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Blog

Tending the Embers: Staying Ready for Medicare Advantage RADV Audits

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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a memo January 27, 2026, with updates on the agency’s approach to checking whether Medicare Advantage (MA) plans are being paid correctly. These reviews are conducted through Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) audits, which help CMS confirm that the diagnoses MA plans report are supported by medical records. 

The January 2026 memo signals that CMS intends to honor its commitment to strengthen oversight of MA payments, including accelerating and expanding the use of RADV audits and using AI (artificial intelligence) to streamline human coding reviews. MA organizations must now prepare to respond to the RADV audit notice within the required five-month window, while balancing their other risk-adjustment programs. 

In this article, we explain the rapidly evolving landscape affecting RADV audits. Wakely, an HMA company, addresses what these changes mean for MA organizations and key considerations to ensure they are prepared for the upcoming enhancements to federal program integrity initiatives. 

Overview of CMS’ RADV Refresh 

CMS announced a major shift in May 2025: All MA plans will undergo RADV audits—not just a small sample as before. These audits look for cases in which diagnosis information submitted by a plan does not match the documentation in the patient’s medical record. When this happens, CMS may decide the plan was overpaid and require repayment. Historically, CMS audits have identified widespread diagnosis-code documentation errors, resulting in significant revenue recoupment from MA plans. 

The 2025 announcement creates a framework for additional risk for MA plans, which could shift to risk-bearing provider groups. As we explained in an earlier article, key components of that announcement include: 

  • All MA plans will be audited starting with Payment Year (PY) 2018. 
  • CMS committed to accelerating audits by adding more staff and using new technology. 
  • CMS planned to use “extrapolation”—meaning if errors were found in a small sample of records, the error rate could be applied to the full population, which could lead to much larger repayment amounts. 
  • CMS also planned to eliminate the fee-for-service (FFS) adjuster—a policy that previously helped reduce the amount a plan would have to repay. This proposal would increase financial risk for plans. 

Both the use of extrapolation and the removal of the FFS adjuster were later challenged in court. 

Legal Challenge 

In September 2023, Humana sued CMS in federal court, arguing that the 2023 RADV final rule, which allowed extrapolation and removed the FFS adjuster, was put into place without following proper federal rulemaking procedures. On September 25, 2025, the court agreed with Humana and vacated certain parts of this final rule, meaning certain parts of the rule are no longer in effect. 

CMS appealed the ruling on November 1, 2025, which has created uncertainty about how RADV audits will work in future years. 

Navigating the Legal and Regulatory Changes in Early 2026 

The court did not say that extrapolation or elimination of the FFS adjuster is illegal—only that CMS did not follow the required process for changing the rules. Hence, the 2023 RADV final rule cannot take effect unless CMS wins its appeal or reissues the policy using the proper steps. 

In its January 2026 Health Plan Management System (HPMS) memo, CMS stated that it will comply with the order while it is in effect. 

The pending litigation does not diminish CMS’s broader commitment to increased audit activity and heightened scrutiny of MA risk-adjustment practices. 

Effect of the Ruling. During RADV audits, CMS selects a sample of enrollees and requests corresponding medical records from the MA plan. These records are reviewed to confirm that the documented diagnoses meet CMS requirements. If unsupported diagnoses are found, CMS may recalculate payments and recover overpayments from the health plan. This audit process maintains program integrity and ensures accurate payments. 

Plans that submit incomplete records could owe significant repayments to CMS. 

CMS’s January 2026 memo clarifies how the agency plans to roll out additional RADV audits starting with PY 2020. CMS also addresses the agency’s plans to:  

  • Reduce burden on plans and providers, for example by extending the submission window  
  • Balance the volume of medical record submissions needing review by using smaller sample sizes where appropriate 
  • Use AI to further accelerate the review process 

Preparing for What’s Next 

Given CMS’s stated direction and the still unsettled litigation environment, MA plans should remain vigilant and audit ready.

Key steps include: 

  • Prioritizing timely and complete chart submission processes 
  • Strengthening internal criteria to identify and prioritize charts most likely to support diagnoses 
  • Improving documentation and coding accuracy through provider engagement 
  • Conducting proactive self‑audits to identify potential vulnerabilities 
  • Partnering with expert RADV consultants to navigate audit strategy, documentation, and submission readiness 

Connect with Us 

Wakely assists plans with their RADV initiatives and development of robust RADV playbooks. For more information about Wakely’s RADV playbooks, contact Debbie Conboy

Blog

Congress Advances FY 2026 HHS Appropriations Bill with Health Extenders and PBM Reforms

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On February 3, 2026, Congress finalized federal funding for fiscal year (FY) 2026, with the House passing the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA), 2026, with a vote of 217-214, following Senate approval last week. The president signed the CAA (H.R. 7148) shortly thereafter. The law provides full-year appropriations for the Departments of Health and Human Services (HHS), Housing and Urban Development, Labor, and several other departments. 

This year’s HHS funding bill is notable not only for what it includes, but also for what it omits. It restores or maintains funding for key public health and research agencies previously proposed for elimination in the president’s FY 2026 budget request, extends several healthcare programs, and contains a significant package of pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) reforms. All of this activity comes as the Administration announces new grant programs and policy efforts related to its signature priorities. 

In this article, we review the major funding and policies approved in the HHS spending bill. We also address key considerations for healthcare organizations as they anticipate downstream funding and policy developments and develop advocacy initiatives for federal FY 2027 bills. 

HHS Funding Levels and Direction 

The bill provides $116.8 billion for HHS, an increase of $210 million over FY 2025, and rejects large-scale structural reorganizations proposed in the president’s FY 2026 budget. This provision preserves funding for the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Health Resources & Services Administration (HRSA), and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) 

Table 1. HHS Agency Funding Highlights, FY 2026 

Agency  FY 2026 Funding  (+/-) Compared with FY 2025 
Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) $3.7 billion +$58 million  
CDC $9.2 billion level funding 
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), administrative expenses only  $3.7 billion level funding  
 HRSA $8.9 billion +$415 million  
National Institutes of Health (NIH) $48.7 billion  +$929 million  
SAMHSA $7.4 billion  +$65 million  

The bill also extends mandatory funding for community health centers, special diabetes programs, the National Health Service Corps, and Teaching Health Center Graduate Medical Education. 

PBM Reforms in the Package 

In one closely watched area of federal policymaking, the FY 2026 package includes a substantial set of PBM-related reforms that largely mirror the bipartisan package negotiated but not enacted in December 2024. These reforms have implications across Medicare Part D, commercial insurance, and employer-sponsored plans. 

The legislation contains the following PBM reforms: 

  • Prohibits PBMs from deriving remuneration linked to drug prices for Medicare-covered Part D drugs 
  • Restricts spread pricing in Medicaid, eliminating a major driver of PBM revenue 
  • Requires contractual transparency, mandating that PBMs clearly define pricing terms in agreements with Part D plan sponsors 
  • Adds new PBM reporting obligations, including drug price reporting and rebate disclosures 
  • Requires 100 percent passthrough of rebates in ERISA-regulated plans for new, renewed, or extended contracts beginning 30 months after enactment 
  • Expands audit rights for plan sponsors 
  • Codifies the “any willing pharmacy” requirement for Medicare plan sponsors 

These provisions position 2026 as a consequential year for PBM regulation, increasing transparency, strengthening plan leverage, and heightening HHS oversight. 

