Insights

Our second In Focus section reviews the most recent Medicaid enrollment trends in capitated risk-based managed care programs in 29 states.^[1] Health Management Associates Information Services (HMAIS) collected and analyzed monthly Medicaid enrollment data from the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024.

The data offer a timely overview of trends in Medicaid managed care enrollment and valuable insights into state-level and managed care organization (MCO)-specific enrollment patterns. This information allows state governments, their partners, and other organizations interested in Medicaid to track enrollment shifts. Understanding the underlying drivers of enrollment shifts is critical for shaping future Medicaid policies and adjusting program strategies amid a dynamic healthcare landscape.

Overview of the Data

The 29 states included in our review have released monthly Medicaid managed care enrollment data via a public website or in response to a public records request from Health Management Associates (HMA). This report reflects the most recent data posted or obtained. HMA has made the following observations related to the enrollment data (see Table 1):

• As of December 2024, across the 29 states tracked in this report, Medicaid managed care enrollment was 61.7 million, down by 3.6 million (-5.5%) year-over-year.
• Though most states experienced declines in enrollment, six states saw enrollment increases as of December 2024—double the number of states from the previous year.

Figure 1. Year-Over-Year Medicaid Managed Care Enrollment Percent Change in Select States, 2020−24

• Among the 22 expansion states included in this report, net Medicaid managed care enrollment has decreased by 2.1 million (-4%) to 49.5 million members at the end of Q4 2024, compared with the same period in 2023.[2]
• Among the seven states included in this report that had not expanded Medicaid as of December 2024, net Medicaid managed care enrollment decreased by 1.5 million, or 1 percent, to 12.3 million members at the end of Q4 2024 compared with to the same period in 2023.

Table 1. Monthly MCO Enrollment by State—October through December 2024

It is important to note the limitations of the data presented. First, not all states report the data at the same time during the month. Some of these figures reflect beginning of the month totals, whereas others reflect an end of the month snapshot. Second, in some cases the data are comprehensive in that they cover all state-sponsored health programs that offer managed care options; in other cases, the data reflect only a subset of the broader managed Medicaid population. This limitation complicates comparison of the data described above with figures reported by publicly traded Medicaid MCOs. Hence, the data in Table 1 should be viewed as a sampling of enrollment trends across these states rather than as a comprehensive comparison, which cannot be established based solely on publicly available monthly enrollment data.

HMAIS also compiles a more detailed quarterly Medicaid managed care enrollment report representing nearly 300 health plans in 41 states. The report provides by plan enrollment plus corporate ownership, program inclusion, and for-profit vs. not-for-profit status, with breakout tabs for publicly traded plans. Table 2 shows a sampling of plans and their national market share of Medicaid managed care beneficiaries based on a total of 66.3 million enrollees. These data too should be viewed as a broader representation of enrollment trends rather than as a comprehensive comparison.

Table 2. National Medicaid Managed Care Market Share by Number of Beneficiaries for Sample of Publicly Traded Plans, 2024

What to Watch

Enrollment in Medicaid MCOs has experienced significant fluctuations recently, influenced both by policy changes and economic factors. Since April 2023, Medicaid enrollment has been on a downward trajectory as states complete eligibility redeterminations after the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency. This trend, coupled with financial and political challenges, necessitates strategic planning for stakeholders to navigate the evolving Medicaid landscape effectively.​

Potential changes that may affect enrollment and require scenario and readiness planning include:

• Federal requirement, or a new state option, to implement Medicaid work requirements for at least some categories of enrollees
• Changes to the federal financial match policy, which may cause some states to make different decisions about their Affordable Care Act expansion program for adults
• Modifications in requirements and expectations for more efficient eligibility processes to improve the accuracy of determinations and assignment to eligibility categories

Connect with Us

HMA is home to experts who know the Medicaid managed care landscape at the federal and state levels. The HMAIS subscription provides point-in-time and longitudinal Medicaid enrollment data, health plan financials, and additional actionable information about eligibility expansions, demonstration and waiver initiatives, as well as population- and service-specific information. HMAIS also includes a comprehensive public documents library containing Medicaid requests for proposals and responses, model contracts, scoring sheets, and protests.

