In this week’s In Focus, we continue our review of Medicare developments from this summer and look ahead at Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) activities to watch for this fall.
CMS ACO Strategy Update
In a July 31, 2023, Health Affairs Forefront blog, CMS leaders outlined the agency’s plan to further accelerate the growth and accessibility of accountable care organizations (ACOs), especially for beneficiaries in rural and underserved areas. The article signals the agency’s continued commitment to increasing participation in ACOs and future policy and model initiatives that CMS could undertake to achieve those goals.
In particular, the CMS Innovation Center is considering testing models and features to support Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) ACOs in increasing investments in primary care. This initiative might include piloting ACO-based primary care models that provide prospective payments in an effort to reduce reliance on fee-for-service (FFS), support innovations in care delivery, and increase access to advanced primary care in underserved communities.
CMS leaders point to a second component of its ACO strategy in the calendar year (CY) 2024 proposed Medicare Physician Fee Schedule (PFS) rule. The proposed PFS includes technical updates to the Advance Investment Payment (AIP), which provides financial support for providers who participate in the MSSP. The proposed PFS rule also includes several opportunities for the public to inform CMS’s ongoing ACO work, including considerations for adding higher-risk participation options in the MSSP, ways to better support collaboration between ACOs and community-based organizations to meet health-related social needs, and other initiatives. HMA discussed the PFS changes in an earlier In Focus.
CMS also announced refinements to the ACO Realizing Equity, Access, and Community Health (REACH) Model on August 18. The agency’s three goals in making these changes are to:
Increase predictability for model participants (e.g., policies to change certain beneficiary alignment requirements and refinements to eligibility criteria for high-need ACOs
Protect against inappropriate risk score growth (e.g., revisions to the risk-adjustment methodology)
Advance health equity (e.g., revisions and expansions to the health equity benchmark adjustment)
These topics are of importance to CMS across its model portfolio and are, in part, based on experience the agency has gained in running the ACO REACH model. Below is a summary of several key policy changes that will take effect in 2024. The entire list can be found on the CMS website.
Finally, CMS released the request for applications (RFA) for the Innovation Center’s Making Care Primary (MCP) model previously announced in June. This voluntary model is scheduled to begin in June 2024 and run for 10.5 years. It will have three participation tracks that build upon previous Innovation Center primary care initiatives.
The MCP model is designed to improve care for beneficiaries by supporting the delivery of advanced primary care services. This framework provides a pathway for primary care clinicians who have varying levels of experience with value-based care to gradually adopt prospective, population-based payments while building the infrastructure to improve behavioral health and specialty integration and drive more equitable access to care. CMS is working with Medicaid agencies in eight states—Colorado, North Carolina, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Washington—to engage in full care transformation across payers, with plans to engage private payers in the coming months.
The RFA provides additional details about the model’s payment, care delivery, quality, and other policies. The application period opens September 4, 2023, and closes November 30, 2023. CMS plans to select participants in winter 2024. Onboarding for participants will take place April−July 2024.
The HMA team continues to review the RFA and is available to assist clients in determining whether this model may be a good fit as well as with assistance in submitting the application.
What to Watch
Comments on the Medicare CY payment rules (home health, end stage renal disease, physician, and outpatient hospital) are due in early fall. CMS will review the comments on each of the proposals and finalize each rule by November 1. Some stakeholders, such as physicians and home health suppliers, may seek congressional action to mitigate payment cuts that CMS has proposed.
In addition, CMS is expected to continue implementing the drug pricing related provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The agency already has released several guidance documents about the process. The list of the first 10 drugs to be negotiated is due to be published September 1, 2023, and manufacturers of selected drugs will have one month to sign agreements to participate in negotiations and provide information for CMS’s consideration in the negotiation process.
The HMA team will continue to evaluate Innovation Center opportunities, CMS payment regulations, and IRA implementation. If you have questions about these topics, contact Amy Bassano ([email protected]), Kevin Kirby ([email protected]), or Andrea Maresca ([email protected]).
If you search the term “value-based care” on the internet you will find over 2.5 million hits on that term alone. No one would disagree with the need to provide value to patients and purchasers, but how we define value differs based on where we sit. Value is paying for outcomes, not volume of services. Value is ensuring that patients get the right care at the right time. Value is ensuring that purchasers pay a reasonable cost for the highest possible quality. Value is ensuring that healthcare is provided equitably and sustainably. Implementing value is even trickier than defining it, given the complexity of who pays for care and the challenges of measuring the outcomes we seek to reward.
From the top office of HHS to the back office of a health center and everywhere in between, HMA leaders have been part of our collective journey to value: advancing policy and regulatory change, calculating risk and setting prices, crafting alternative payment models, integrating social services and behavioral health, and coaching industry leaders to make important changes to their business models to adapt to a more sustainable approach to American healthcare. These experiences – both successes and challenges – provide a unique perspective from which to advise clients on transformation of healthcare.
The HMA 2023 fall conference, scheduled for October 30-31, 2023, has thoughtfully curated several discussions to educate, enlighten and motivate attendees on industry standards and navigating the practicality of providing value in care, coverage, and patient experience in publicly funded healthcare:
Leading the Charge on Value, Equity and Growth: The Future of Publicly Sponsored Healthcare: Discuss how these public programs came to be the industry standard bearers and what this shift means for outcomes, affordability, policy, and the overall direction of U.S. healthcare.
Positive Change and the Growing Importance of Managed Care in Publicly Sponsored Healthcare: Discuss the future of publicly sponsored healthcare, outline promising initiatives aimed at improving coverage and care, and address key concerns over funding, policy, equity, and coordination between government, plans, providers, and members.
