

Courtney: The tighter risk adjustment environment could squeeze rebates and supplemental benefit richness—especially if bids don’t adjust quickly. Wakely estimates risk-adjusted bid and rebate revenue is down roughly 0.35 percent under a set of simplifying assumptions, underscoring the margin sensitivity. 

Practically this means plans should run a few scenarios: 1) RAF compression from diagnosis source changes, 2) normalization updates, and 3) Star-related shifts—even if the Star change is estimated to be small nationally. 

Blum: I’d add provider contracting and clinical program return on investment (ROI) will likely be an even greater focus for Medicare Advantage plans. When risk score lift is constrained, the value of medical cost management and quality performance becomes more important. We have seen tremendous pushback by healthcare providers over the greater use of prior authorization, with some major health systems dropping their contracts with Medicare Advantage plans altogether. Medicare Advantage plans will have to carefully balance the need to reduce medical expenditures and maintain their provider networks to attract enrollment. Establishing strong partnerships with provider systems will be more important than ever. 

Q: What do plans need most right now? 

Courtney: This is where integrated strategy and actuarial and policy expertise really matter. HMA is supporting stakeholders with payment impact modeling, scenario analysis, and advisory services tied to benchmark rebasing, risk adjustment, Star Ratings, product strategy, and Part D payment policy, so clients can translate the Notice into concrete bid and operating decisions. 

From Wakely’s side, the detailed benchmarking and methodology interpretation helps clients quantify what CMS’s technical updates mean in dollar terms and across geographies. 

The CY 2027 Advance Notice is also a reminder that average impacts hide portfolio impacts. The plans that model “where the change hits” (diagnosis sources, provider channels, county mix, Stars trajectory) will be best positioned heading into April’s final Rate Announcement. 

Blum: And from a policy lens, plans need to connect the dots. CMS’s proposed rate notice is both an articulation of its current priorities and continued progression toward more payment accuracy, encounter-linked data, and program integrity. Medicare Advantage plans should be both prepared to operationalize these policies and to work with the agency to ensure its policies better serve Medicare beneficiaries. 

Medicare Advantage plan leaders will be those organizations that operationalize these policy directions early, constructively engage in the policy process, and form far stronger partnerships with health care providers. 

You can find more insights on the important proposed changes in plan payments, risk adjustment, and other financial and regulatory requirements for 2027 in Wakely’s summary analysis, Advance Notice of Methodological Changes for CY 2027 MA Capitation Rates and Part C and Part D Payment Policies. 

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Tending the Embers: Staying Ready for Medicare Advantage RADV Audits

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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a memo January 27, 2026, with updates on the agency’s approach to checking whether Medicare Advantage (MA) plans are being paid correctly. These reviews are conducted through Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) audits, which help CMS confirm that the diagnoses MA plans report are supported by medical records. 

The January 2026 memo signals that CMS intends to honor its commitment to strengthen oversight of MA payments, including accelerating and expanding the use of RADV audits and using AI (artificial intelligence) to streamline human coding reviews. MA organizations must now prepare to respond to the RADV audit notice within the required five-month window, while balancing their other risk-adjustment programs. 

In this article, we explain the rapidly evolving landscape affecting RADV audits. Wakely, an HMA company, addresses what these changes mean for MA organizations and key considerations to ensure they are prepared for the upcoming enhancements to federal program integrity initiatives. 

Overview of CMS’ RADV Refresh 

CMS announced a major shift in May 2025: All MA plans will undergo RADV audits—not just a small sample as before. These audits look for cases in which diagnosis information submitted by a plan does not match the documentation in the patient’s medical record. When this happens, CMS may decide the plan was overpaid and require repayment. Historically, CMS audits have identified widespread diagnosis-code documentation errors, resulting in significant revenue recoupment from MA plans. 

The 2025 announcement creates a framework for additional risk for MA plans, which could shift to risk-bearing provider groups. As we explained in an earlier article, key components of that announcement include: 

  • All MA plans will be audited starting with Payment Year (PY) 2018. 
  • CMS committed to accelerating audits by adding more staff and using new technology. 
  • CMS planned to use “extrapolation”—meaning if errors were found in a small sample of records, the error rate could be applied to the full population, which could lead to much larger repayment amounts. 
  • CMS also planned to eliminate the fee-for-service (FFS) adjuster—a policy that previously helped reduce the amount a plan would have to repay. This proposal would increase financial risk for plans. 