For detail about the HMAIS enrollment report and subscription service, contact our experts below.

[1] Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin.

[2] Health Management Associates, Inc. Medicaid Managed Care Enrollment Update—Q4 2023. HMA Weekly Roundup. April 17, 2024. Available at: https://www.healthmanagement.com/insights/weekly-roundup/april-17-2024/#in-focus2.

CMS approves average increase of 5.06 percent for MA plans while deferring major policy changes in MA and Part D programs

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released the 2026 Medicare Advantage (MA) and Part D Rate Announcement on April 7, 2025, finalizing payment updates for calendar year (CY) 2026. This announcement came shortly after the release of the Contract Year 2026 MA, Part D, and PACE Policy and Technical Changes Final Rule, on April 4, 2025. Together, these updates mark the conclusion of CMS’s annual rulemaking cycle for Medicare Advantage, ahead of the June 2, 2025, deadline for 2026 MA plan bids.

Notably, because of the timing of the draft notices and proposed rule, Trump Administration officials ultimately had more input into policies omitted from the rate notice and final policy rule than on policies that were finalized. For example, the final rule is exclusive of proposals to expand coverage for anti-obesity medications, guardrails for artificial intelligence (AI), and new requirements related to utilization management and prior authorization procedures.

In his confirmation hearing, CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz, MD, cited Medicare Advantage prior authorization practices and health risk assessments that lead to upcoding as areas that deserve further consideration and scrutiny, raising the potential for future regulatory shifts and even legislative reform. With the possibility of Medicare, including MA, facing cuts as part of broader budget negotiations in Congress, the rate notice and policy rule offer program stability counterbalancing the political and fiscal pressures that may emerge this year.

CMS has sought to stabilize MA and Part D programs into 2026, and stakeholders can benefit from understanding the impact in markets for 2026 and the signals of potential regulatory changes to come. For more in-depth analysis and insights on the rate notice, look for our policy and actuarial experts’ brief due out next week.

The remainder of this In Focus article reviews CMS’s decisions on major payment and policy proposals in the Rate Announcement and Final Rule and examines key considerations for healthcare stakeholders.

Payment Impact on Medicare Advantage Organizations

In the CY 2026 Rate Announcement, CMS projects that federal payments to MA plans will increase by 5.06 percent from 2025 to 2026, which represents a $25 billion increase in expected payments to MA plans next year. According to CMS, this represents an increase of 2.83 percentage points compared with the CY 2026 Advance Notice that is largely attributable to an increase in the effective growth rate. The increase in the effective growth rate—increasing to 9.04 percent in the Rate Announcement from 5.93 percent in the Advance Notice—is primarily the result of the inclusion of additional data on Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) expenditures, including payment data through the fourth quarter of 2024.

The Rate Announcement estimates represent the average increase in payments to MA plans and actual payments will vary from plan to plan. Below, Table 1 provides CMS estimates of the impact of finalized payment changes on net MA plan payments.

MA Risk Adjustment Changes

As expected, CMS finalized the last year of the three-year phase-in of the MA risk adjustment model, which requires calculating 100 percent of the risk scores using only the 2024 CMS-HCC (Hierarchical Condition Category) model in 2026. CMS also addressed stakeholder concerns with the planned transition toward a risk adjustment model based on MA encounter data, as previewed in the CMS CY 2026 Advance Notice. CMS pledged to engage stakeholders in this model development process while continuing to evaluate the feasibility, transparency, and timing of a future transition to an encounter-based risk adjustment model.

CMS also finalized the MA coding pattern adjustment factor of 5.9 percent for CY 2026, which is the statutory minimum adjustment factor to account for differences in coding patterns between MA plans and providers under Medicare FFS Parts A and B.