The Future of Delivery Systems: Achieving Operational and Financial Sustainability: Discuss a wide range of practical approaches to prepare for the future, including managing cash flow, optimizing the workforce, developing long-term reimbursement plans, improving operational efficiency, and addressing changes in government policy.
Real Talk from the Trenches of Value-based Payments: Learn about the advantages and pitfalls of value-based payments, with important insights from organizations that have made it work.
Navigating Change in Medicare Advantage: A Roadmap for Success: Discuss what Medicare Advantage plans must do to meet the demanding, new requirements – all against a backdrop of continued efforts to improve equity, access, outcomes, and cost.
In addition, a pre-conference workshop on behavioral health will be held the afternoon of October 29th, prior to the official start of the conference. This workshop will highlight the integral role of behavioral healthcare in improving patient outcomes across the continuum of publicly sponsored healthcare programs.
We are excited to engage with industry experts throughout these discussions about value-based care and forge a better path forward toward a more sustainable and equitable system of care.
This week, our In Focus section continues analysis and insights from Health Management Associates (HMA) and its affiliate The Moran Company on recent Medicare payment and policy developments. Today, we review the policy changes that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released August 1, 2023, for the fiscal year (FY) 2024 Medicare Hospital Inpatient Prospective Payment System (IPPS) and Long-Term Acute Care Hospital (LTCH) final rule (CMS-1788-F).
This year’s IPPS final rule includes several important policy changes that will alter hospital margins and change administrative procedures beginning October 1, 2023. More specifically, the IPPS rule increases payments to hospitals, enhances the wage index policy for rural hospitals, reduces Medicare disproportionate share payments, and modifies the New Technology Add-on Payment (NTAP) program.
Key provisions of the FY 2024 Hospital IPPS and LTCH Final Rule
We highlight four policies that will significantly affect Medicare beneficiaries, hospitals, health systems, payers, and manufacturers:
Hospital market basket update and the inpatient standardized amount
CMS’s Medicare 2024 IPPS final rule will increase payments to acute care hospitals by an estimated $2.2 billion from 2023. The primary driver of this increase is CMS’s 3.1 percent increase in the annual update to inpatient operating payment rates. The update is the sum of the hospital market basket update of 3.3 percent and a statutorily required 0.2 percentage point reduction for productivity growth.
HMA/Moran analysis: Between the time CMS released the 2024 proposed IPPS rule and the final rule, the inpatient payment update for 2024 increased to 3.1 percent from 2.8 percent. This spike occurred because of the effects of an increase in estimated inflation on the cost of a standard basket of hospital goods (hospital market basket) throughout 2022 and 2023. Although economy-wide inflation slowed in mid-2023, inflation was higher in late 2022 and early 2023—the period in which the market basket is measured for the final rule.
For beneficiaries, increasing payment rates eventually will lead to a higher Medicare inpatient deductible and greater out-of-pocket costs for many other services. For hospitals and healthcare systems, payers, and manufacturers, a payment increase of 3.1 percent falls below economy-wide inflation (5−6 percent in recent months).
Despite the publicized 3.1 percent payment update for 2024, after factoring in various policy adjustments the actual change between 2023 and 2024 to inpatient payments per case will be roughly 2 percent. The primary reason per-case payments will increase only 2 percent is a budget-neutrality adjustment that CMS finalized for 2024 to account for hospital wage index reclassifications. This adjustment will reduce payments to all hospitals by more than 1 percent to neutralize the added program spending associated with payments to hospitals that choose to reclassify into higher paying wage index areas. The final rule states, “[T]he geographic reclassification budget neutrality adjustment is significantly larger than in prior years.”
Medicare Disproportionate Share Hospital Payments
CMS finalized two Medicare disproportionate share hospital (DSH)-related policies for 2024. First, DSH payments and Medicare uncompensated care payments combined will decrease in FY 2024 by approximately $957 million. Second, CMS finalized its proposal to limit the number of patient days included in the Medicare DSH calculation to only those days when the patient’s Medicaid Section 1115 Demonstration health insurance covers inpatient hospital services or the patient’s premium assistance program covers 100 percent of the premium cost for patients who buy health insurance that covers inpatient hospital services, if the patient is ineligible for Medicare Part A.
HMA/Moran analysis: CMS’s $957 million reduction in DSH and uncompensated care payments stems from the agency’s estimate of the percentage of individuals without insurance in the United States. Between the 2024 proposed and final rules, CMS estimates the percentage of individuals without insurance will decline from 9.3 percent to 7.7 percent in 2023 and from 9.2 percent to 8.5 percent in 2024. As a result, the pool of uncompensated care dollars available to hospitals for 2024 was reduced from roughly $6.7 billion to $5.9 billion.
CMS’s estimated decline in the rate of uninsured beneficiaries is somewhat surprising given the common projection that Medicaid enrollment will drop following the end of Medicaid’s COVID-19 related continuous coverage policy. However, HMA/Moran colleagues believe state-level Medicaid enrollment changes will vary in the year ahead. Consequently, hospitals located in states where levels of Medicaid enrollment are sustained will benefit from CMS’s uninsured rate estimates and hospitals in states where Medicaid enrollment drops will not.
With regard to the Section 1115 demonstration related DSH policy, hospitals located in states that have not expanded Medicaid under the Accountable Care Act and instead rely on Section 1115 Demonstrations to expand health coverage, are likely to receive lower DSH payments. In addition to the Medicare DSH payment adjustments, reductions in the Medicaid DSH program are scheduled to begin October 1, 2023. The $8 billion reduction in FY 2024 is the first time CMS has planned to make cuts in the program.