Healthcare Extenders and Program Reauthorizations 

The bill includes a broad set of Medicaid, Medicare, and public health program extenders, affecting providers, patients, states, and managed care plans. 

Medicaid 

  • Postpones reductions in the Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) allotments until FY 2028 
  • Changes the DSH cap calculation to broaden which patient costs count toward Medicaid shortfall 
  • Requires states to develop and implement a process to allow certain out-of-state pediatric providers to deliver services without additional screening for three years 
  • Removes age limits on Medicaid’s Ticket to Work program, allowing adults older than age 65 to participate and requires state compliance by January 1, 2028 
  • Establishes new maternity care reporting requirements for rural hospitals, with dedicated federal funding for hospitals and states to comply with the reporting 

Medicare 

Congress extends several key programs and payment provisions, including: 

  • Telehealth flexibilities through December 31, 2027 
  • Incentive payments for participation in eligible alternative payment models through payment year 2028 (for performance year 2026) and applies an adjustment amount of 3.1 percent for 2028 
  • Acute Hospital Care at Home waivers through 2030 
  • Low-volume and Medicare-dependent hospital payment adjustments 
  • The 1.0 work geographic practice cost index floor used in the calculation of payments under the Medicare physician fee schedule through December 31, 2026 
  • Add-on payments for ambulance services 
  • Continuation of Part D coverage for certain antivirals and modifications to hospice payment caps 

Behavioral Health Policy 

The appropriations bill was finalized as the administration announced new funding and policy initiatives to support behavioral health, crisis services, workforce expansion, and youth mental health—efforts mirrored in SAMHSA’s increased appropriations. 

SAMHSA’s $7.4 billion budget includes: 

  • $1.6 billion for State Opioid Response grants 
  • $1.01 billion for the Mental Health Block Grant 
  • $535 million for the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline 

Considerations for Stakeholders 

Federal funding and policy developments affect state budget dynamics as many states are now releasing 2026–2027 budget proposals as well as the operational and growth plans of healthcare organizations and partners. 

A few key takeaways from the FY 2026 funding bill include: 

  • Federal appropriations signal congressional and administration priorities and have downstream impact on upcoming rounds of grant cycles, including SAMSHA and HRSA awards. 
  • The approved funding and certain policy extensions provide operational stability and reduce near-term fiscal pressure, such as the further delay of Medicaid DSH cuts. The extra time will allow healthcare entities to prepare for future reductions and plan for financial sustainability. 
  • Agency and program funding emphasize oversight, program integrity, and compliance. In addition, fraud and program integrity priorities are woven into certain new policies and program extensions, including PBM reforms, flexibility for pediatric care across state borders, and rural maternity cost reporting requirements, among others. 

Connect with Us 

If you would like deeper analysis or state and stakeholder-specific effects, HMA’s policy experts are available to assist. 

Blog

HMA’s Take on 2026 ACA Marketplace Open Enrollment Snapshot

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On January 28, 2026, the Centers for Medicaid & Medicare Services (CMS) released its second national snapshot of 2026 Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace Open Enrollment (OE) activity. While this update is not a final accounting of enrollment activity, it is likely to be the last OE federal data release for some time and offers an early look at how enrollment trends are shifting in the wake of expired enhanced premium tax credits and new eligibility standards under the 2025 budget reconciliation act (P.L. 119-21, OBBBA). 

In this article, Health Management Associates (HMA) and Wakely, an HMA company, highlight findings from their analysis of the 2026 OE activity and compare this activity with 2025 data. This analysis builds on the findings in their January 2026 analysis (here) and will provide important context for the 2027 plan year

Overall Enrollment Trends 

CMS reports that 2026 plan selections decreased by 5 percent from 2025, with enrollment declining across both new and returning consumers. New sign-ups dropped by 14 percent and renewals fell by 3 percent (Table 1). State-based Marketplace (SBM) enrollment dipped modestly, though many SBMs were still enrolling consumers in late January. 

Table 1. Comparison of 2026 and 2025 Open Enrollment 

 2026 2025 Net Change 
Total 22,973,219 24,166,491 (1,193,272) 
New Consumers 3,382,189 3,938,907 (556,718) 
Returning Consumers 19,591,030 20,227,584 (636,554) 

Variation Across State-Based and Federally Facilitated Marketplaces 

Enrollment patterns varied substantially across states. 

SBMs: 

  • New Mexico saw the largest year-over-year increase (14%), attributed to state-funded subsidies designed to offset the loss of enhanced premium tax credits (ePTCs). 
  • Georgia experienced a 14 percent decline, the steepest drop among SBMs. 

Federally Facilitated Marketplace (FFM) States: 

  • Overall, FFM enrollment fell 5 percent. 
  • Texas led FFM states with a 5 percent increase in plan selections. 
  • Ohio and North Carolina experienced substantial enrollment declines, 20 percent and 22 percent respectively. 

What This Tells Us—and What It Doesn’t Tell Us Yet 

FFM data are as of January 15, 2026, and measure plan selections after the OE period ended. Within the FFM, state-by-state enrollment activity varied significantly. Some of this variation is surprising and not readily explainable from the available data and will be a focus of future HMA and Wakely analyses. 

The data include neither effectuated enrollment nor paid enrollment—data which will be key to fully understanding 2026 enrollment trends and the impact of changing federal policies, including the ePTC expiration and changing eligibility standards introduced in 2026 as the result of OBBBA. 

Early SBM data suggest significantly higher cancellation and disenrollment rates than in previous years. 

SBMs are sharing that they expect substantial affordability-driven voluntary and nonpayment terminations over the first half of 2026. 

Monitoring paid enrollments, attrition, and grace period dynamics, including retro-terminations, will be key to understanding market dynamics and 2027 pricing. 

Connect with Us 

HMA and Wakley experts have considerable experience working with states, insurers, and federal policymakers with jurisdiction over the Marketplace. We work with these entities to inform, analyze, and shape federal policies and conduct impact analyses on pricing, enrollment, administration, and operations. HMA also provides strategic and project management support for the implementation of finalized policies. 

Please contact Michael CohenTaylor Gehrke, or Zachary Sherman with questions, follow-up, or if you would like expert assistance exploring any of the issues discussed in this post.

Blog

2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment: Where the Numbers Currently Stand

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On January 28, 2026, the Centers for Medicaid & Medicare Services (CMS) posted a national snapshot detailing 2026 Open Enrollment (OE) results. Although this report is neither a complete nor final picture of 2026 Marketplace enrollment activity, it is likely to be the last OE data CMS publishes for some time. A comparison of 2026 and 2025 Open Enrollment results can be found in Table 1.