Part D Risk Adjustment

For CY 2026, CMS finalized the revised 2026 RxHCC model with adjustments for maximum fair price drugs. Importantly, CMS also finalized using separate FFS normalization factors for MA-Prescription Drug (MA-PD) plans and Prescription Drug Plans (PDPs), making 2026 the second year CMS will vary normalization for these two markets. The calculation of the factors for CY 2026 is different, however, and will have substantially greater impact than the method used previously. It also will reduce Part D risk scores significantly for MA-PD plans while increasing scores for PDPs.

MA Star Ratings

CMS continues to solicit feedback from stakeholders on ways to simplify and refocus MA Star Ratings measures to focus more on clinical care, outcomes, and patient experience of care measures. Also included in the CY 2026 Rate Announcement are non-substantive measure specification updates and a list of measures included in the Part C and Part D improvement measures and categorical adjustment index for the 2026 Star Ratings.

Separately, in the policy and technical changes rule, CMS finalized new regulatory requirements designed to enhance MA beneficiary protections in an inpatient setting, provisions related to allowable special supplemental benefits for the chronically ill (SSBCI), and the care experience for dually eligible beneficiaries enrolled in MA special needs plans.

Enhancing MA Beneficiary Appeal Rights and Notification Requirements

CMS is finalizing provisions that limit the ability of MA plans to reopen and modify a previously approved inpatient hospital decision on the basis of information gathered after the approval. Under the final rule, MA plans will be able to reopen an approved hospital admission only due to error or fraud. In addition, CMS finalized several provisions to enhance beneficiary appeal rights and new reporting and notice requirements, including:

• Ensuring that MA appeals rules apply to adverse plan decisions, regardless of whether the decision was made before, during, or after the receipt of such services
• Codifying existing guidance that requires plans to give a provider notice of a coverage decision
• Ensuring enrollees have a right to appeal MA plan coverage denials that affect their ongoing source of treatment

Non-Allowable Special Supplemental Benefits for the Chronically Ill

The final rule establishes guardrails for SSBCI benefits by codifying a list of non-allowable examples (e.g., unhealthy food, alcohol, tobacco, life insurance). CMS did not finalize proposals that were designed to improve administration of supplemental benefits and enhance transparency of the availability of such benefits.

Improving Care Experience for Dual Eligibles

CMS finalized new requirements for dual eligible special needs plans (D-SNPS) that are applicable integrated plans (AIPs) as follows:

• D-SNPs will be required to have integrated member ID cards for their Medicare and Medicaid plans
• D-SNPs will be required to conduct an integrated health risk assessment for Medicare and Medicaid, rather than separate ones for each program.

These provisions affecting certain D-SNPS plans will be effective for the 2027 plan year.

Provisions Pertaining to the Medicare Part D Inflation Reduction Act

CMS is finalizing proposals to codify existing requirements related to key provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, including no cost sharing for adult vaccines and capping monthly copayments for insulin at $35. In addition, CMS is codifying existing guidance related to the implementation of the Medicare Prescription Payment Plan, which is also part of the Inflation Reduction Act.

Key Proposals CMS Has Yet to Finalize

As noted earlier, CMS finalized a streamlined rule that excluded several regulatory changes identified in the November 2024 proposed rule. In addition to provisions related to coverage of anti-obesity medications, guardrails for AI, and mandatory analysis of the health equity impact of MA plans utilization management practices, the following proposals were not finalized. CMS notes that these proposals might be finalized in future rulemaking.

• Expanding Medicare Part D Medication Therapy Management (MTM) eligibility criteria
• Ensuring equitable access to behavioral health services by applying MA cost-sharing limits
• Enhancing the Medicare Plan Finder to include information on plan provider directories
• Promoting informed choice by enhancing CMS review of MA marketing and communication materials
• Enhancing rules on MA plans’ use of internal coverage criteria

Key Considerations

The policies finalized in the CY 2026 Rate Announcement are projected to increase average Part C payments to MA plans by 5.06 percent in CY 2026—a significant uptick from the payment updates originally proposed in the CY 2026 Advance Notice. Nonetheless, the final rate increase will have varying effects across MA plans, with some experiencing larger or smaller impacts in CY 2026. MA plans should assess these outcomes as they prepare their bid submissions for 2026.