Both the use of extrapolation and the removal of the FFS adjuster were later challenged in court. 

Legal Challenge 

In September 2023, Humana sued CMS in federal court, arguing that the 2023 RADV final rule, which allowed extrapolation and removed the FFS adjuster, was put into place without following proper federal rulemaking procedures. On September 25, 2025, the court agreed with Humana and vacated certain parts of this final rule, meaning certain parts of the rule are no longer in effect. 

CMS appealed the ruling on November 1, 2025, which has created uncertainty about how RADV audits will work in future years. 

Navigating the Legal and Regulatory Changes in Early 2026 

The court did not say that extrapolation or elimination of the FFS adjuster is illegal—only that CMS did not follow the required process for changing the rules. Hence, the 2023 RADV final rule cannot take effect unless CMS wins its appeal or reissues the policy using the proper steps. 

In its January 2026 Health Plan Management System (HPMS) memo, CMS stated that it will comply with the order while it is in effect. 

The pending litigation does not diminish CMS’s broader commitment to increased audit activity and heightened scrutiny of MA risk-adjustment practices. 

Effect of the Ruling. During RADV audits, CMS selects a sample of enrollees and requests corresponding medical records from the MA plan. These records are reviewed to confirm that the documented diagnoses meet CMS requirements. If unsupported diagnoses are found, CMS may recalculate payments and recover overpayments from the health plan. This audit process maintains program integrity and ensures accurate payments. 

Plans that submit incomplete records could owe significant repayments to CMS. 

CMS’s January 2026 memo clarifies how the agency plans to roll out additional RADV audits starting with PY 2020. CMS also addresses the agency’s plans to:  

  • Reduce burden on plans and providers, for example by extending the submission window  
  • Balance the volume of medical record submissions needing review by using smaller sample sizes where appropriate 
  • Use AI to further accelerate the review process 

Preparing for What’s Next 

Given CMS’s stated direction and the still unsettled litigation environment, MA plans should remain vigilant and audit ready.

Key steps include: 

  • Prioritizing timely and complete chart submission processes 
  • Strengthening internal criteria to identify and prioritize charts most likely to support diagnoses 
  • Improving documentation and coding accuracy through provider engagement 
  • Conducting proactive self‑audits to identify potential vulnerabilities 
  • Partnering with expert RADV consultants to navigate audit strategy, documentation, and submission readiness 

Connect with Us 

Wakely assists plans with their RADV initiatives and development of robust RADV playbooks. For more information about Wakely’s RADV playbooks, contact Debbie Conboy. 

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Congress Advances FY 2026 HHS Appropriations Bill with Health Extenders and PBM Reforms

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On February 3, 2026, Congress finalized federal funding for fiscal year (FY) 2026, with the House passing the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA), 2026, with a vote of 217-214, following Senate approval last week. The president signed the CAA (H.R. 7148) shortly thereafter. The law provides full-year appropriations for the Departments of Health and Human Services (HHS), Housing and Urban Development, Labor, and several other departments. 

This year’s HHS funding bill is notable not only for what it includes, but also for what it omits. It restores or maintains funding for key public health and research agencies previously proposed for elimination in the president’s FY 2026 budget request, extends several healthcare programs, and contains a significant package of pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) reforms. All of this activity comes as the Administration announces new grant programs and policy efforts related to its signature priorities. 

In this article, we review the major funding and policies approved in the HHS spending bill. We also address key considerations for healthcare organizations as they anticipate downstream funding and policy developments and develop advocacy initiatives for federal FY 2027 bills. 

HHS Funding Levels and Direction 

The bill provides $116.8 billion for HHS, an increase of $210 million over FY 2025, and rejects large-scale structural reorganizations proposed in the president’s FY 2026 budget. This provision preserves funding for the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Health Resources & Services Administration (HRSA), and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) 

Table 1. HHS Agency Funding Highlights, FY 2026 

Agency  FY 2026 Funding  (+/-) Compared with FY 2025 
Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) $3.7 billion +$58 million  
CDC $9.2 billion level funding 
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), administrative expenses only  $3.7 billion level funding  
 HRSA $8.9 billion +$415 million  
National Institutes of Health (NIH) $48.7 billion  +$929 million  
SAMHSA $7.4 billion  +$65 million  

The bill also extends mandatory funding for community health centers, special diabetes programs, the National Health Service Corps, and Teaching Health Center Graduate Medical Education. 