Hospital Wage Index Adjustments
CMS finalized two wage index policies for FY 2024. First, CMS will extend the low-wage index hospital policy, which boosts the wage index of hospitals in geographic areas with low wages relative to other areas. Second, CMS finalized a policy to begin including labor data from urban hospitals that choose to reclassify as providers in rural areas to maximize their payment into the calculation of rural wage index areas.
HMA/Moran analysis: These two wage index policies for FY 2024 will increase payment to rural hospitals. Under the first policy, hospitals with wage indexes below 0.8667 (the 25th percentile across all hospitals) will automatically receive an increase in their wage index and therefore their payment rates for inpatient cases. Under the second policy, the inclusion of labor data for geographically urban hospitals that choose to reclassify into rural wage index areas within the calculation of state-level rural wage indexes and the state-level rural floor will increase payments to rural hospitals in many states. The overall impact of both proposed wage index policy changes for FY 2024 will be an increase in inpatient payment rates for rural hospitals.
New Technology Add-On Payments (NTAP)
Citing the increased number of applications for NTAP over the past several years and noting the need for CMS staff to have time to review and analyze the applications, CMS finalized two changes to the NTAP application requirements. First, CMS will require that all applicants have a complete and active U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) market authorization request in place at the time of NTAP application submission, if not already FDA approved. The FDA’s acceptance letter will serve as proof of a full and complete application. In addition, CMS proposes to move the FDA approval deadline from July 1 to May 1, beginning with applications for FY 2025.
HMA/Moran analysis: The stated aim of these CMS policy changes is to “increase transparency, facilitate public input, and improve the review process.” As a result of these modifications, products will need to be on the market longer before the NTAP payment begins, and fewer products will be eligible for the three full years of NTAP payments. Taken together, hospitals will have a shorter NTAP payment window for most products. The further tightening of FDA application and approval requirements runs counter to the efforts of various stakeholders to establish more flexible or additional NTAP application windows.
HMA and The Moran Company collaborate to monitor legislative and regulatory developments in the inpatient hospital space and assess the impact of inpatient policy changes on the hospital sector. HMA’s Medicare experts interpret and model inpatient policy proposals and use these analyses to help clients develop their strategic plans and their comments on proposed regulations. Moran replicates the methodologies CMS uses in setting hospital payments and models alternative payment policies to help support stakeholder comment letters and strategies. Moran also assists clients with modeling diagnosis-related group reassignment requests and to support innovative NTAP applications.
This week, our In Focus section is the second in a summer series of analysis and insights from Health Management Associates (HMA) on recent Medicare payment and policy developments. This week we dig deeper into the potential changes to the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) that were included in the 2024 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule proposed rule released earlier this month. Specifically, we highlight the impact these modifications could have on financial and operational decisions across the healthcare industry.
The proposed rule builds on the changes CMS finalized last year with the goal of increasing participation in the MSSP. The recommended changes are designed to appeal to more clinicians who treat a high proportion of underserved individuals. CMS estimates that the proposal will increase participation in MSSP by 10−20 percent. These changes are technical in nature and include:
Expanding the physician lookback window for beneficiary assignment (also known as the pre-step) for primary care service to 24 months from 12 months
Adding a third step to the claims-based beneficiary assignment methodology to recognize the role of nurse practitioners (NPs), physician assistants (PAs), and clinical nurse specialists (CNSs) in delivering primary care services
Modifying the definition of “assignable beneficiary” to reflect the changes above
The overall impact of these modifications, which augment the existing methodology, is to increase the number of beneficiaries assigned to accountable care organizations (ACOs) under MSSP. More assignable beneficiaries could mean:
More ACOs will meet minimum beneficiary requirements.
Changes in assignable population may affect the hierarchical condition category (HCC) risk scores for the national assignable population, as well as the factors used to normalize risk scores and other risk adjustments.
Changes in population distribution within regions that result in adjustments to ACO market share, benchmark trends, and update factors.
For ACOs participating in multiple programs, expanded assignment rules for MSSP, combined with the MSSP superseding other programs in assignment, may have downstream effects on programs in terms of assignment and performance.
Following is a more detailed explanation of the proposed changes.
24-Month Lookback for Primary Care Services
Extending the lookback for primary care services with a physician to 24 months from 12 will allow providers to capture additional primary care services codes related to the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) for benchmark and performance years. If the assignment window for a benchmark or performance year includes any month(s) during the PHE, then the additional primary care services codes must apply to all months in that window.
Three-Step Assignment Process
CMS plans to update its current two-step claims-based beneficiary assignment process to a three-step process, which would be effective for performance years beginning January 1, 2025. The proposed third step only would apply to beneficiaries who do not meet the pre-step requirement contingent upon whether they received at least one primary care service during the expanded window for assignment from an ACO-participating primary care or specialist physician or received at least one primary care service from a non-physician ACO healthcare professional during the 12-month assignment window.
Assignable Beneficiary Definition
The proposed rule includes updates to the definition of an assignable beneficiary to reflect the expanded 24-month lookback window for assignment and the new third step of a primary care service within the 12-month assignment window from a non-physician ACO professional (i.e., NP, PA, CNS).
The table below compares the current and proposed assignment processes.
Comparison of the Two- and Three-Step Processes
Step
Current Two-Step Beneficiary Assignment Process
Proposed Three-Step Beneficiary Assignment Process
Pre-Step Requirement to Identify Assignable Beneficiary
CMS identifies beneficiaries who received at least one primary care service from a primary care physician or a physician with a primary specialty designation participating in an ACO in the 12-month lookback window. CMS determines whether these individuals are eligible for assignment to an ACO.
CMS identifies beneficiaries who received at least one primary care service from a primary care physician or a physician with a primary specialty designation participating in an ACO in the 24-month lookback window.
