Insights

On January 28, 2026, the Centers for Medicaid & Medicare Services (CMS) released its second national snapshot of 2026 Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace Open Enrollment (OE) activity. While this update is not a final accounting of enrollment activity, it is likely to be the last OE federal data release for some time and offers an early look at how enrollment trends are shifting in the wake of expired enhanced premium tax credits and new eligibility standards under the 2025 budget reconciliation act (P.L. 119-21, OBBBA). 

In this article, Health Management Associates (HMA) and Wakely, an HMA company, highlight findings from their analysis of the 2026 OE activity and compare this activity with 2025 data. This analysis builds on the findings in their January 2026 analysis (here) and will provide important context for the 2027 plan year. 

Overall Enrollment Trends 

CMS reports that 2026 plan selections decreased by 5 percent from 2025, with enrollment declining across both new and returning consumers. New sign-ups dropped by 14 percent and renewals fell by 3 percent (Table 1). State-based Marketplace (SBM) enrollment dipped modestly, though many SBMs were still enrolling consumers in late January. 

Table 1. Comparison of 2026 and 2025 Open Enrollment 

	2026	2025	Net Change
Total	22,973,219	24,166,491	(1,193,272)
New Consumers	3,382,189	3,938,907	(556,718)
Returning Consumers	19,591,030	20,227,584	(636,554)

Variation Across State-Based and Federally Facilitated Marketplaces 

Enrollment patterns varied substantially across states. 

SBMs: 

• New Mexico saw the largest year-over-year increase (14%), attributed to state-funded subsidies designed to offset the loss of enhanced premium tax credits (ePTCs). 
• Georgia experienced a 14 percent decline, the steepest drop among SBMs. 

Federally Facilitated Marketplace (FFM) States: 

• Overall, FFM enrollment fell 5 percent. 
• Texas led FFM states with a 5 percent increase in plan selections. 
• Ohio and North Carolina experienced substantial enrollment declines, 20 percent and 22 percent respectively. 

What This Tells Us—and What It Doesn’t Tell Us Yet 

FFM data are as of January 15, 2026, and measure plan selections after the OE period ended. Within the FFM, state-by-state enrollment activity varied significantly. Some of this variation is surprising and not readily explainable from the available data and will be a focus of future HMA and Wakely analyses. 

The data include neither effectuated enrollment nor paid enrollment—data which will be key to fully understanding 2026 enrollment trends and the impact of changing federal policies, including the ePTC expiration and changing eligibility standards introduced in 2026 as the result of OBBBA. 

Early SBM data suggest significantly higher cancellation and disenrollment rates than in previous years. 

SBMs are sharing that they expect substantial affordability-driven voluntary and nonpayment terminations over the first half of 2026. 

Monitoring paid enrollments, attrition, and grace period dynamics, including retro-terminations, will be key to understanding market dynamics and 2027 pricing. 

Connect with Us 

HMA and Wakley experts have considerable experience working with states, insurers, and federal policymakers with jurisdiction over the Marketplace. We work with these entities to inform, analyze, and shape federal policies and conduct impact analyses on pricing, enrollment, administration, and operations. HMA also provides strategic and project management support for the implementation of finalized policies. 

Please contact Michael Cohen, Taylor Gehrke, or Zachary Sherman with questions, follow-up, or if you would like expert assistance exploring any of the issues discussed in this post.

As the 2026 Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace open enrollment period nears its close—and with enhanced subsidies expiring, rates shifting, and consumer behavior evolving—questions about enrollment stability, affordability, and operational readiness have rapidly moved to the forefront. Andrea Maresca, Senior Principal, at Health Management Associates, caught up with Zach Sherman, Managing Director for Coverage Policy and Program Design at HMA, and Michael Cohen, PhD, who leads much of the federal policy analysis advanced by Wakely, an HMA company, to unpack what they’re seeing so far.

Q: This year’s open enrollment period has been unusually complex. At the federal level, what stands out most so far? 

Michael: The headline is that new enrollment is down sharply, while returning consumers have held steadier than expected. That reflects the reality that the enhanced subsidies are gone, premiums have risen, and consumers are facing higher net costs across nearly every market. 