PBM Reforms in the Package 

In one closely watched area of federal policymaking, the FY 2026 package includes a substantial set of PBM-related reforms that largely mirror the bipartisan package negotiated but not enacted in December 2024. These reforms have implications across Medicare Part D, commercial insurance, and employer-sponsored plans. 

The legislation contains the following PBM reforms: 

  • Prohibits PBMs from deriving remuneration linked to drug prices for Medicare-covered Part D drugs 
  • Restricts spread pricing in Medicaid, eliminating a major driver of PBM revenue 
  • Requires contractual transparency, mandating that PBMs clearly define pricing terms in agreements with Part D plan sponsors 
  • Adds new PBM reporting obligations, including drug price reporting and rebate disclosures 
  • Requires 100 percent passthrough of rebates in ERISA-regulated plans for new, renewed, or extended contracts beginning 30 months after enactment 
  • Expands audit rights for plan sponsors 
  • Codifies the “any willing pharmacy” requirement for Medicare plan sponsors 

These provisions position 2026 as a consequential year for PBM regulation, increasing transparency, strengthening plan leverage, and heightening HHS oversight. 

Healthcare Extenders and Program Reauthorizations 

The bill includes a broad set of Medicaid, Medicare, and public health program extenders, affecting providers, patients, states, and managed care plans. 

Medicaid 

  • Postpones reductions in the Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) allotments until FY 2028 
  • Changes the DSH cap calculation to broaden which patient costs count toward Medicaid shortfall 
  • Requires states to develop and implement a process to allow certain out-of-state pediatric providers to deliver services without additional screening for three years 
  • Removes age limits on Medicaid’s Ticket to Work program, allowing adults older than age 65 to participate and requires state compliance by January 1, 2028 
  • Establishes new maternity care reporting requirements for rural hospitals, with dedicated federal funding for hospitals and states to comply with the reporting 

Medicare 

Congress extends several key programs and payment provisions, including: 

  • Telehealth flexibilities through December 31, 2027 
  • Incentive payments for participation in eligible alternative payment models through payment year 2028 (for performance year 2026) and applies an adjustment amount of 3.1 percent for 2028 
  • Acute Hospital Care at Home waivers through 2030 
  • Low-volume and Medicare-dependent hospital payment adjustments 
  • The 1.0 work geographic practice cost index floor used in the calculation of payments under the Medicare physician fee schedule through December 31, 2026 
  • Add-on payments for ambulance services 
  • Continuation of Part D coverage for certain antivirals and modifications to hospice payment caps 

Behavioral Health Policy 

The appropriations bill was finalized as the administration announced new funding and policy initiatives to support behavioral health, crisis services, workforce expansion, and youth mental health—efforts mirrored in SAMHSA’s increased appropriations. 

SAMHSA’s $7.4 billion budget includes: 

  • $1.6 billion for State Opioid Response grants 
  • $1.01 billion for the Mental Health Block Grant 
  • $535 million for the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline 

Considerations for Stakeholders 

Federal funding and policy developments affect state budget dynamics as many states are now releasing 2026–2027 budget proposals as well as the operational and growth plans of healthcare organizations and partners. 

A few key takeaways from the FY 2026 funding bill include: 

  • Federal appropriations signal congressional and administration priorities and have downstream impact on upcoming rounds of grant cycles, including SAMSHA and HRSA awards. 
  • The approved funding and certain policy extensions provide operational stability and reduce near-term fiscal pressure, such as the further delay of Medicaid DSH cuts. The extra time will allow healthcare entities to prepare for future reductions and plan for financial sustainability. 
  • Agency and program funding emphasize oversight, program integrity, and compliance. In addition, fraud and program integrity priorities are woven into certain new policies and program extensions, including PBM reforms, flexibility for pediatric care across state borders, and rural maternity cost reporting requirements, among others. 

Connect with Us 

If you would like deeper analysis or state and stakeholder-specific effects, HMA’s policy experts are available to assist. 