Step 1
Determine if beneficiaries received the plurality of their primary care services from primary care physicians, NPs, PAs, and CNSs in the participating ACO.
No change
Step 2
If not assigned in Step 1, determine whether beneficiaries received the plurality of primary care services from specialists in the participating ACO.
No change
Step 3
Not applicable
For beneficiaries not assigned through Steps 1 and 2:· Determine if beneficiary received at least one primary care service with a non-physician ACO professional (e.g., NP, PA, or CNS) in the ACO during the applicable 12-month assignment window; AND· Confirm beneficiary received at least one primary care service with a primary care physician or specialist who is an ACO professional in the ACO and who is a primary care physician or a non-physician ACO professional (i.e., NP, PA, CNS) during the applicable 12- month expanded window for assignment.
Financial Considerations
The proposed rule outlines that the expenditure lookback will remain 12 months. With a 24-month primary care service window and a 12-month expenditure lookback, ACO revenues could change. As a result, minimum savings rates could drop and the per-member per-month amount might change. In addition, the extended lookback could affect the regional average risk-adjusted spending, expenditure thresholds, and more.
Enhanced MSSP Track
CMS is seeking comment on a new track in MSSP with a higher level of risk and potential reward (e.g., somewhere between 80−100 percent). The purpose of the new MSSP track is to encourage ACOs that would not have otherwise participated in MSSP because of limitations on upside rewards. Higher potential rewards may also incentivize ACOs to develop new strategies, focus on specialty care integration, and reduce healthcare fragmentation to achieve savings.
CMS is seeking comment on the following:
Policy/model design elements that could be implemented so that CMS could offer a higher risk track without increasing program expenditures
Approaches to protect ACOs that serve high-risk beneficiaries from expenditure outliers and reduce incentives for ACOs to avoid high-risk beneficiaries
The impact that higher risk sharing could have on care delivery redesign, specialty integration, and ACO investment in healthcare providers and practices
The HMA Medicare and value-based care experts will continue to analyze these proposals alongside other policy and reimbursement changes that affect Medicare providers. We have the depth and breadth of expertise to assist with tailored analysis, to model policy impacts, and to support clients that intend to draft comment letters on this proposed rule. For more information or questions about these policies and other changes in the 2024 Medicare physician fee schedule proposed rule, contact Amy Bassano ([email protected]), Andrea Maresca ([email protected]), and Melissa Mannon ([email protected]).
This week’s In Focus section is the first in a summer series of analysis and insights from Health Management Associates (HMA) on recent Medicare payment and policy developments. Our series kicks off with a big-picture take on the slew of regulations the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has released over the past two weeks. In future posts, we will dig deeper into several of the planned changes to highlight their potential impact on financial and operational decisions across the healthcare industry.
HMA’s experts note several trends across these three Medicare payment regulations:
Health equity remains a significant focus of CMS and the Biden Administration.
The agency is expanding its coverage of behavioral health services under Medicare and enhancing payment and access for these services.
The long-term focus of CMS continues to be the transition toward value-based care.
Medicare is incrementally moving toward supporting care that is delivered where and how Medicare beneficiaries prefer, for example moving away from reimbursing largely for face-to-face services and supporting reimbursement for telehealth services in more situations.
CMS is creating pathways for reimbursement for a broader range of clinicians and caregivers who are addressing Medicare beneficiaries’ care needs.
CMS continues its efforts to improve hospital price transparency with policies aimed at encouraging providers to publicly report data.
Medicare policy experts at HMA and is affiliate, The Moran Company, summarize details on these regulations below. These colleagues work collaboratively to monitor legislative and regulatory developments in the physician, 340B, and outpatient and ASC policy arenas and to assess the impact of changes in these reimbursement systems. HMA’s Medicare experts interpret and model policy proposals and use these analyses to assist clients in developing their strategic plans and comment on proposed regulations. Moran annually replicates the methodologies CMS uses to set payments and recommends alternative payment policies to help support its clients’ comments on various rules and to help clients understand the impact of specific policies. In addition, HMA’s other partner companies, including Wakely and Leavitt Partners, are monitoring these issues from their unique perspectives.
The Medicare PFS establishes payments and policies for physicians and other healthcare professionals. By statute, PFS payment rates will decline by 1.25 percent from CY 2023 to 2024. However, when coupled with budget neutrality adjustments for other policy changes, the proposed PFS conversion factor will decline by 3.34 percent. The impact of this reduction will vary by physician specialty.
Behavioral Health Services: CMS implements provisions in the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA), 2023, which would allow Medicare coverage and payment for the services of marriage and family therapists (MFTs) and mental health counselors (MHCs). CMS proposes to classify addiction counselors who meet certain requirements as MHCs. The rule outlines how these practitioners can enroll in Medicare and bill for services starting January 1, 2024. CMS is establishing new codes and payment for psychotherapy for crisis services and proposed refinements to Health and Behavior Assessment/Intervention codes to allow additional practitioners to bill for these services and to increase the valuations of timed behavioral health services. CMS seeks comment on ways to expand access to behavioral health services. CMS specifically is looking for information on digital therapies, remote physiologic monitoring, and remote therapeutic monitoring services.
Evaluation and Management (E/M) Office Visit Services: CMS proposed to implement separate payment for an add-on billing code to account for the additional resources associated with primary care or ongoing care related to a patient’s single serious or complex chronic condition. This complexity-based add-on code may be reported with all office and outpatient (O/O) and evaluation and management (E/M) visit level codes, and CMS estimates it will be reported for 38 percent of all O/O E/M visits initially. This estimate contributes to a significant portion of the relative value unit (RVU) budget-neutrality adjustment applied to the conversion factor. CMS also requests comments on evaluating E/M services more regularly and comprehensively including ways to improve data collection and methodologies to establish more timely improvements and accurate payments for E/M and other services.