Table 1. Comparison of 2026 and 2025 Open Enrollment

20262025Net Change
Total22,973,21924,166,491(1,193,272)
New Consumers3,382,1893,938,907(556,718)
Returning Consumers19,591,03020,227,584(636,554)

A summary of our analysis on these 2026 OE results and how they compare with 2025 data can be found below. This analysis builds on the findings in Wakely’sIndividual ACA Open Enrollment Insights So Far from January 2026.

  • Overall, topline plan selections are down from last year. Total enrollment decreased by 5%, with new enrollment down 14% and renewals down 3%.
  • State-based marketplace (SBM) enrollment declined modestly, but the data are as of January 10, and many SBMs are continuing to enroll people through the end of January.
    • New Mexico plan selections increased by 14% over last year, the largest increase of any state, driven by state-funded subsidies mirroring the expired enhanced premium tax credits (ePTCs).
    • Georgia plan selections decreased by 14%, the largest SBM year-over-year decline.
  • The federally facilitated marketplace (FFM) experienced an overall decrease of 5%. FFM data are as of January 15 and therefore measures plan selections after the OE period has ended. Within the FFM, state-by-state results varied significantly.
    • Texas led all FFM states with a 5% increase, whereas Ohio and North Carolina experienced 20% and 22% decreases in enrollment, respectively.
    • Some of this variation is surprising and not readily explainable from the available data and will be a focus of future Health Management Associates and Wakely analyses.
  • The data include neither effectuated enrollment nor paid enrollment—data which will be key to fully understanding 2026 enrollment trends and the impact of changing federal policies, including the ePTC expiration and changing eligibility standards introduced in 2026 as the result of P.L. 119-21 (OBBBA).
    • Initial data from SBMs suggest significantly higher rates of cancellations and disenrollments than in previous years.
    • SBMs are also sharing that they expect high rates of affordability-driven voluntary and non-payment terminations throughout the first half of 2026.
    • Monitoring paid enrollments, attrition, and grace period dynamics, including retro-terminations, will be key to understanding market dynamics and 2027 pricing.

HMA and Wakley experts have considerable experience working with states, insurers, and federal policymakers with jurisdiction over the Marketplace. We work with these entities to inform, analyze, and influence federal policies and conduct impact analyses on pricing, enrollment, administration, and operations. HMA also provides strategic and project management support for the implementation of finalized policies.

Please contact Taylor Gehrke at [email protected], Michael Cohen at [email protected], or Zachary Sherman at [email protected] with questions, follow-up, or if you would like expert assistance exploring any of the issues discussed in this post.

Related Resources:

Blog

CMS ACCESS Model: A New On-Ramp to Outcomes-Based, Tech-Enabled Care in Traditional Medicare

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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Innovation Center recently published applications for its new ACCESS Model (Advancing Chronic Care with Effective, Scalable Solutions), a 10-year voluntary initiative beginning July 2026. The model is designed to advance outcomes-based, technology-enabled care delivery in Original Medicare and aligns with the Innovation Center’s priorities of strengthening prevention, empowering beneficiaries, and promoting performance-based competition. ACCESS is particularly suited to organizations with mature clinical operations and data infrastructure, offering a new pathway for tech-supported services. 

This article summarizes the model’s design, highlights key considerations for prospective applicants, and addresses common questions our Medicare and technology experts fielded during a recent Health Management Associates (HMA)/Leavitt Partners webinar

What the ACCESS Model Is Testing 

ACCESS evaluates whether Outcome-Aligned Payments (OAPs)—recurring payments contingent on measurable clinical improvement—can reduce spending while maintaining or improving quality for beneficiaries with chronic conditions. The model tests whether incentivizing technology supported care can produce reliable clinical outcomes while complementing traditional care delivery. 

Who may participate? Organizations must be Medicare Part B–enrolled providers or suppliers (excluding DMEPOS [Durable Medical Equipment, Prosthetics, Orthotics, and Supplies] and labs). Participants may enroll beneficiaries directly, operate across multiple clinical tracks, and manage all qualifying conditions within each selected track. Beneficiary participation is voluntary, and individuals may switch ACCESS participants every 90 days. 

Clinical tracks. At launch, the four clinical tracks reflect high-prevalence chronic conditions with established care pathways and strong evidence for technology-supported interventions: 

  • Early Cardio-Kidney-Metabolic (eCKM) 
  • Cardio-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) 
  • Musculoskeletal (MSK) 
  • Behavioral Health (BH) 

Payment. OAPs vary by track and performance period. CMS pays a portion prospectively each quarter and withholds 50 percent pending reconciliation based on: 

  • Clinical outcomes attainment: The percentage of aligned beneficiaries who complete the 12‑month performance period and achieve track‑specific clinical targets relative to their baseline. 
  • Substitute‑spend test: Ensures beneficiaries do not receive duplicative fee-for-service (FFS) services for conditions managed under ACCESS. 

Technology and data exchange. ACCESS takes a tech-forward approach. Key expectations include use of Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR®) based Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for eligibility, consent, claims sharing, and care coordination—part of the broader federal push to modernize the health data ecosystem. CMS also plans to publish a public directory that lists participants, tracks, cost-sharing policies, and risk-adjusted outcomes to enable consumer and clinician choice. 

Regulatory coordination. To complement ACCESS and expand the pipeline of technology-supported interventions, the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) TEMPO (Technology-Enabled Meaningful Patient Outcomes) pilot allows selected US-based digital health device manufacturers to participate while generating real-world evidence. Up to 40 device manufacturers may participate across clinical areas. 

This coordinated CMSFDA effort is intended to reduce barriers to innovation and accelerate access to safe, effective digital tools that can support chronic disease management. 

Key Considerations for Applicants 

Program integrity and fraud/abuse. CMS has emphasized program integrity across Medicare and Medicaid, and ACCESS reflects that emphasis. Applicants and their parent organizations should expect rigorous screening. Participants must also operationalize controls to pass the substitute spend test and maintain auditable evidence of outcomes and beneficiary consent. 

Overlap with Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) and other models. Patients may participate in ACCESS and be aligned with an ACO simultaneously; however, “participant overlap” raises important operational and financial issues. ACCESS includes an FFS exclusion policy that prohibits participants or affiliated entities from billing Medicare FFS for any services delivered to the same beneficiaries for the duration of their ACCESS episode. As a result, traditional providers, ACO-aligned clinicians, and integrated delivery systems must assess whether they can segment patient populations or if partnering is more feasible. 

Eligibility and clinical scope. ACCESS is focused on relatively stable, chronically ill beneficiaries and excludes those with more acute/severe conditions. Participants must accept responsibility for all qualifying conditions a beneficiary has within a track. 

Outcomes performance. The ACCESS Model places substantial emphasis on clinical performance and care coordination. Participants are paid in full only if enough patients hit outcomes targets. Early cohorts will likely skew toward organizations with mature clinical protocols, robust engagement models, and demonstrated outcomes. Applicants should be financially prepared to tolerate withholds, beneficiary switching, and follow-on period payment reductions after year one. 