According to the CY 2026 Rate Announcement, CMS expects that the 5.06 percent increase will provide continued stability for the MA program and its beneficiaries while ensuring accurate and appropriate payments to Medicare Advantage organizations.

In the CY 2026 MA and Part D Final Rule, CMS adopted a significantly scaled-back final rule, which omitted some of the more far-reaching proposals for MA and Part D that were originally proposed in November 2024. CMS, however, could potentially revisit and finalize some of these proposals in future rulemaking. Moreover, new regulatory requirements that enhance enrollee protections in inpatient care settings and improving the care experience for dual eligibles signal CMS’s continued interest in improving program oversight and enhancing consumer protections for MA beneficiaries.

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MA stakeholders need to undertake scenario planning and be prepared to adapt to a rapidly evolving federal policy environment. From modeling and impact assessments of specific policy changes to strategy development and implementation, HMA is home to experts with diverse skill sets. Our team can help stakeholders assess and prepare for potential changes to prior authorization, looking holistically at their organization’s operations, patient care models, and reimbursement strategies. Our team also provides detailed modeling and assessments to ensure health plans are prepared for changes in risk adjustment and coding policies, supplemental benefits, and other key issues affecting capitation payment, bids, and care delivery models.

For details about the finalized payment and policy rules contact our featured experts below.

Medicare stakeholders are awaiting the imminent release of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) final Medicare Advantage and Part D rate notice and technical updates, as well as a final policy rule that establishes a significantly new direction for Medicare Advantage (MA) stakeholders. These final rules typically are released in April of each year.

In addition, the agency kicks off the annual cycle of payment rules for traditional fee-for-service Medicare, including the first wave of proposed rules that typically are released in April for the forthcoming payment year. These proposed rules for 2026 pertain to the following: Hospital Inpatient Prospective Payment System for Acute Care Hospitals, the Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Payment System, the Home Health Payment System, and the Inpatient Psychiatric Facility Payment System. A second wave of 2026 proposed rules are typically released in July, including the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule and the Hospital Outpatient Prospective Payment System.

The MA rules and the first wave of Medicare Part A and Part B rules are highly anticipated regulations and now under review at the Office of Management and Budget. These rules are expected to be released in the coming days and weeks.

Why These Rules Matter

The rules set the rates for MA and reimbursement for a significant number of healthcare providers and facilities that serve Medicare beneficiaries. The rules also contain important information about CMS’s quality reporting programs and bonus payments and other changes required for Medicare stakeholders to ensure compliance.

What’s Different About 2025 Proposals

In the first year of a new presidential administration, CMS leaders have a limited window to include their policy priorities in the MA and Part D Final Rate Notice. CMS may, however, decline to finalize some or all of the prior administration’s proposals. Key issues that Health Management Associates (HMA), experts are watching for in the final rules include:

• Whether CMS chooses to delay or not finalize significant policy changes proposed by the Biden Administration, including new requirements and guardrails around the use of prior authorization
• Potential finalization of improvements to the Medicare plan finder
• Direction on oversight of MA plan marketing activities
• CMS decision and response to the proposal to expand coverage of anti-obesity medications under Medicare Part D and Medicaid

Stakeholders can access HMA’s review of the contract year (CY) 2026 MA and Part D proposed rule and key considerations here and our review of the 2026 Advance Notice for the Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D programs here.

Similarly, in the first year of a presidential transition, CMS has a narrower opportunity to shape Medicare’s first set of proposed payment and policy rules. The agency may, however, begin to signal important policy direction on a global level and technical issues that can have an impact on Medicare stakeholders. HMA experts are watching in particular for requests for information and other signals of CMS’s Medicare priorities, including reforms in quality reporting, value-based contracting, pricing and contract transparency, among others.

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HMA’s expert consultants provide the advanced policy, tailored analysis, and operational skills you need to navigate today’s rapidly evolving regulatory landscape and to support implementation of final policies. Don’t let the uncertainty of future policies derail your strategic plans or burden your teams.

For details about the forthcoming Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare regulations, contact one of our featured experts below.