Telehealth: CMS proposes several additions to the list of covered telehealth services and implements the various telehealth provisions included in CAA 2023, such as allowing the patient’s home to serve as an originating site. This provision would expand the scope of permitted telehealth providers and allow rural health clinics and federally qualified health centers (FQHCs) to provide telehealth services until December 31, 2024. In addition, CMS proposes opportunities for teaching physicians and medical residents to continue to use telehealth services to meet the supervision requirements via telehealth.
Caregiver Training Services: CMS proposed a new payment for practitioners who train caregivers to implement a treatment plan and support patients with diseases like dementia.
Payment for Community Health Integration, Social Determinants of Health (SDOH) Risk Assessment, and Principal Illness Navigation Provided by Social Workers, Community Health Workers, Care Navigators, and Peer Support Specialists: CMS is establishing opportunities for these services to be paid separately and account for the specific resources necessary to provide these services.
Dental Services: Although Medicare generally is prohibited from paying for dental services, CMS proposed to pay for certain dental services related to the treatment of head and neck cancers and when linked to other covered services used to treat cancer.
Discarded Drugs: The proposed rule continues the implementation process for a statutory requirement that drug and biological manufacturers refund amounts paid for discarded single-use prescription drug vials. CMS provides the list of products for which refunds would have been due in 2021, and the number of products included is expected to increase over time.
340B and Outpatient Offset Proposed Rule
In the 340B proposed rule, CMS proposed retrospective payments to 340B hospitals for incorrect payments made in CYs 2018−2022. After extensive litigation and a Supreme Court ruling, CMS will return to paying 340B hospitals for drugs using the formula of the average sales price (ASP) +6 percent, rather than the formula of the ASP −22.5 percent. In this proposed rule, CMS proposes to correct past underpayments to 340B hospitals by making lump sum payments to affected 340B hospitals. These retrospective payments are estimated to amount to $9 billion, and we anticipate payments will be made to hospitals at the beginning of CY 2024.
In addition, CMS proposed a corresponding prospectively budget neutrality offset to the 340B spending increase that will reduce hospital outpatient payments for non-drug outpatient services by 0.5 percent each year beginning in 2025. Specifically, CMS proposes to maintain this reduction until $7.8 billion in spending has been offset, which it estimates will take 16 years. The impact of this policy on the hospital industry will be significant and will create groups of winners and losers. Winners will include 340B hospitals, despite the fact that the outpatient offset will also affect their payment rates. Losers will include non-340B hospitals, particularly if their service mix is heavily focused on outpatient surgical services. Overall, the industry will observe a reduction in outpatient spending of roughly $300 million to $600 million per year for each of the 16 years the policy is in place.
Hospital Outpatient Proposed Rule (CY 2024)
Under the OPPS proposed rule, CMS would update payments for outpatient and ASC services by 2.8 percent in CY 2024 from CY 2023. This change will increase payments for hospital outpatient services by $1.9 billion and for ASC services by $170 million. In addition, if the 340B proposal is finalized, the 0.5 percent payment offset would not reduce CY 2024 OPPS payment rates but would begin reducing outpatient payments in CY 2025.
Behavioral Health: CMS proposes to establish the Intensive Outpatient Program (IOP) for behavioral health services provided to Medicare beneficiaries. The IOP proposal addresses one of the main gaps in behavioral health coverage in Medicare and promotes access to related services. CMS will define IOP as a distinct outpatient program of psychiatric services provided to individuals with acute mental illness or substance use disorder. Services could be provided at hospital outpatient departments, community mental health centers, FQHCs, and RHCs. Further, the agency proposed to establish two IOP service codes for each provider type—one for days with three services per day and another with four or more services per day.
Price Transparency: CMS proposes to increase the rigidity of its price transparency reporting program in an effort to improve hospital industry compliance with the reporting of hospital charge data to the public.
The HMA Medicare team and Moran Company reimbursement experts will continue to analyze these proposal alongside other policy and reimbursement changes that affect Medicare providers. We have the depth and breadth of expertise to assist with tailored analysis, to model policy impacts, and to support clients that intend to draft comment letters on this proposed rule.
This week, our In Focus section reviews the projected healthcare expenditure and enrollment data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Office of the Actuary, published June 14, 2023. The Office of the Actuary provides annual updates to historical and projected National Health Expenditure data on Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and other public insurance programs, as well as commercial healthcare insurance.
CMS projects that the average annual growth for national healthcare spending from now through 2031 will be 5.4 percent. CMS estimated that the number of insured individuals in the United States was projected to reach a high of 92.3 percent in 2022 and would decrease to 90.5 percent by 2031. CMS projects 93.6 million Medicaid and CHIP members will account for more than $1.2 trillion in annual spending in 2031 and that 76.4 million Medicare beneficiaries will account for more than $1.8 trillion in expenditures that year. A summary of other key takeaways from the actuarial report follows.
Enrollment Projections
Approximately 92 million people were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP programs in 2021. Enrollment is projected to have reached a high of 97.6 million in 2022 and is expected to fall between 2023 and 2026 because of Medicaid redeterminations. CMS projects the largest loss in 2024, with 8 million people leaving Medicaid and CHIP that year alone. By 2026, enrollment is projected to hit a low of 89.7 million and start to rise back up in the subsequent years until reaching 93.6 million enrollees in 2031.