Digital infrastructure and interoperability. ACCESS presumes API-driven data exchange, including consent capture, eligibility checks, claims/clinical data integration, and bidirectional information sharing with the patient’s broader care team. Applicants should ensure they have a FHIR API server and meet the requirements described in the CMS Health Tech Ecosystem pledge.

Go-to-market and referral strategy. Beneficiary alignment is voluntary and will be facilitated by CMS’s planned public directory with risk-adjusted outcomes. Access participants will benefit from strong referral relationships—especially with ACOs and primary care providers—both to enroll eligible beneficiaries and to minimize substitute services. A field strategy grounded in evidence, patient engagement, and interoperability with local providers is critical to success. 

Connect with Us 

Applications for the first ACCESS Model performance period are due April 1, 2026, with model launch in July 2026; applications submitted later would start January 1, 2027. Because ACCESS is a rolling, decade-long model, some organizations may choose to stage entry. 

ACCESS is the most explicit Innovation Center opportunity to date on outcomes-based, tech-enabled chronic care in Traditional Medicare. It offers digital health and advanced care organizations a direct line to FFS beneficiaries with payment tied to results, not activities. Success will favor teams that combine clinical excellence, consumer-grade engagement, and API-level interoperability, as well as manage program integrity, ACO overlap, and beneficiary churn. 

For questions or support assessing readiness, developing an application, or operationalizing the model, contact Amy BassanoRyan Howells, or Kate de Lisle

Blog

CMS Releases 2027 Advance Notice with Medicare Advantage and Part D Rates

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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released the Calendar Year (CY) 2027 Advance Notice and Payment Policies for the Medicare Advantage (Part C) Part D Prescription Drug Program on January 26, 2026. The Advance Notice begins CMS’s annual rate-setting cycle and describes proposed updates to Medicare Advantage (MA) growth rates, benchmark rebasing, risk adjustment, Star Ratings, and Part D payment parameters. CMS previously released a proposed rule in November 2025 that included policy changes to the Star Ratings system and enrollment policies for MA and Part D starting in contract year 2027. (Read the Health Management Associates (HMA) summary here.) 

Comments on the Advance Notice are due February 25, 2026, and CMS will publish the final CY 2027 rate announcement no later than April 6, 2026.  

This article provides an early look at the proposed methodological updates and draft capitation rates. Wakely, an HMA Company, will publish a detailed analysis of the Advance Notice in early February. 

Payment Impact on Medicare Advantage Organizations 

CMS estimates a national per capita MA growth rate of 5.10 percent from 2026 to 2027, with fee-for-service (FFS) non-end-stage renal disease (non-ESRD) growth of 5.10 percent and FFS dialysis end-stage renal disease (ESRD) growth of 6.17 percent. 

The 5.10 percent growth rate reflects projected increases in per capita FFS Medicare spending for beneficiaries who are aged/have disabilities and serves as the primary driver of 2027 benchmark updates, interacting with rebasing and risk adjustment changes to determine final capitation payments. The growth rate reflects updates to how CMS pays for skin substitutes in the 2026 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule. These updates resulted in significantly lower projected costs and materially reduced the growth rate. 

These preliminary estimates inform the development of MA benchmarks and may change in the final rate announcement. 

Table 1. Estimated Impact of Proposed Payment Changes on Medicare Advantage Plan Payments, CY 2027 

                                        Year-to-Year Percentage Change 
Impact  CY 2027 Advance Notice  
Effective Growth Rate4.97%
Rebasing/Re-pricingTBD
Change in Star Ratings-0.03%
MA Coding Pattern Adjustment0%
Risk Model Revision and Normalization-3.32%
Sources of Diagnoses-1.53%
Expected Average Change0.09%
SourceCenters for Medicare & Medicaid Services. 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D Advance Notice. January 26, 2026. Available at: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2027-medicare-advantage-part-d-advance-notice. 

Medicare Advantage Benchmarks, Rebasing, and Risk Adjustment 

The Advance Notice describes CMS’s approach and changes that will affect payment to plans, including: 

  • Excluding from the risk adjustment process diagnoses submitted from chart reviews with unlinked claim records. In the Fact Sheet, CMS estimates this change will reduce Part C payments by 1.53 percent. 
  • Rebasing county FFS rates for 2027 using 2020–2024 claims data, continuing CMS’s practice of updating benchmarks annually to reflect the most current FFS experience. The Advance Notice also reiterates the statutory framework for calculating benchmarks, including applicable and specified amounts, benchmark caps, and quality bonus payments. 
  • Updating the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) and Prescription Drug Hierarchical Condition Category (RxHCC) risk adjustment models and associated normalization factors for CY 2027 and continuing to apply the statutory MA coding pattern difference adjustment to account for systematic differences in diagnosis coding between MA and FFS. 

Quality Bonus Payments, Star Ratings, and Part D Updates 

CMS states that contracts with 4 or more Stars receive a 5 percentage-point quality bonus, while new and low-enrollment contracts receive a 3.5percentage-point bonus. The Advance Notice also includes updates related to Part C and Part D Star Ratings measures and methodological refinements. 

For Part D, CMS outlines proposed updates to the defined standard benefit parameters for CY 2027, as well as changes to Part D risk adjustment, normalization, premium stabilization, reinsurance, and risk-sharing, with additional policy context provided in the Contract Year 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D proposed rule. 

Connect with Us 

The CY 2027 Advance Notice provides early signals on benchmark growth, rebasing, and payment methodology changes that will shape MA and Part D payments in 2027. Stakeholders should begin evaluating the potential implications for bid development, benefit design, and financial performance as CMS moves toward finalizing rates in April. 

HMA supports Medicare Advantage and Part D stakeholders with payment impact modeling, scenario analysis, and strategic advisory services related to benchmark rebasing, risk adjustment, Star Ratings, and Part D payment policy to help organizations prepare for the CY 2027 rate announcement. 

For details about the finalized payment and policy rules, contact our featured experts,  Tim Courtney and Rachel Stewart

Blog

Preparing for Change: A Look at Proposed State Fiscal 2027 Budgets

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As of January 1, 2026, nine governors had released proposed budgets for state fiscal year (SFY) 2027. With the phase down of federal funding and substantial policy changes approved in the 2025 budget reconciliation act (P.L. 119-21, OBBBA), these proposals offer insights into how governors plan to manage mounting fiscal pressures, navigate new federal mandates, and position their programs for long-term sustainability. 

Today, Health Management Associates Information Services (HMAIS) published its first preliminary review of proposed SFY 2027 budget proposals. The initial installment includes budgets from Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Mississippi, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming, with the latter two proposals covering the fiscal 2026–28 biennium. 

HMAIS will release periodic updates as additional governors publish their budget proposals—the same rolling approach we used in 2025 (here and here). Because 15 states enacted 2025–27 biennial budgets last year, HMAIS also might review substantial mid-biennium health-related adjustments or supplemental funding. 

The remainder of this article provides a snapshot of several notable themes and emerging trends detailed in the full report. 