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HMA’s Take on 2026 ACA Marketplace Open Enrollment Snapshot

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On January 28, 2026, the Centers for Medicaid & Medicare Services (CMS) released its second national snapshot of 2026 Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace Open Enrollment (OE) activity. While this update is not a final accounting of enrollment activity, it is likely to be the last OE federal data release for some time and offers an early look at how enrollment trends are shifting in the wake of expired enhanced premium tax credits and new eligibility standards under the 2025 budget reconciliation act (P.L. 119-21, OBBBA). 

In this article, Health Management Associates (HMA) and Wakely, an HMA company, highlight findings from their analysis of the 2026 OE activity and compare this activity with 2025 data. This analysis builds on the findings in their January 2026 analysis (here) and will provide important context for the 2027 plan year. 

Overall Enrollment Trends 

CMS reports that 2026 plan selections decreased by 5 percent from 2025, with enrollment declining across both new and returning consumers. New sign-ups dropped by 14 percent and renewals fell by 3 percent (Table 1). State-based Marketplace (SBM) enrollment dipped modestly, though many SBMs were still enrolling consumers in late January. 

Table 1. Comparison of 2026 and 2025 Open Enrollment 

 2026 2025 Net Change 
Total 22,973,219 24,166,491 (1,193,272) 
New Consumers 3,382,189 3,938,907 (556,718) 
Returning Consumers 19,591,030 20,227,584 (636,554) 

Variation Across State-Based and Federally Facilitated Marketplaces 

Enrollment patterns varied substantially across states. 

SBMs: 

  • New Mexico saw the largest year-over-year increase (14%), attributed to state-funded subsidies designed to offset the loss of enhanced premium tax credits (ePTCs). 
  • Georgia experienced a 14 percent decline, the steepest drop among SBMs. 

Federally Facilitated Marketplace (FFM) States: 

  • Overall, FFM enrollment fell 5 percent. 
  • Texas led FFM states with a 5 percent increase in plan selections. 
  • Ohio and North Carolina experienced substantial enrollment declines, 20 percent and 22 percent respectively. 

What This Tells Us—and What It Doesn’t Tell Us Yet 

FFM data are as of January 15, 2026, and measure plan selections after the OE period ended. Within the FFM, state-by-state enrollment activity varied significantly. Some of this variation is surprising and not readily explainable from the available data and will be a focus of future HMA and Wakely analyses. 

The data include neither effectuated enrollment nor paid enrollment—data which will be key to fully understanding 2026 enrollment trends and the impact of changing federal policies, including the ePTC expiration and changing eligibility standards introduced in 2026 as the result of OBBBA. 

Early SBM data suggest significantly higher cancellation and disenrollment rates than in previous years. 

SBMs are sharing that they expect substantial affordability-driven voluntary and nonpayment terminations over the first half of 2026. 

Monitoring paid enrollments, attrition, and grace period dynamics, including retro-terminations, will be key to understanding market dynamics and 2027 pricing. 

Connect with Us 

HMA and Wakley experts have considerable experience working with states, insurers, and federal policymakers with jurisdiction over the Marketplace. We work with these entities to inform, analyze, and shape federal policies and conduct impact analyses on pricing, enrollment, administration, and operations. HMA also provides strategic and project management support for the implementation of finalized policies. 

Please contact Michael Cohen, Taylor Gehrke, or Zachary Sherman with questions, follow-up, or if you would like expert assistance exploring any of the issues discussed in this post.

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2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment: Where the Numbers Currently Stand

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On January 28, 2026, the Centers for Medicaid & Medicare Services (CMS) posted a national snapshot detailing 2026 Open Enrollment (OE) results. Although this report is neither a complete nor final picture of 2026 Marketplace enrollment activity, it is likely to be the last OE data CMS publishes for some time. A comparison of 2026 and 2025 Open Enrollment results can be found in Table 1.

Table 1. Comparison of 2026 and 2025 Open Enrollment

20262025Net Change
Total22,973,21924,166,491(1,193,272)
New Consumers3,382,1893,938,907(556,718)
Returning Consumers19,591,03020,227,584(636,554)

A summary of our analysis on these 2026 OE results and how they compare with 2025 data can be found below. This analysis builds on the findings in Wakely’sIndividual ACA Open Enrollment Insights So Far from January 2026.