Table 1. Historical and Projected Medicaid/CHIP Enrollment (in Millions)
Figure 1. Historical and Projected Medicaid/CHIP Enrollment (in Millions)
Medicare enrollment is projected to continue growing steadily. CMS estimates that Medicare beneficiaries totaled 63.6 million in 2022. By 2031, Medicare enrollment is expected to climb to 76.4 million.
Expenditure Projections
Medicaid expenditures are expected to grow by 5 percent on average in 2022−2031. In 2022, the Medicaid annual growth rate was projected to be −2.1 percent. Following the public health emergency unwinding, average expenditure growth would pick up to 5.6 percent in 2025−2031.
CMS estimated that total Medicaid and CHIP annual spending in 2022 was $828.4 million; by 2031, it is projected to hit $1.2 trillion. For context, private health insurance is projected to reach nearly $2.1 trillion in 2031.
Table 2. Historical and Projected Medicaid/CHIP Expenditures (in Billions)
Figure 2. Historical and Projected Medicaid/CHIP Expenditures (in Billions)
Medicare spending is projected to grow to more than $1.8 trillion in 2031 from $944.2 million in 2022. During this time, average annual expenditure growth is projected to be 7.5 percent. In 2022, spending growth dropped to 4.8 percent compared with 8.4 percent in 2021 because fee-for-service beneficiaries were using fewer emergency department services and as a result of reinstated payment rate cuts associated with the Medicare Sequester Relief Act of 2022.
Medicaid Expenditure Projections by Category
CMS provides a historical and projected breakdown of expenditures by category for Medicaid only (CHIP is bundled with Department of Defense and other public spending). Table 3 summarizes the projected change in annual expenditures for several categories of services and other expenditures. It also shows each category’s percentage contribution to total Medicaid expenditures and the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in 2021−2031 for each category of spending. Hospital spending, personal care/residential/other, and physician/clinical expenditures are projected to continue to be the largest contributors to overall Medicaid expenditures, together equaling approximately 65 percent of total expenditures in 2021 and a projected 66 percent in 2031.
Table 3. Historical and Projected Medicaid-Only Expenditures by Category, 2021-2031 (in Billions)
Innovations in Publicly Sponsored Healthcare: How Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplaces Are Driving Value, Equity, and Growth
Pre-Conference Workshop: October 29, 2023 Conference: October 30−31, 2023 Location: Fairmont Chicago, Millennium Park
Health Management Associates has announced the preliminary lineup of speakers for its sixth annual conference, Innovations in Publicly Sponsored Healthcare: How Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplaces Are Driving Value, Equity, and Growth.
Hundreds of executives from health plans, providers, state and federal government, investment firms, and community-based organizations will convene to enjoy top-notch content, make new connections, and garner fresh ideas and best practices.
A pre-conference workshop, Behavioral Health at the Intersection of General Health and Human Services, will take place Sunday, October 29.
Confirmed speakers to date include (in alphabetical order):
Jacey Cooper, State Medicaid Director, Chief Deputy Director, California Department of Health Care Services
Kelly Cunningham, Administrator, Division of Medical Programs, Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services
Karen Dale, Chief Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Officer, AmeriHealth Caritas
Peter Lee, Health Care Policy Catalyst and former Executive Director, Covered California
John Lovelace, President, Government Programs, Individual Advantage, UPMC Health Plan
Julie Morita, MD, Executive Vice President, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
Anne Rote, President, Medicaid, Health Care Service Corp.
Drew Snyder, Executive Director, Mississippi Division of Medicaid
Tim Spilker, CEO, UnitedHealthcare Community & State
Stacie Weeks, Administrator/Medicaid Director, Division of Health Care Financing and Policy, Nevada Department of Health and Human Services
Lisa Wright, President and CEO, Community Health Choice
Publicly sponsored programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and the Marketplaces are leading the charge in driving value, equity, and growth in the U.S. healthcare system. This year’s event will highlight the innovations, initiatives, emerging models, and growth strategies designed to drive improved patient outcomes, increased affordability, and expanded access.
Early bird registration ends July 31. Questions may be directed to Carl Mercurio. Group rates, government discounts, and sponsorships are available.
HMA is pleased to welcome new experts to our family of companies in April 2023.
Jed Abell – Consulting Actuary Wakely
Jed Abell is a professional health insurance actuary with over 20 years of experience focusing on Medicare Advantage, Part D, and commercial employer group plans.
Surah Alsawaf – Senior Consultant HMA
Surah Alsawaf is a senior consultant with experience in creating and implementing regulatory strategies and workflows, conducting reviews and audits, and leading cross-functional teams to complete complex deliverables.
Elrycc Berkman – Consulting Actuary Edrington
Elrycc Berkman is experienced in Medicaid managed care rate development including managed long-term services and supports (MLTSS) and program of all-inclusive care for the elderly (PACE) rate development.
Monica Bonds – Associate Principal HMA
Monica Bonds is an experienced managed care professional with over 15 years of experience working in large and diverse organizations.
Yucheng Feng – Senior Consulting Actuary Wakely
Yucheng Feng has over 15 years of experience providing actuarial support for Medicare Advantage clients, including bid preparation, reserve, actuarial analytics and providing strategic recommendations. Read more about Yucheng.
Melanie Hobbs – Associate Principal HMA
Melanie Hobbs is an accomplished healthcare executive, consultant, and thought leader specializing in Medicare, Medicaid, and Special Needs Plans (SNPs).
Daniel Katzman – Consulting Actuary Wakely
Daniel Katzman is experienced in Medicare Advantage bid pricing and modeling as well as claims trend analytics and affordability/cost-savings analysis. Read more about Daniel.
Supriya Laknidhi – Principal HMA
Supriya Laknidhi has over 20 years of experience in the healthcare industry and a proven track record in driving growth and innovation for companies.