Implementation of New Federal Requirements 

State leaders are preparing budgets for SFY 2027 at a time of heightened fiscal stress and structural uncertainty. Entering 2026, governors are facing reductions in federal funding, particularly in Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) funding. In addition, they are preparing for new federal requirements that will begin to take effect later this year, including narrower flexibilities for financing and Medicaid community engagement policies and more frequent eligibility redeterminations. 

Against this backdrop, governors are using FY 2027 budget proposals to comply with OBBBA’s mandates and to stabilize their safety net programs and realign state operations around stricter fiscal realities. 

Medicaid Work Requirements. Virginia’s proposed budget includes funding to implement federal Medicaid community engagement requirements, including a recommendation to add nine new authorized positions in SFY 2027 and 12 more in fiscal year 2028 to meet workload demands. In addition, South Dakota’s governor proposed amending the state’s 2026 budget to secure funding to implement these requirements. 

Eligibility and Redetermination. Several governors are proposing investments to support heightened eligibility checks across Medicaid, SNAP, and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). For example, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis’s budget proposes $19.1 million to improve the state’s eligibility system for programs such as Medicaid, SNAP, and TANF. Utah’s proposed budget includes a recommended allocation of nearly $16.5 million to the Department of Workforce Services for “H.R. 1 Medicaid Eligibility Administration,” and nearly $10 million for the “H.R. 1 SNAP Administrative Services.” 

SNAP ChangesStates are backfilling lost federal funding and investing in error reduction and system modernization. New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s proposed budget, for example, includes $37 million to replace the decrease in federal funding for SNAP administration ($4 million of which will support 150 new full-time positions), as well as $8.9 million for systems improvements to reduce payment errors in SNAP. South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden’s proposed budget includes $5.5 million to offset a reduction in SNAP federal funding. 

Strategic Cost Containment 

Considering OBBBA implementation and the effects that it will have on their budgets, our first review of governors’ budget proposals signals that states are taking an aggressive posture toward limiting expenditure growth in 2026 and 2027. Initial proposals include targeted reductions, tighter utilization management, and restrictions on benefits. 

Since the 2025 legislative session, Colorado has taken multiple steps to prepare for declining federal revenue. For example, Governor Polis’s proposed budget accounts for multiple actions approved through an amended executive order that would reduce spending to brace for OBBBA’s impacts. Examples include: 

  • Reducing provider rates to 85 percent of the Medicare reimbursement rate 
  • Establishing limits on Community First Choice services 
  • Adjusting the home health nursing and therapy services payment methodology 
  • Introducing cost controls for Medicaid benefit categories that have shown disproportionate growth 
  • Implementing a $3,000 annual cap on adult Medicaid dental benefits and a $750 annual cap on dental benefits for individuals in the Cover All Coloradans program 
  • Changing the Cover All Coloradans behavioral health program from managed care to fee for service 
  • Reviewing provider fees in anticipation of possible State Directed Payment approval from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) 

Former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s budget—now inherited by Abilgail Spanberger following her inauguration January 17, 2026—includes multiple cost-containment proposals, such as: 

  • Anticipated adjustments to capitation rates after a review of Medicaid managed care organizations 
  • A $2,000 annual limit on adult dental services Medicaid coverage 
  • Elimination of both automatic rate increases for psychiatric residential treatment facilities and qualifying addiction and recovery treatment services providers and automatic biennial inflation increases for medical assistance providers 
  • Restrictions on emergency maternity services to Medicaid enrollees who are ineligible for Medicaid because of their citizenship status 
  • Standardized hourly limits across home and community-based services waivers 
  • Actions related to “ensuring appropriate utilization” of services, such as applied behavioral analysis and crisis services 

States are expected to include additional cost-containment tools throughout 2026 and beyond as OBBBA’s fiscal effects become clearer over the coming months and years. 

What to Watch 

The budget proposals indicate the resources that executive agencies need and preview governors’ policy agendas for the year ahead. Stakeholders should track program reductions and rate changes, eligibility system investments, and shifts in care models. 

In addition, some of the announced budget proposals consider federal awards to states under the Rural Health Transformation Program (RHTP). For example, the Alaska Department of Health budget request addresses the state’s RHTP implementation plans, and Wyoming’s budget proposal outlines RHTP priorities. Many states are preparing RFP processes to operationalize their RHTP strategies and make progress on the goals of their initiatives. 

Connect with Us 

As federal funding uncertainties continue, states and other stakeholders will need to adapt their delivery systems, administrative structures, and financing models throughout OBBBA’s multiyear rollout. HMA offers expertise, analytics, and strategic advisory services needed to navigate this evolving landscape. For details contact Andrea Maresca and Kathleen Nolan

The full state of the states and governor budget report is available to HMAIS subscribers. In addition, HMAIS maintains a Rural Health Transformation Program (RHTP) Tracker that incorporates details of each initiative and the first year award.  

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Outlook 2026: ACA Marketplace Trends–A Conversation with Michael Cohen and Zach Sherman

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As the 2026 Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace open enrollment period nears its close—and with enhanced subsidies expiring, rates shifting, and consumer behavior evolving—questions about enrollment stability, affordability, and operational readiness have rapidly moved to the forefront. Andrea Maresca, Senior Principal, at Health Management Associates, caught up with Zach Sherman, Managing Director for Coverage Policy and Program Design at HMA, and Michael Cohen, PhD, who leads much of the federal policy analysis advanced by Wakely, an HMA company, to unpack what they’re seeing so far.

Q: This year’s open enrollment period has been unusually complex. At the federal level, what stands out most so far? 

Michael: The headline is that new enrollment is down sharply, while returning consumers have held steadier than expected. That reflects the reality that the enhanced subsidies are gone, premiums have risen, and consumers are facing higher net costs across nearly every market. 

But nuance matters: The real question now is how many of these plan selections will effectuate—meaning consumers pay their first month premium, and how many will stay enrolled the entire year? Average effectuated enrollment throughout the year is what truly determines 2026 risk mix and market stability. 

Q: Enrollment appears to vary considerably from state to state. What are you hearing from state partners? 

Zach: It’s a tale of two markets. StateBased Exchanges (SBEs) are generally seeing less attrition and, in some cases, even modest increases in plan selections. The reason is simple: Many states are doing a lot of heavy lifting to offset the loss of federal support. 

For example, SBEs perform earlier and have more customized outreach. We’ve also seen some states step in and offer state-funded subsidies, which are cushioning the affordability loss in places like New Mexico, Maryland, and California. 

While still early, the data suggest that states with heavy investment in awareness and enrollment assistance, operational support, and affordability are weathering the transition better because they have more tools to stabilize the consumer experience. 

Q: There’s been a lot of speculation about how consumers are responding to the end of enhanced subsidies. What are the early signs? 

Michael: Consumers appear to be buying leaner benefits or different metal tiers to manage premium increases. 

Another underrecognized but incredibly important dynamic is that autoreenrolled consumers may not effectuate coverage once they see the final outofpocket premium. That dynamic won’t be fully understood until March, April, and even May. 

