Insights

This week, our In Focus section addresses the significant change in national and state-specific Medicaid enrollment as a result of the Medicaid unwinding process. First, we highlight notable enrollment changes in the post-unwinding months. Next, we provide an update on second quarter (Q2) 2024 monthly capitated, risk-based Medicaid managed care enrollment. The experiences of the unwinding and the impact and current enrollment landscape are directly affecting strategic and programmatic decisions across all states, Medicaid managed care plans, and their partners and stakeholders. 

Background 

As explained in previous In Focus articles (article #1, article #2 and article #3), federal COVID-19 relief laws allowed states to receive higher federal funding for Medicaid as long as they did not terminate Medicaid coverage for anyone enrolled in Medicaid during the public health emergency. One result of the continuous coverage policy was sustained growth in Medicaid enrollment. More than 21 million additional individuals were continuously enrolled in Medicaid for up to three years between February 2020 and March 2023. In December 2022, Congress ended the Medicaid continuous coverage policy after March 31, 2023. States were allowed to begin processing redeterminations as early as February 2023 and start disenrolling ineligible individuals as early as April 2023. 

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) offered states a series of flexibilities intended to facilitate the unwinding process, which reduced some administrative burden and improved continuity of coverage for Medicaid enrollees. Most states adopted at least one of the flexibilities, with many using multiple options. Nonetheless, variations in timing and implementation of the flexibilities have affected their effectiveness. 

California, for example, received federal approval for flexibilities in its automatic redetermination process early on but implemented enhanced automation months into its unwinding process. This increased automation cut the number of disenrollments in half. Another key challenge during the unwinding was contacting enrollees about the redetermination process, and several of the federal flexibilities involved increased coordination with Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs). 

Key Takeaways 

States lost an average of 15 percent of their peak COVID-era Medicaid enrollment between March 2023 and June 2024. Several effective practices could be adopted to address those individuals and families who remain eligible but not enrolled and to minimize procedural disenrollments in the future. Below is a snapshot of data and early insights Health Management Associates, Inc. (HMA), experts identified through their work with Medicaid stakeholders and analysis of Medicaid enrollment and eligibility data. 

• Some states are several months beyond their anticipated unwinding period. Still, more than half of states continue to see small net reductions in their Medicaid populations (see Table 1). 

Table 1. Enrollment Changes during and after Unwinding, September 2024 

• Despite the ongoing enrollment reductions, net Medicaid enrollment generally remains above pre-pandemic levels and is likely to remain so. This enrollment change has been boosted by several states—Idaho, Utah, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Missouri, South Dakota, and North Carolina—which expanded their Medicaid programs immediately before or during the COVID-19 pandemic. 
• Following the official end of the Medicaid unwinding period, the acuity of the Medicaid population increased significantly. Early actuarial assessments, including those conducted by HMA actuaries, indicate that the average Medicaid population is older and sicker than before the unwinding started. Consequently, Medicaid populations may be more complex and expensive to manage—prompting states and managed care plans to reassess their capitation rates for current and future years. The 24th annual Medicaid Budget Survey conducted by The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and Health Management Associates (HMA), in collaboration with the National Association of Medicaid Directors (NAMD), also provides key take-aways on provider rates and managed care, among other issues in the report As Pandemic-Era Policies End, Medicaid Programs Focus on Enrollee Access and Reducing Health Disparities Amid Future Uncertainties: Results from an Annual Medicaid Budget Survey for State Fiscal Years 2024 and 2025. 

Medicaid Managed Care Enrollment Update – Q2 2024 

Today, HMA Information Services (HMAIS) posted a quarterly update for Medicaid managed care enrollment. We collected and analyzed monthly Medicaid enrollment data from the second quarter (Q2) of 2024 (April−June) in capitated, risk-based managed care in 29 states. These data allow for the timely analysis of enrollment trends across states and MCOs as well as state and plan-specific analyses of managed care enrollment following the official end of the Medicaid unwinding period.1  

The 29 states highlighted in this review have released monthly Medicaid managed care enrollment data via a public website or in response to HMA’s public records request. This report reflects the most recent data posted or obtained. HMA has made the following observations related to the enrollment data (see Table 2): 

• As of June 2024, Medicaid managed care enrollment across the 29 states tracked in this report was 62.7 million, down by 10.2 million (14 percent) year over year. 
• In our review, all but one state, Mississippi, saw decreases in enrollment in June 2024 because of Medicaid redeterminations. 
• The 22 expansion states included in the review—Arizona, California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia—have seen net Medicaid managed care enrollment decrease by 6.2 million (11.1 percent) in the past year, to 50.1 million members at the end of Q2 2024. 
• The seven states that had not expanded Medicaid as of June 2024—Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin—have seen Medicaid managed care enrollment decrease 24 percent to 12.6 million members at the end of Q2 2024. 

Table 2. Monthly MCO Enrollment by State, April−June 2024 

It is important to note the limitations of the data presented. First, not all states report the data at the same time during the month. Some of these figures reflect beginning of the month totals, whereas others reflect an end of the month snapshot. Second, in some cases the data are comprehensive in that they cover all state-sponsored health programs that offer managed care options; in other cases, the data reflect only a subset of the broader managed Medicaid population. This limitation complicates comparison of the data described above with figures reported by publicly traded Medicaid MCOs. Hence, the data in Table 1 should be viewed as a sampling of enrollment trends across these states rather than a comprehensive comparison, which cannot be established based solely on publicly available monthly enrollment data. 

Connect with Us 

More detailed information on the Medicaid managed care landscape is available with a subscription to HMAIS, which collects and aggregates Medicaid enrollment data, health plan financials, and additional actionable information about eligibility expansions, demonstration and waiver initiatives, as well as population- and service-specific information, such as Medicare and Medicaid dually eligible beneficiaries, ABD populations, long-term services and supports, and patient-centered medical homes. HMAIS also includes a comprehensive public documents library containing Medicaid requests for proposals and responses, model contracts, scoring sheets, and protests.  

For additional analysis of the Medicaid unwinding initiative and HMAIS’s enrollment data and subscription service, contact our featured experts below.

The 24^th annual Medicaid Budget Survey conducted by The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and Health Management Associates (HMA), in collaboration with the National Association of Medicaid Directors (NAMD), was released on October 23, 2024 in the report As Pandemic-Era Policies End, Medicaid Programs Focus on Enrollee Access and Reducing Health Disparities Amid Future Uncertainties: Results from an Annual Medicaid Budget Survey for State Fiscal Years 2024 and 2025.

At the end of state fiscal year (FY) 2024 and heading into FY 2025, states were wrapping up the unwinding of the pandemic-related continuous enrollment provision, focusing on an array of other priorities, and facing uncertainty about the stability of state revenues. States were also looking ahead to federal and state elections in November and the potential implications of those elections for Medicaid enrollees, states, and providers. As states have emerged from the now-expired COVID-19 Public Health Emergency, which profoundly affected Medicaid enrollment and spending, many are focused on using Medicaid to address long-standing health disparities (often exacerbated by the pandemic), improve access to behavioral health services and long-term services and supports (LTSS), address enrollee social determinants of health, and implement broader delivery system and value-based initiatives. The report includes key take-aways on provider rates and managed care, benefits and prescription drugs, and social determinants of health and reducing health disparities.  

The report was prepared by Kathleen Gifford, Aimee Lashbrook, and Caprice Knapp from HMA; and by Elizabeth Hinton, Elizabeth Williams, Jada Raphael, Anna Mudumala, Robin Rudowitz from the Kaiser Family Foundation. The survey was conducted in collaboration with NAMD.

Other links:
Press release
Growth and Spending report