Donald Larsen – Principal HMA
Dr. Donald Larsen is a C-suite physician executive with over 30 years of experience spanning complex academic medical centers, community health systems, acute care hospitals, and research institutes.
Ryan McEntee – Senior Consultant Wakely
Ryan McEntee is an experienced managed care executive specializing in strategic leadership within Medicare Advantage plans. Read more about Ryan.
Nicole Oishi – Principal HMA
Nicole Oishi has over 30 years of experience in senior leadership roles as a healthcare clinician and executive.
This week our In Focus section reviews the Illinois Healthcare Transformation 1115 Waiver Extension request, posted for review on May 12, 2023.
In pursuing this waiver extension, Illinois joins a growing list of states taking advantage of new Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) policy flexibilities to address health-related social needs (HRSNs) through Medicaid and test community-driven initiatives that are focused on improving health equity, improving access to care, and promoting whole-person care.
The Illinois waiver incorporates two of the most significant new opportunities in the CMS demonstration waiver flexibilities by proposing to incorporate housing supports for people who are experiencing or at risk of homelessness. The waiver also would extend community reintegration services for justice-involved adults and youths for up to 90 days before their release from incarceration. For a full list of proposed benefits and demonstrations, see Table 1.
Table 1. Summary of Illinois Medicaid 1115 Waiver Extension
The Illinois waiver represents an unprecedented opportunity to demonstrate the long-term, positive impact of providing HRSN services to achieve health equity and create a sustainable, community-driven system for delivering those services. The demonstration proposes to offer a range of HRSN services that are focused on the unmet needs of people who are homeless and housing insecure, are justice-involved, have behavioral health conditions, are pregnant, are unemployed, are food insecure, and/or have been exposed to violence or are at risk of violence with the goal of eliminating health disparities.
The waiver projects a five-year total of $4.4 billion in HRSN services expenditures and another $800 million in HRSN-related infrastructure, indicating Illinois’ long-term commitment to healthcare transformation and to building an equitable, accessible, and high-quality delivery system.
Policy crossroads and the end of the public health emergency due to COVID-19
This is part of a three-part series on significant implications of the end of the Public Health Emergency (PHE).
The end of the Public Health Emergency on May 11, 2023 is likely to mark a transitional point in the rapidly evolving arena of virtual care services and not a dramatic end of coverage. Coverage of virtual care services will continue to evolve significantly over the next five years given the exponential growth in the public’s awareness of, and comfort with, these services — all hastened by the COVID-19 Federal Public Health Emergency.
The U.S. Congress and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) used its authority during the PHE to significantly expand Medicare coverage for virtual care services, covering telehealth visits in urban areas and from patient’s homes. In addition, Medicare began covering a wide range of clinical services virtually such as behavioral health and physical therapy; it also expanded coverage for different service delivery modalities to include audio-only visits. As a result of the changes, Medicare became a leading payer for virtual care nationally between 2020 and 2022. Over this same period, private insurers and state Medicaid programs largely followed Medicare’s lead by expanding their own virtual care coverage.
One of the consequences of the PHE is that most payers have embraced Medicare’s basic definitional structure for types of virtual care services. As a part of this typology, virtual care services are divided into two general buckets of services: telehealth visits (physician office visits conducted via audio and video technology), which are typically prohibited by statute in urban areas or a patient’s home; and Communication Technology-Based Services (CTBS) which can be conducted anywhere. CTBSs include: remote patient monitoring (RPM); virtual check-ins (brief patient-to-clinician exchanges); e-visits (online portal or email visits); and e-consults (clinician to clinician interaction).
With the end of the PHE on May 11, Medicare coverage of virtual care services and coverage offered by other payers will change. The details and scope of this change have many stakeholders concerned and confused. HMA has a keen sense for which virtual care services may get a new lease on life in the coming months and which are likely to be hotly debated in the years ahead. The one certainty is that the last 3 years have altered the landscape for virtual care services for years to come.
Shift in Virtual Care Landscape
As a result of the statutory geographic limitations and restrictions placed on traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare coverage, use of telehealth services was minimal most of the last decade, with only one-quarter of 1 percent (0.25%) of beneficiaries in FFS Medicare using virtual care services.[1] Even among Medicare Advantage plans and Medicare Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs), neither of which which face the same restrictions, virtual care was utilized very rarely before 2019.
This sluggish use of telehealth was radically altered when HHS used its PHE authority to relax constraints on the use of use virtual care services by Medicare beneficiaries and providers.[2],[3] Among the most consequential changes made by policymakers at the outset of the PHE were:
Enabling telehealth services to be provided anywhere (e.g., urban areas and patients’ homes);
Allowing Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHC) and Rural Health Clinics (RHC) to conduct virtual care services;
Granting various types of clinicians permission to deliver virtual care services;
Enabling new patients to receive virtual care services;
Authorizing audio-only services;
Permitting telehealth services for more than 200 different types of clinical services (e.g., mental health, emergency department, physical and occupational therapy, critical care, inpatient care);
Relaxing HIPPA rules to enable the broad use of smartphones for virtual care.
Due to these policy changes, rates of virtual care skyrocketed during the PHE (Figure 1). In April of 2020 the number of Medicare claims for any type of virtual care service exceeded 9 million, while 2019 the number of these services provided monthly never exceeded 100,000 (Figure 1). On an annual basis, from 2019 to 2021 the number of virtual care visits jumped from roughly 1 million to 39 million and the number of unique beneficiaries receiving these services increased from 300,000 to nearly 12 million.
Figure 1: Number of Virtual Care Service Visits, Number of Unique Medicare Fee-For-Service Beneficiaries, and Number of visits per Utilizer by Month, December 2019 to December 2021.