Q: Idaho is a particularly interesting early case study. What are you learning from the first state to complete enrollment? 

Zach: Your Health Idaho’s open enrollment finished on December 15, and while they saw a slight increase in plan selections, state officials are not celebrating as they expect a large wave of cancellations—up to 20,000—due to the expiring subsidies. 

That’s the clearest early indication that affordability is the defining issue of 2026. States are preparing for higher-than-usual enrollment attrition in quarters one and two (Q1 and Q2), and they’re thinking hard about customer service capacity as consumers navigate changing net premiums, increased deductibles and out-of-pocket costs, and nonpayment grace periods. 

Q: Are there policy levers states can still pull to mitigate affordability challenges going forward? 

Zach: We’re seeing states explore options for mitigating affordability gaps and enrollment losses, including through state subsidy programs and increased investment in existing reinsurance programs. SBEs are also leaning on their core competencies—tailored and specific education campaigns and enrollment and plan comparison tools—to help their customers cut through the noise and navigate to the best option within their budget.  

These aren’t perfect or quick fixes and most states don’t have the resources necessary to backstop the expiring subsidies, but state leaders increasingly view doing something as necessary to stabilize their markets. 

Q: What should health plans, exchanges, and policymakers watch most closely over the next three months? 

Michael: Effectuation, effectuation, effectuation. The composition of the effectuated population will define 2026 risk. 

Zach: Agree. In addition, future regulatory action on affordability, eligibility and enrollment processes, and program integrity. The federal government is expected to issue its annual payment notice, the proposed 2027 Notice of Benefits and Payment Parameters, in the near future. 

You can find more insights on the initial enrollment patterns to date in this Health Management Associates-Wakely paper, Individual ACA Open Enrollment Insights So Far and register for the 2027 ACA Considerations: Proposed NBPP and Other Key Changes and Trends.  

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Outlook 2026: Rural Health Transformation Program

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As we kick off the new year, Health Management Associates (HMA) is launching a new series of brief, insightful interviews with our policy experts on issues that will define 2026—what’s changing, why it matters, and how federal, state, and industry decisions will shape what happens next. Building on our earlier analysis of the Rural Health Transformation Program ((RHTP), here and here), this week, we start with a pointed look at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’s (CMS) first year of RHTP awards. 

Rural Health, Ready or Not: CMS Wants Results in 2026

An interview with Kathleen Nolan, Senior Advisor, HMA, and Sara Singleton, Principal, Leavitt Partners, an HMA Company. 

Q: What do the new Rural Health Transformation Program awards tell us about US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and CMS priorities heading into 2026? 

Kathleen Nolan: One of the clearest signals is that CMS expects visible progress in 2026. This is not a program that gives states months of planning runway. The application made it clear that CMS wants states to start doing the activities they proposed right away—not just planning or propping up existing systems. CMS wants to see meaningful movement on implementation in 2026, especially in the areas of workforce, infrastructure, technology modernization, and care delivery redesign. 

Sara Singleton: Exactly, and CMS is using this investment to reinforce some of the administration’s broader policy goals. Many state proposals leaned heavily into chronic disease prevention, chronic care management, and expanding supports that promote healthier lifestyles. That alignment isn’t accidental. The Administration is looking for real traction on these priorities, and RHTP gives states both the resources and the accountability framework to make progress. So, the message from CMS is clear: Move quickly, implement strategically, and show early gains in the areas that matter for long-term population health. 

Q: Was anything in the awards themselves surprising? 

Singleton: There was a lot of speculation about how wide the spread in funding levels might be, particularly for states’ discretionary initiatives. But the distribution was relatively tight; 32 states fell in the “average” range of $190‒$230 million, with only four states above $230 million and 13 below $190 million. That suggests CMS isn’t signaling dramatic differences in expected performance or ambition. 

Nolan: It reinforces that CMS is looking for consistent, measurable progress from every state. States that struggle to implement their plans could see less funding in about years. 

Q: What should states keep top of mind heading into year one? 

Nolan: Accountability. CMS has made it clear they will adjust budgets in later years if states don’t meet expectations on reporting and evaluation. That also means states need to know where the dollars are going and what they are getting for the investment. Year one performance really matters. 

Singleton: And it’s not just CMS. Congress and the Office of Inspector General for HHS will also be watching how states use these funds. 

Q: What rural health policy developments are you watching in early 2026? 

Nolan: Decisions about the leadership for these initiatives and state legislatures. Federal investment can only go so far. States will need strong leaders and supportive policies to accelerate and sustain RHTP efforts in year one. What legislatures choose to prioritize will shape the impact of RHTP far beyond year one. 

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Tracking Medicaid’s Growth: FFY 2025 Spending and T-MSIS Data Provide Insights on Managed Care Spending

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This week, our In Focus section highlights findings from a Health Management Associates Information Services (HMAIS) analysis of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) preliminary CMS-64 Medicaid expenditure report for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2025. The data show total medical services expenditures reached $971.4 billion across all states and territories, up 6.9 percent from FFY 2024. 

This CMS-64 spending detail provides important context as states prepare for their upcoming legislative sessions and begin implementing changes required under the 2025 budget reconciliation act (P.L. 119-21, OBBBA). Early fiscal and operational pressures will stem from changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and preparations for community engagement requirements for Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion enrollees. In subsequent years, pressures will intensify because of major changes to provider tax financing and new federal limits on state directed payments in 2027 and early 2028. 

In this article, we provide a deeper review of Medicaid spending, including the federal-state financing split. As Medicaid agencies prepare for upcoming spring sessions and anticipate potential program changes under OBBBA, it is notable that nearly two-thirds of Medicaid directors report an at least fifty percent likelihood of a Medicaid budget shortfall in FFY 2026. 

Growth and Drivers in Medicaid Managed Care Spending 

The HMAIS analysis looks at CMS-64 preliminary estimates of Medicaid spending by state for FFY 2025. CMS tracks state expenditures through the automated Medicaid Budget and Expenditure System/State Children’s Health Insurance Budget and Expenditure System (MBES/CBES). 

While enrollment decreased for most states following the COVID-19 public health emergency unwinding, states saw an uptick in expenditures due to increased state directed payments, greater utilization and sicker populations, higher drug costs, increased provider rates, and greater use of long-term services and supports and behavioral health. 

Key findings from HMAIS’ analysis (see Table 1), include: 

  • Total Medicaid managed care spending (federal and state share combined) reached $550.5 billion in FFY 2025, up from $517.5 billion in FFY 2024. 
  • This amount represents a 6.4 percent year-over-year increase from FFY 2024 to FFY 2025. 
  • Managed care accounted for 56.7 percent of total Medicaid spending in FFY 2025, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous year. 
  • The $33 billion increase from FFY 2024 to FFY 2025 exceeds the $9.4 billion increase seen the year prior, reflecting renewed growth following the unwinding transition period. 