  • Overall, topline plan selections are down from last year. Total enrollment decreased by 5%, with new enrollment down 14% and renewals down 3%.
  • State-based marketplace (SBM) enrollment declined modestly, but the data are as of January 10, and many SBMs are continuing to enroll people through the end of January.
    • New Mexico plan selections increased by 14% over last year, the largest increase of any state, driven by state-funded subsidies mirroring the expired enhanced premium tax credits (ePTCs).
    • Georgia plan selections decreased by 14%, the largest SBM year-over-year decline.
  • The federally facilitated marketplace (FFM) experienced an overall decrease of 5%. FFM data are as of January 15 and therefore measures plan selections after the OE period has ended. Within the FFM, state-by-state results varied significantly.
    • Texas led all FFM states with a 5% increase, whereas Ohio and North Carolina experienced 20% and 22% decreases in enrollment, respectively.
    • Some of this variation is surprising and not readily explainable from the available data and will be a focus of future Health Management Associates and Wakely analyses.
  • The data include neither effectuated enrollment nor paid enrollment—data which will be key to fully understanding 2026 enrollment trends and the impact of changing federal policies, including the ePTC expiration and changing eligibility standards introduced in 2026 as the result of P.L. 119-21 (OBBBA).
    • Initial data from SBMs suggest significantly higher rates of cancellations and disenrollments than in previous years.
    • SBMs are also sharing that they expect high rates of affordability-driven voluntary and non-payment terminations throughout the first half of 2026.
    • Monitoring paid enrollments, attrition, and grace period dynamics, including retro-terminations, will be key to understanding market dynamics and 2027 pricing.

HMA and Wakley experts have considerable experience working with states, insurers, and federal policymakers with jurisdiction over the Marketplace. We work with these entities to inform, analyze, and influence federal policies and conduct impact analyses on pricing, enrollment, administration, and operations. HMA also provides strategic and project management support for the implementation of finalized policies.

Please contact Taylor Gehrke at [email protected], Michael Cohen at [email protected], or Zachary Sherman at [email protected] with questions, follow-up, or if you would like expert assistance exploring any of the issues discussed in this post.

Related Resources:

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CMS ACCESS Model: A New On-Ramp to Outcomes-Based, Tech-Enabled Care in Traditional Medicare

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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Innovation Center recently published applications for its new ACCESS Model (Advancing Chronic Care with Effective, Scalable Solutions), a 10-year voluntary initiative beginning July 2026. The model is designed to advance outcomes-based, technology-enabled care delivery in Original Medicare and aligns with the Innovation Center’s priorities of strengthening prevention, empowering beneficiaries, and promoting performance-based competition. ACCESS is particularly suited to organizations with mature clinical operations and data infrastructure, offering a new pathway for tech-supported services. 

This article summarizes the model’s design, highlights key considerations for prospective applicants, and addresses common questions our Medicare and technology experts fielded during a recent Health Management Associates (HMA)/Leavitt Partners webinar. 

What the ACCESS Model Is Testing 

ACCESS evaluates whether Outcome-Aligned Payments (OAPs)—recurring payments contingent on measurable clinical improvement—can reduce spending while maintaining or improving quality for beneficiaries with chronic conditions. The model tests whether incentivizing technology supported care can produce reliable clinical outcomes while complementing traditional care delivery. 

Who may participate? Organizations must be Medicare Part B–enrolled providers or suppliers (excluding DMEPOS [Durable Medical Equipment, Prosthetics, Orthotics, and Supplies] and labs). Participants may enroll beneficiaries directly, operate across multiple clinical tracks, and manage all qualifying conditions within each selected track. Beneficiary participation is voluntary, and individuals may switch ACCESS participants every 90 days. 

Clinical tracks. At launch, the four clinical tracks reflect high-prevalence chronic conditions with established care pathways and strong evidence for technology-supported interventions: 

  • Early Cardio-Kidney-Metabolic (eCKM) 
  • Cardio-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) 
  • Musculoskeletal (MSK) 
  • Behavioral Health (BH) 

Payment. OAPs vary by track and performance period. CMS pays a portion prospectively each quarter and withholds 50 percent pending reconciliation based on: 

  • Clinical outcomes attainment: The percentage of aligned beneficiaries who complete the 12‑month performance period and achieve track‑specific clinical targets relative to their baseline. 
  • Substitute‑spend test: Ensures beneficiaries do not receive duplicative fee-for-service (FFS) services for conditions managed under ACCESS. 