Source: HMA analysis of CMS’s 100 percent Medicare Fee-For-Service Claims data for 2019, 2020, and 2021.
The growth of virtual care services has largely been driven by an increase in telehealth visits, but we observe important trends in the use of CTBSs, as well. In late 2021, more than 90 percent of visits were associated with telehealth, while 10 percent were associated with CTBSs. Early in the PHE, all of these service types experienced an initial, abrupt increase in use (Figure 2). By contrast, the growth in the use of remote patient monitoring (RPM) has been continuous since 2020. The growth in use of RPM reflects the general movement of services into patients’ homes and has been accelerated by specialist such as cardiologists and endocrinologists beginning to leverage the power of RPM. We expect greater diffusion and use of RPM and other CTBSs in the next five years.
Figure 2: Number of Virtual Care Service Visits for Remote Patient Monitoring, Virtual Check-ins, E-visits, and E-Consultations by Month, December 2019 to December 2021.
Source: HMA analysis of CMS’s 100 percent Medicare Fee-For-Service Claims data for 2019, 2020, and 2021.
Policies temporarily in place until the end of 2024
During the PHE, Congress made critical long-term changes to Medicare’s coverage of virtual care services that continued to spur the use of these services and offer access to care for beneficiaries. In 2021, Congress changed the law to permanently allow Medicare beneficiaries to receive behavioral/mental telehealth services regardless of location (urban or rural) and for this care to be available to patients in their own homes.
In 2022, Congress severed the link between the PHE declaration and Medicare coverage policies for virtual care services, extending those benefits through the end of calendar year 2024. We expect that coverage for all telehealth services will receive considerable attention from federal policymakers and stakeholders towards the end of 2024.
Immediate impact of expiring policies
Certain aspects of Medicare’s virtual care policies will, however, terminate May 11, 2023, when the PHE declaration comes to an end. Several of the expiring policies have a broader impact beyond the Medicare program, affecting patients insured by private payers and State Medicaid programs.
Specifically, when the PHE ends, policymakers will need to address the following anticipated changes:
The Office for Civil Rights (OCR) will return to imposing penalties on providers who violate the provisions of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) by using public-facing remote communication technologies which are not HIPAA-compliant. This may prohibit the use of some of the most common smartphone-based video conferencing tools for health care visits.
Medicare beneficiaries without an existing relationship with a clinician will be unable to receive CTBSs such as RPM, virtual check-ins, and e-visits.
Providers will no longer be allowed to provide virtual care services across state lines, because most state medical licensure boards will return to pre-PHE policy.
Federal rules from the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) may revert to the pre-PHE requirement that clinicians establish a patient-provider relationship in-person before being permitted to prescribe controlled substances for substance use disorder treatment.
Potential policy changes occurring before 2025 As explained earlier, Medicare coverage for many virtual care services will remain in place for the next 19 months. Before the end of 2024, Congress will need to address several policy questions, and among the most widely debated are whether to:
Restore Medicare’s statutory prohibition on telehealth services being delivered in urban areas or in home settings;
Allow Federally Qualified Health Centers and Rural Health Clinics to provide telehealth services to Medicare beneficiaries; or
Continue to cover audio-only telehealth visits under Medicare.
Lawmakers will look to payers, patients, and providers for feedback before making these policy decisions. Among the most critical pieces of information they will also consider will be the results of the study Congress has required of HHS regarding trends in the use of virtual care. This study’s final report is due in 2026, which has led some to speculate that Congress will delay action on virtual care coverage policy until then. In the meanwhile, we expect HHS will be assessing the overall volume of virtual care use, who is using which types of services, and the levels of related fraud and abuse.
Looking Ahead
In the United States, our experience during the acute phase of the pandemic demonstrated that patients and providers are more receptive than previously thought to utilizing digital technologies for the delivery of care. This experience may also influence policymakers’ decisions about reimbursement and coverage of wearable devices, as well as other cutting-edge tools that rely on artificial intelligence or machine learning.
HMA believes payers and providers alike can take steps now to strategically prepare for the still evolving and growing landscape of digital health care.
Based on the various changes that have occurred in the virtual care environment over the last 3 years, we are intently watching several areas of potential change in the practice of medicine and the ways payers set coverage policy. Below are some of the trends we anticipate in the years ahead:
Continued use of virtual care services at levels observed in 2021.
An expansion of CMS’s programs to protect against fraud and abuse related to virtual care.
Notable growth in the use of RPM, and related services for physical and occupational therapy services.
The proliferation of innovative home-based screening and testing technologies. We anticipate payers will encourage the use of these at-home tests for things like kidney function, liver function, and colorectal cancer screening in order to limit care delivery in higher cost settings.
Growth in “virtual-first” insurance plans, where patients are encouraged to use virtual care first – prior to being seen in person. As these plan options expand, we anticipate virtual care use will rise, and reimbursement rates will begin to change.
Virtual care services are primed for additional growth and HMA is working with a wide variety of payers, providers, and foundations to develop strategies for adapting to state and federal rules and regulations related to virtual care. Changes in this landscape will hinge on research CMS will complete by the end of 2026, and coverage decisions made by states and commercial payers. HMA is well positioned to assist stakeholders with work in this area and can leverage access to Medicare and Medicaid claims data to conduct health services research to illustrate geographic variations in the use of virtual care.
If you have questions on how HMA can support your agency before or after the end of the PHE, please contact [email protected] or [email protected]
[2] Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Medicare telemedicine health care provider fact sheet. March 17, 2020. https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/medicare-telemedicine-health-care-provider-fact-sheet
[3] HHS Administration for Strategic Preparedness & Response (ASPR). https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/default.aspx