These figures include spending on comprehensive risk-based managed care organizations (MCOs), prepaid inpatient health plans (PIHPs), and prepaid ambulatory health plans (PAHPs). PIHPs and PAHPs refer to prepaid health plans that provide a subset of services, such as dental or behavioral health care. This total is exclusive of fee-based programs such as primary care case management models. 

Table 1. Medicaid MCO Expenditures as a Percentage of Total Medicaid Expenditures, FFY 2020–2025 (in millions) 

Annual Medicaid managed care expenditures have grown consistently with total Medicaid expenditures. After slower growth in FFY 2024—which aligned with the post-COVID-19 policy unwinding period when many states completed eligibility redeterminations—FFY 2025 again experienced an uptick in managed care growth (see Figure 1). 

Figure 1. Total and MCO Medicaid Expenditures, FFY 2020–2025 ($M)

Federal versus State Share Spending 

The preliminary FFY 2025 expenditure data provides a baseline before OBBBA’s changes are scheduled for implementation and as states continue to face Medicaid funding challenges. In FFY 2025, federal funding accounted for 64.2 percent of FFY 2025 spending, and non-federal matching funds accounted for 35.8 percent (see Table 2). Particularly later in 2027, 2028, and subsequent years, Medicaid expansion states stand to see disproportionally larger increases in their share of spending. 

Table 2. Federal versus State Share of Medicaid Expenditures, FFY 2020–2025 (in millions)

T-MSIS Data Adds Detail to CMS-64 MCO Spending 

To complement CMS-64 macro-spending trends, HMA developed a methodology allowing us to use Transformed Medicaid Statistical Information System (T-MSIS) data to approximate managed care spending by service category. Although T-MSIS enables more granular views (e.g., professional services, inpatient/outpatient hospital services, skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), HCBS, clinics, pharmaceuticals), the most recent dataset typically lags one to two years behind CMS-64 totals. 

HMA’s analysis of the T-MSIS data shows that while managed care remains the dominant delivery system model for Medicaid, spending by provider types helps contextualize the CMS-64 report. Notably, the CMS-64 reports FFY25 data and our report below on T-MSIS disaggregation uses 2023 data. Although the T-MSIS and CMS-64 data are for different years, it still highlights the main components of the largest spending component of the CMS-64 with more recent data. 

The 2023 T-MSIS analysis shows the following: 

  • Professional fees are the lead spending category, with nearly 30 percent of spending directed toward payments to physicians and other practitioners (e.g., physician assistants, nurse practitioners). Given that T-MSIS data are built around billing codes, services that traditionally may be considered part of a bundled rate (i.e., a large portion of physician services delivered in hospitals and clinics) are essentially unbundled and considered professional fees. 
  • Hospital spending (inpatient plus outpatient), SNF costs, and professional fees together account for close to 75 percent of spending in CY 2023. 

Figure 2. T-MSIS Medicaid Spending by Service Category 2023 (MCO disaggregated plus FFS)

What to Watch 

Because Medicaid is such a big part of state government spending, outlays for Medicaid will always be a focus and challenge for states. Upcoming state legislative sessions and OBBBA driven changes will begin in 2026 with SNAP pressures and major operational preparations for community engagement requirements for expansion states. Preparations for new limits on provider taxes and state directed payments will likely begin immediately, but the true impacts will occur in 2027 and early 2028. States will need to tailor their programs under funding constraints. 

Connect with Us 

HMAIS, a subscription-based tool that Health Management Associates offers, provides state-by-state analysis of the CMS-64 data, Medicaid managed care enrollment trends, and state budget reporting. For more information about an HMAIS subscription, contact Andrea Maresca and Alona Nenko. For details on T-MSIS data, contact Matt Powers and Shreyas Ramani

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Executive Branch Actions Target Drug Affordability in New Pricing Models

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The federal drug pricing landscape continues to undergo significant transformation as executive branch agencies advance an ambitious suite of regulatory and model testing initiatives intended to lower the costs associated with the Medicare and Medicaid programs. In response to ongoing concerns about rising out-of-pocket costs, increasing pressure to align US prices with those paid internationally, and the continued implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), federal agencies are reshaping how prescription drugs are priced, reimbursed, and negotiated in federally financed programs. 

The current policy environment reflects a growing emphasis on benchmarking drug prices to those in peer nations, referred to as “most favored nation” (MFN) benchmarks, and accelerating actions that require or encourage manufacturers to offer lower net prices. Health Management Associates (HMA), is tracking these developments in the public payer space, replicating Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) payment methodologies, and modeling alternative policies to assist life science companies, payers, and other stakeholders. 

In this article, we review the administration’s recent efforts to reduce Medicare and Medicaid spending on drugs and biologics, including confidential manufacturer negotiations and three new models that together could reshape pricing dynamics across federal programs. 

Executive Branch Negotiations Seek to Drive Access to MFN Discounts 

In 2025, the administration issued an Executive Order directing federal agencies to pursue strategies to establish MFN pricing, linking US prices for certain drugs to the lowest (or second lowest) adjusted net prices among a targeted set of peer countries. Following the order, federal officials sent letters to 17 major pharmaceutical and biotechnology manufacturers, urging them to negotiate agreements that would voluntarily align prices with MFN-based benchmarks. 

To date, 14 manufacturers have signed agreements, though full details remain confidential. These agreements are understood to accomplish the following: 

  • Provide state Medicaid programs with access to MFNbased discounts 
  • Require that new drugs be launched in the United States at MFNaligned prices 
  • Offer certain drugs at discounted directtoconsumer prices through a forthcoming “TrumpRx” program, expected to launch later this year 

Reports suggest that manufacturers entering these MFN-related arrangements may receive exemptions from several federal actions, including the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (Innovation Center) demonstration models described below and certain tariff-related policies. 

MFNLinked Models Designed to Lower Drug Costs Across Medicare and Medicaid 

Along with the negotiation efforts, the CMS Innovation Center has proposed three models that would test MFNbased pricing through structured rebate mechanisms. Each model targets different segments of the market while testing how international benchmarks could be integrated into federal drug payment policy. 

New Models Test Alternatives to Inflation Rebates 

Announced in December 2025, the Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing (GLOBE) Model and the Guarding US Medicare Against Rising Drug Costs (GUARD) Model are designed to test alternative approaches to the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) inflation penalty policies. CMS plans to test the models’ potential for market driven price reductions if manufacturers choose to lower list prices instead of paying MFN-based rebates. 

Key features of the GLOBE Model are as follows: 

  • Applies to 25 percent of Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries using certain Part B drugs 
  • Beginning in October 2026, becomes mandatory for select drugs and targets highspending, physicianadministered Part B categories, excluding products already subject to IRA negotiations, generics, biosimilars, and certain lowspend products 
  • No changes to physician and hospital reimbursement, although beneficiaries expected to see reduced cost sharing 

The GUARD Model will similarly test whether applying MFN-based rebates to Medicare Part D drugs will lower Medicare costs. Key aspects of this model include: 

  • Fiveyear model that would start January 1, 2027 
  • Target therapeutic categories with more than $69 million in annual Part D spending 
  • No impact on plan bids and beneficiary cost sharing 

These models rely on pricing data from 19 countries. Manufacturers that voluntarily submit net price information would trigger quarterly benchmark updates; otherwise, CMS will use a fixed list price based benchmark for the entire pilot period. 