Technology and data exchange. ACCESS takes a tech-forward approach. Key expectations include use of Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR®) based Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for eligibility, consent, claims sharing, and care coordination—part of the broader federal push to modernize the health data ecosystem. CMS also plans to publish a public directory that lists participants, tracks, cost-sharing policies, and risk-adjusted outcomes to enable consumer and clinician choice. 

Regulatory coordination. To complement ACCESS and expand the pipeline of technology-supported interventions, the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) TEMPO (Technology-Enabled Meaningful Patient Outcomes) pilot allows selected US-based digital health device manufacturers to participate while generating real-world evidence. Up to 40 device manufacturers may participate across clinical areas. 

This coordinated CMSFDA effort is intended to reduce barriers to innovation and accelerate access to safe, effective digital tools that can support chronic disease management. 

Key Considerations for Applicants 

Program integrity and fraud/abuse. CMS has emphasized program integrity across Medicare and Medicaid, and ACCESS reflects that emphasis. Applicants and their parent organizations should expect rigorous screening. Participants must also operationalize controls to pass the substitute spend test and maintain auditable evidence of outcomes and beneficiary consent. 

Overlap with Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) and other models. Patients may participate in ACCESS and be aligned with an ACO simultaneously; however, “participant overlap” raises important operational and financial issues. ACCESS includes an FFS exclusion policy that prohibits participants or affiliated entities from billing Medicare FFS for any services delivered to the same beneficiaries for the duration of their ACCESS episode. As a result, traditional providers, ACO-aligned clinicians, and integrated delivery systems must assess whether they can segment patient populations or if partnering is more feasible. 

Eligibility and clinical scope. ACCESS is focused on relatively stable, chronically ill beneficiaries and excludes those with more acute/severe conditions. Participants must accept responsibility for all qualifying conditions a beneficiary has within a track. 

Outcomes performance. The ACCESS Model places substantial emphasis on clinical performance and care coordination. Participants are paid in full only if enough patients hit outcomes targets. Early cohorts will likely skew toward organizations with mature clinical protocols, robust engagement models, and demonstrated outcomes. Applicants should be financially prepared to tolerate withholds, beneficiary switching, and follow-on period payment reductions after year one. 

Digital infrastructure and interoperability. ACCESS presumes API-driven data exchange, including consent capture, eligibility checks, claims/clinical data integration, and bidirectional information sharing with the patient’s broader care team. Applicants should ensure they have a FHIR API server and meet the requirements described in the CMS Health Tech Ecosystem pledge.

Go-to-market and referral strategy. Beneficiary alignment is voluntary and will be facilitated by CMS’s planned public directory with risk-adjusted outcomes. Access participants will benefit from strong referral relationships—especially with ACOs and primary care providers—both to enroll eligible beneficiaries and to minimize substitute services. A field strategy grounded in evidence, patient engagement, and interoperability with local providers is critical to success. 

Connect with Us 

Applications for the first ACCESS Model performance period are due April 1, 2026, with model launch in July 2026; applications submitted later would start January 1, 2027. Because ACCESS is a rolling, decade-long model, some organizations may choose to stage entry. 

ACCESS is the most explicit Innovation Center opportunity to date on outcomes-based, tech-enabled chronic care in Traditional Medicare. It offers digital health and advanced care organizations a direct line to FFS beneficiaries with payment tied to results, not activities. Success will favor teams that combine clinical excellence, consumer-grade engagement, and API-level interoperability, as well as manage program integrity, ACO overlap, and beneficiary churn. 

For questions or support assessing readiness, developing an application, or operationalizing the model, contact Amy Bassano, Ryan Howells, or Kate de Lisle. 