But nuance matters: The real question now is how many of these plan selections will effectuate—meaning consumers pay their first month premium, and how many will stay enrolled the entire year? Average effectuated enrollment throughout the year is what truly determines 2026 risk mix and market stability. 

Q: Enrollment appears to vary considerably from state to state. What are you hearing from state partners? 

Zach: It’s a tale of two markets. StateBased Exchanges (SBEs) are generally seeing less attrition and, in some cases, even modest increases in plan selections. The reason is simple: Many states are doing a lot of heavy lifting to offset the loss of federal support. 

For example, SBEs perform earlier and have more customized outreach. We’ve also seen some states step in and offer state-funded subsidies, which are cushioning the affordability loss in places like New Mexico, Maryland, and California. 

While still early, the data suggest that states with heavy investment in awareness and enrollment assistance, operational support, and affordability are weathering the transition better because they have more tools to stabilize the consumer experience. 

Q: There’s been a lot of speculation about how consumers are responding to the end of enhanced subsidies. What are the early signs? 

Michael: Consumers appear to be buying leaner benefits or different metal tiers to manage premium increases. 

Another underrecognized but incredibly important dynamic is that autoreenrolled consumers may not effectuate coverage once they see the final outofpocket premium. That dynamic won’t be fully understood until March, April, and even May. 

Q: Idaho is a particularly interesting early case study. What are you learning from the first state to complete enrollment? 

Zach: Your Health Idaho’s open enrollment finished on December 15, and while they saw a slight increase in plan selections, state officials are not celebrating as they expect a large wave of cancellations—up to 20,000—due to the expiring subsidies. 

That’s the clearest early indication that affordability is the defining issue of 2026. States are preparing for higher-than-usual enrollment attrition in quarters one and two (Q1 and Q2), and they’re thinking hard about customer service capacity as consumers navigate changing net premiums, increased deductibles and out-of-pocket costs, and nonpayment grace periods. 

Q: Are there policy levers states can still pull to mitigate affordability challenges going forward? 

Zach: We’re seeing states explore options for mitigating affordability gaps and enrollment losses, including through state subsidy programs and increased investment in existing reinsurance programs. SBEs are also leaning on their core competencies—tailored and specific education campaigns and enrollment and plan comparison tools—to help their customers cut through the noise and navigate to the best option within their budget.  

These aren’t perfect or quick fixes and most states don’t have the resources necessary to backstop the expiring subsidies, but state leaders increasingly view doing something as necessary to stabilize their markets. 

Q: What should health plans, exchanges, and policymakers watch most closely over the next three months? 

Michael: Effectuation, effectuation, effectuation. The composition of the effectuated population will define 2026 risk. 

Zach: Agree. In addition, future regulatory action on affordability, eligibility and enrollment processes, and program integrity. The federal government is expected to issue its annual payment notice, the proposed 2027 Notice of Benefits and Payment Parameters, in the near future. 

You can find more insights on the initial enrollment patterns to date in this Health Management Associates-Wakely paper, Individual ACA Open Enrollment Insights So Far and register for the 2027 ACA Considerations: Proposed NBPP and Other Key Changes and Trends.  

As 2025 draws to a close, Congress finds itself at a crossroads on several critical health policy issues, with the fate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies front and center. The year has been marked by intense negotiations and a flurry of proposals, many of which remain unresolved as lawmakers look ahead to a pivotal January 30 deadline for appropriations spending bills. In this article, policy experts from Health Management Associates (HMA)—including Leavitt Partners, an HMA company—provide a comprehensive wrap-up of Congress’ work on ACA subsidies, executive agency actions, and what stakeholders should anticipate in early 2026. 

ACA Subsidies: A Year of Uncertainty and Political Maneuvering 

The expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies at the end of 2025 has been a focal point for congressional debate. Despite numerous bipartisan groups and a multitude of proposals circulating, consensus has proven elusive. The Senate voted on an ACA-related measure December 11, 2025, but neither the Democrats’ proposal for a three-year extension nor the Republican alternative to replace subsidies with health savings accounts advanced and revise certain other Medicaid policies. 