CMS is seeking comments on whether additional categories, for example cell and gene therapies, should be excluded from GLOBE. GUARD is also open for comment through February 23, 2026. 

GENErating cost Reductions fOr US Medicaid (GENEROUS) Model 

The GENEROUS model, expected to begin in 2026, creates a voluntary pathway for state Medicaid programs and manufacturers to enter supplemental rebate agreements tied to MFNaligned prices. MFN pricing under this model is based on the second lowest net price in G7 countries plus Denmark and Switzerland. GENEROUS is also expected to align with pricing commitments negotiated through the administration’s manufacturer agreements. 

Key Considerations and Potential Impacts 

The combined effect of federal negotiations and Innovation Center models could be substantial, though outcomes will depend on manufacturer participation, benchmark stability, and operational feasibility. Key considerations include: 

  • State Medicaid savings, especially the extent to which MFN‑linked rebates exceed existing supplemental rebates 
  • Reduced Medicare beneficiary cost sharing for Part B included in GLOBE 
  • Shifts in manufacturer pricing strategies, including potential changes to US launch prices 
  • Interactions with the IRA, particularly Part D redesign and Part B inflation penalties 

Connect with Us 

HMA experts continue to track the federal drug pricing landscape closely as comments, operational details, and implementation timelines evolve across these initiatives. Our team replicates CMS payment methodologies and models alternative policies using the most current Medicare FFS and Medicare Advantage (100%) claims data. 

For more information and questions about the policies described in this article, please contact our experts below.

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CMS Announces Rural Health Transformation Program Awardees

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On December 29, 2025, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced the state awards for the Rural Health Transformation Program (RHTP), a $50 billion federal initiative intended to stabilize rural health systems and support transformation. CMS stated that $10 billion will be available each year from 2026 to 2030, and that first-year (2026) state awards average $200 million, with totals ranging from $147 million to $281 million. 

This announcement marks a pivot from planning to execution. In the coming months, states will move rapidly to finalize governance structures, confirm partners, and translate proposed initiatives into operational workplans and measurable outcomes. 

Although CMS announced the overall awards for the first budget year, some states have signaled they continue to work with CMS on initiative-specific budgets and planning. In this article, Health Management Associates (HMA) reviews key themes and early trends based on the application initiatives and what is known about the budgets. 

What the Awards Suggest About State Priorities 

Although each state’s awarded approach reflects local realities, early patterns across awardees’ project abstracts suggest several recurring priorities that may shape implementation activity in 2026. 

1) Building the Data, Analytics, and Interoperability Backbone
A number of awardees prioritized shared infrastructure for interoperability, analytics, performance monitoring, and operational backbone capabilities. Examples include: 

  • Arizona described plans to secure vendors to build secure data pipelines, dashboards, and fiscal tracking tools that meet federal audit standards to support rural transformation. 
  • New Mexico proposed a Rural Health Data Hub to build a statewide health analytics platform that integrates siloed data sources and expands access to timely, actionable information for providers. 
  • Alaska described technology-focused investments to strengthen cybersecurity, facilitate data sharing and interoperability, and expand digital tools (including consumer-facing tools and remote modalities). 

2) Strengthening Maternal Health and Perinatal Care
Many awardees emphasized stabilizing rural maternity access and strengthening perinatal supports through strategies, such as: 

  • Alabama proposed a Maternal and Fetal Health initiative featuring digital obstetric regionalization and telerobotic ultrasound to extend specialty access in rural settings. 
  • Kentucky prioritized maternal and infant health by addressing maternity care deserts, including telehealth-enabled community-based maternal/infant support teams and expanded perinatal care access. 
  • Ohio proposed legislative reforms to allow low-risk birthing centers in rural hospitals as part of its broader strategy to address maternity care deserts and improve rural access to care. 

Why it matters: Rural maternity deserts and workforce constraints remain critical drivers of avoidable complications and adverse outcomes. Approaches piloted in rural settings may inform broader statewide maternity care strategies. 

3) Modernizing Emergency Medical Services and Mobile Care
Several awardees included investments intended to strengthen emergency response and build more reliable rural stabilization capacity. 

  • Alabama proposed statewide emergency medical services (EMS) initiatives, including trauma and stroke routing/diversion improvements and an EMS treat-in-place model for low-acuity patients. 
  • Wyoming emphasized access to “the basics,” including improvements in the ability of hospitals to effectively treat emergencies and ambulance response, alongside incentives for small ambulance services to consolidate around more sustainable regional funding bases. 

Why it matters: EMS and mobile response models can function as connective tissue in rural systems with limited traditional access points. 

Why it matters: Data-sharing infrastructure can enable multi-provider coordination, performance tracking, and the operational foundations needed for sustainable transformation. 

4) Integrating Behavioral Health and Community-Based Supports
Awards also reflected ongoing efforts to expand behavioral health access and improve integration with physical health and community supports. For example: 

  • Alabama proposed to improve behavioral health access by converting Community Mental Health Centers into Certified Community Behavioral Health Clinics (CCBHCs). 
  • Arizona proposed to invest in behavioral health and substance use disorder treatment expansion as part of its Priority Health Initiatives portfolio. 
  • Wyoming included statewide telepsychiatry and crisis intervention services as part of its health outcomes priorities. 

Why it matters: Behavioral health capacity constraints are frequently more acute in rural areas, and integration strategies often require both reliable workforce and technology supports. 

What to Watch Next 

With awards announced, attention will quickly turn to implementation. Stakeholders should have processes to track the following: 

  • State governance decisions (including lead agencies, subawards, and regional structures) and funding opportunities 
  • State partner selection processes (through requests for proposals, vendor onboarding, or other contracting pathways) 
  • Performance measurement and reporting expectations (including metrics and evaluation approaches) 
  • Sequencing of the initiatives and where near-term operational activity is most likely to concentrate 

CMS also signaled near-term oversight and engagement mechanisms, state-assigned CMS project officers, kickoff meetings, ongoing technical assistance, and regular progress updates, along with a planned annual CMS Rural Health Summit. 

Tracking State RHTP Implementation 

The HMAIS team developed a resource to capture available information about state RHTP activities, applications, and initiatives and provide a road map for identifying state-specific proposals, requested funding, governance structures, and other key aspects of state RHTP initiatives. 

Following CMS’s award announcement, HMAIS is updating this Rural Health Transformation Program (RHTP) Tracker to incorporate award-specific details as they become publicly available. The resource includes information about FY26 awards by state and initiatives, links to CMS materials and state-posted implementation documentation, and a consolidated view of emerging themes and trends as implementation accelerates in 2026. 

Looking Ahead 

The award announcement is the beginning of implementation. As states operationalize initiatives in early 2026, organizations that align early to awarded priorities and implementation timelines will be best positioned to support rural-first efforts that deliver measurable and lasting results. 

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