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CMS Releases 2027 Advance Notice with Medicare Advantage and Part D Rates

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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released the Calendar Year (CY) 2027 Advance Notice and Payment Policies for the Medicare Advantage (Part C) Part D Prescription Drug Program on January 26, 2026. The Advance Notice begins CMS’s annual rate-setting cycle and describes proposed updates to Medicare Advantage (MA) growth rates, benchmark rebasing, risk adjustment, Star Ratings, and Part D payment parameters. CMS previously released a proposed rule in November 2025 that included policy changes to the Star Ratings system and enrollment policies for MA and Part D starting in contract year 2027. (Read the Health Management Associates (HMA) summary here.) 

Comments on the Advance Notice are due February 25, 2026, and CMS will publish the final CY 2027 rate announcement no later than April 6, 2026.  

This article provides an early look at the proposed methodological updates and draft capitation rates. Wakely, an HMA Company, will publish a detailed analysis of the Advance Notice in early February. 

Payment Impact on Medicare Advantage Organizations 

CMS estimates a national per capita MA growth rate of 5.10 percent from 2026 to 2027, with fee-for-service (FFS) non-end-stage renal disease (non-ESRD) growth of 5.10 percent and FFS dialysis end-stage renal disease (ESRD) growth of 6.17 percent. 

The 5.10 percent growth rate reflects projected increases in per capita FFS Medicare spending for beneficiaries who are aged/have disabilities and serves as the primary driver of 2027 benchmark updates, interacting with rebasing and risk adjustment changes to determine final capitation payments. The growth rate reflects updates to how CMS pays for skin substitutes in the 2026 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule. These updates resulted in significantly lower projected costs and materially reduced the growth rate. 

These preliminary estimates inform the development of MA benchmarks and may change in the final rate announcement. 

Table 1. Estimated Impact of Proposed Payment Changes on Medicare Advantage Plan Payments, CY 2027 

                                        Year-to-Year Percentage Change 
Impact  CY 2027 Advance Notice  
Effective Growth Rate4.97%
Rebasing/Re-pricingTBD
Change in Star Ratings-0.03%
MA Coding Pattern Adjustment0%
Risk Model Revision and Normalization-3.32%
Sources of Diagnoses-1.53%
Expected Average Change0.09%
Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D Advance Notice. January 26, 2026. Available at: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2027-medicare-advantage-part-d-advance-notice. 

Medicare Advantage Benchmarks, Rebasing, and Risk Adjustment 

The Advance Notice describes CMS’s approach and changes that will affect payment to plans, including: 

  • Excluding from the risk adjustment process diagnoses submitted from chart reviews with unlinked claim records. In the Fact Sheet, CMS estimates this change will reduce Part C payments by 1.53 percent. 
  • Rebasing county FFS rates for 2027 using 2020–2024 claims data, continuing CMS’s practice of updating benchmarks annually to reflect the most current FFS experience. The Advance Notice also reiterates the statutory framework for calculating benchmarks, including applicable and specified amounts, benchmark caps, and quality bonus payments. 
  • Updating the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) and Prescription Drug Hierarchical Condition Category (RxHCC) risk adjustment models and associated normalization factors for CY 2027 and continuing to apply the statutory MA coding pattern difference adjustment to account for systematic differences in diagnosis coding between MA and FFS. 

Quality Bonus Payments, Star Ratings, and Part D Updates 

CMS states that contracts with 4 or more Stars receive a 5 percentage-point quality bonus, while new and low-enrollment contracts receive a 3.5percentage-point bonus. The Advance Notice also includes updates related to Part C and Part D Star Ratings measures and methodological refinements. 

For Part D, CMS outlines proposed updates to the defined standard benefit parameters for CY 2027, as well as changes to Part D risk adjustment, normalization, premium stabilization, reinsurance, and risk-sharing, with additional policy context provided in the Contract Year 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D proposed rule. 

Connect with Us 

The CY 2027 Advance Notice provides early signals on benchmark growth, rebasing, and payment methodology changes that will shape MA and Part D payments in 2027. Stakeholders should begin evaluating the potential implications for bid development, benefit design, and financial performance as CMS moves toward finalizing rates in April. 

HMA supports Medicare Advantage and Part D stakeholders with payment impact modeling, scenario analysis, and strategic advisory services related to benchmark rebasing, risk adjustment, Star Ratings, and Part D payment policy to help organizations prepare for the CY 2027 rate announcement. 

For details about the finalized payment and policy rules, contact our featured experts,  Tim Courtney and Rachel Stewart. 

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