The situation in the House has been equally complex. House GOP leaders unveiled a healthcare package designed to lower costs, expand association health plans, and increase transparency for pharmacy benefit managers. The package would not extend the expiring enhanced ACA subsidies, and even if the House bill passes, the Senate is unlikely to consider it. In addition, on December 17, House Democrats secured enough support to force a vote on a bill that would provide a three-year extension of enhanced subsidies, although House rules preclude scheduling a vote on the bill until January.  

The prevailing sentiment among policy experts is that no substantial action will be taken before year’s end. 

The White House briefly floated a two-year extension of the enhanced subsidies, but walked back the proposal, signaling fluidity in the policy discussions within the administration and among congressional Republicans. The absence of consensus on both policy and political ramifications has left the ACA subsidy issue in limbo. 

Looking Ahead: January’s Appropriations Deadline and ACA Options 

December 15, 2025, marked the last day for consumers to enroll in ACA coverage policies that take effect January 1, 2026, meaning that for many health insurance purchasers, choices for 2026 are already set. Policymakers are now focused on another deadline for potential ACA subsidy action—January 30, 2026, when temporary funding for the current federal fiscal year expires. It is possible that a solution could be attached to the spending package, potentially affecting 2026 premiums, although operational challenges abound. The most feasible option at this stage would be a premium rebate, which would avoid reopening enrollment but require complex rate adjustments. Any substantive changes to the subsidy structure would demand significant actuarial analysis and could disrupt both health plans and state activities. 

Congressional Dynamics: Appropriations, Extenders, and Policy Riders 

The appropriations process is center stage as Congress approaches the January 30, 2026, deadline. Lawmakers are seeking to continue passing “minibus” packages—small groups of appropriations bills—to avoid another government shutdown. Most Medicare and Medicaid policy priorities, including must-pass extenders like telehealth flexibilities and the hospital at home program, are dependent on appropriations vehicles to advance. If Congress resorts to a stopgap continuing resolution, only the most essential extenders are likely to be included, with broader policy riders at risk of being sidelined. 

Policy Outlook 

Pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) reform stands out as a top bipartisan priority, with both House and Senate members eager to advance transparency and de-linking measures. Other lingering issues from the December 2024 healthcare package include Medicaid spread pricing prohibitions, streamlined enrollment for out-of-state providers, and targeted benefits for military service members. In Medicare, multi-cancer early detection screening and digital health policies may resurface, though larger reforms like Medicare physician fee schedule changes are likely to be deferred until later in 2026. 

Agency Developments: CMS Innovation and Regulatory Changes 

Beyond Congress, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has been active, rolling out new models and rules that will shape the landscape in 2026 and beyond. Highlights include the 2027 Medicare Advantage Policy and Technical Changes Proposed Rule. Although it introduces no major policy shifts, the proposed rule addresses quality measurement, special needs plans, the Health Equity Index, and administrative burden reduction. It also codifies changes from the Inflation Reduction Act, such as cost-sharing and out-of-pocket limit reforms. The new ACCESS model (Advancing Chronic Care with Effective, Scalable Solutions) is intended to incentivize tech-enabled care for chronic conditions, with the model beginning July 2026. 

CMS also released updates to the outpatient, home health, and durable medical equipment rules, with a continued focus on site neutrality (aligning payments across settings) and removing barriers to beneficiary choice. The agency is placing ongoing emphasis on data collection, price transparency, and updated payment methodologies to reflect modern practice and technology. The GENEROUS (GENErating cost Reductions fOr U.S. Medicaid) Model introduces most favored nation pricing for Medicaid, while additional mandatory Medicare drug pricing models are under review. Rural health transformation remains a CMS priority, with expectations for further announcements and awards before the end of the year. 

We expect 2026 to be another busy year for CMS with more new models being announced, continued policy refinements in the fee-for-service payment systems, and changes in Medicare Advantage based on feedback from the requests for information. 

Connect with HMA Policy Experts 

As the new year approaches, uncertainty remains the defining feature of federal health policy. The fate of ACA subsidies, the appropriations process, and a host of other reforms will hinge on negotiations in the coming weeks. For stakeholders navigating these complex dynamics, HMA’s team of policy experts stands ready to provide guidance, analysis, and support.