This week our In Focus section reviews the Florida Statewide Medicaid Managed Care Program (SMMC) Invitation to Negotiate (ITN), released on April 11, 2023, by the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA). SMMC consists of three programs: Managed Medical Assistance (MMA), Long-term Care (LTC), and dental, covering 4.4 million individuals. This ITN is for contracts to provide MMA and LTC.
Under the SMMC program, all enrollees receive their services from a single plan providing managed medical assistance, long-term care, and specialty benefits. (Dental benefits are provided separately.)
AHCA will select plans that will achieve the agency’s goals, including providing healthy birth outcomes for mothers and their infants, improving childhood and adolescent mental health, maximizing home and community-based placement and services, and supporting the HOPE Florida program. HOPE Florida utilizes ‘Hope Navigators’ to help individuals achieve economic self-sufficiency, develop long term-goals, and map out a strategic plan by focusing on community collaboration between the private sector, faith-based community, nonprofits and government entities.
Additionally, with the new contracts, AHCA will implement the following changes:
Specialty plans will no longer be awarded separately but must be awarded to a comprehensive or MMA plan.
Enrolling voluntary recipients (such as individuals with intellectual or developmental disabilities) into the SMMC program and providing the opportunity for them to opt out
AHCA may mandatorily enroll into the MMA program full benefit dual-eligibles who are also in a Medicare Dual Eligible Special Needs Plan (DSNP).
AHCA will invite 10 plans to negotiate for awards as shown below:
Timeline
Proposals are due August 15, 2023, with an anticipated award date of December 11. Contract will run from October 1, 2024, through December 31, 2030. Contracts may not be renewed, but AHCA may extend the term to cover any delays during the transition to a new plan.
Evaluation
Plans can receive a total maximum number of points of 5,950. AHCA will invite top-ranking plans to negotiations to ensure that AHCA can enter into contracts with the minimum required number of plans per region.
Current Market
As of December 2022, Florida served 4.3 million MMA and LTC enrollees, excluding an additional 97,000 Children’s Medical Services enrollees in the Children’s Medical Services Network plan. Centene had the highest market share based on enrollment, at over 40 percent.
This week, our In Focus section reviews recent Medicaid enrollment trends in capitated, risk-based managed care in 32 states.[1] Many state Medicaid agencies post monthly enrollment figures by health plan for their Medicaid managed care population to their websites. This data allows for the timeliest analysis of enrollment trends across states and managed care organizations. All 32 states highlighted in this review have released monthly Medicaid managed care enrollment data into the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022. This report reflects the most recent data posted. HMA will continue tracking enrollment throughout the eligibility redetermination period. HMA has made the following observations related to the enrollment data shown on Table 1 (below):
The 32 states in this report account for an estimated 71 million Medicaid managed care enrollees as of December 2022. Based on HMA estimates of MCO enrollment in states not covered in this report, we believe that nationwide Medicaid MCO enrollment was likely about 75 million in December 2022. As such, the enrollment data across these 32 states represents approximately 95 percent of all Medicaid MCO enrollment.
Across the 32 states tracked in this report, Medicaid managed care enrollment is up 7.5 percent year-over-year as of December 2022.
All states, besides Mississippi, saw increases in enrollment in December 2022, compared to the previous year, due to the gains from the COVID-19 pandemic. Mississippi Medicaid managed care enrollment fell because the state shifted members to FFS during the public health emergency.
Twenty-three of the 32 states – Arizona, California, District of Columbia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia – expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act and have seen increased Medicaid managed care enrollment since expansion.
The 23 expansion states listed above have seen net Medicaid managed care enrollment increase by 3.5 million members, or 7.2 percent, in the past year, to 52.2 million members at the end of 2022.
The nine states that have not yet expanded Medicaid as of December 2022 – Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin – have seen Medicaid managed care enrollment increase 8.3 percent to 19 million members at the end of 2022.
Table 1 – Monthly MCO Enrollment by State – July 2022 through December 2022
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Arizona
2,069,048
2,079,360
2,095,101
2,106,800
2,116,444
2,127,666
+/- m/m
8,527
10,312
15,741
11,699
9,644
11,222
% y/y
7.6%
0.0%
7.5%
7.4%
7.2%
7.1%
California
12,929,500
13,013,324
13,073,427
13,132,616
13,231,993
13,204,398
+/- m/m
215,506
83,824
60,103
59,189
99,377
(27,595)
% y/y
9.8%
9.9%
9.9%
9.9%
10.2%
9.5%
D.C.
246,957
247,704
248,577
249,617
250,676
+/- m/m
3,223
747
873
1,040
1,059
N/A
% y/y
6.7%
6.7%
6.5%
6.5%
6.4%
Florida
4,385,965
4,432,233
4,465,670
4,502,297
4,537,121
4,581,266
+/- m/m
41,441
46,268
33,437
36,627
34,824
44,145
% y/y
10.9%
10.9%
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
11.0%
Georgia
1,975,277
1,988,727
2,016,462
2,027,275
2,035,673
+/- m/m
13,117
13,450
N/A
N/A
10,813
8,398
% y/y
9.8%
9.5%
9.0%
8.7%
8.3%
Illinois
2,890,332
2,884,029
2,900,232
2,929,584
2,965,007
3,000,717
+/- m/m
(8,672)
(6,303)
16,203
29,352
35,423
35,710
% y/y
5.1%
4.5%
4.1%
4.4%
5.1%
5.5%
Indiana
1,742,762
1,761,692
1,769,400
1,781,464
1,797,451
1,813,044
+/- m/m
6,906
18,930
7,708
12,064
15,987
15,593
% y/y
11.6%
11.3%
11.0%
10.5%
10.2%
10.3%
Iowa
795,534
799,748
807,296
812,481
814,490
+/- m/m
2,642
4,214
7,548
N/A
N/A
2,009
% y/y
5.9%
5.8%
6.4%
6.0%
6.1%
Kansas
489,309
490,911
492,640
497,257
499,143
500,814
+/- m/m
2,691
1,602
1,729
4,617
1,886
1,671
% y/y
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8.3%
6.3%
Kentucky
1,494,068
1,487,387
1,509,274
1,518,906
1,528,484
1,534,657
+/- m/m
6,069
(6,681)
21,887
9,632
9,578
6,173
% y/y
5.5%
5.3%
5.6%
5.8%
6.7%
6.1%
Louisiana
1,821,644
1,828,015
1,833,457
1,841,693
1,858,092
1,860,170
+/- m/m
7,213
6,371
5,442
8,236
16,399
2,078
% y/y
4.6%
4.5%
4.4%
4.7%
5.2%
5.8%
Maryland
1,496,677
1,502,271
1,508,469
1,514,381
1,521,171
1,529,308
+/- m/m
8,205
5,594
6,198
5,912
6,790
8,137
% y/y
6.5%
6.2%
6.1%
5.8%
5.8%
5.7%
Michigan
2,280,243
2,294,432
2,299,913
2,309,913
2,319,951
2,324,046
+/- m/m
2,923
14,189
5,481
10,000
10,038
4,095
% y/y
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.7%
4.5%
4.3%
Minnesota
1,261,112
1,262,073
1,278,954
1,286,890
1,293,858
1,299,194
+/- m/m
1,893
961
16,881
7,936
6,968
5,336
% y/y
7.3%
6.7%
7.4%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
Mississippi
367,137
363,387
364,612
355,694
367,902
396,880
+/- m/m
(452)
(3,750)
1,225
(8,918)
12,208
28,978
% y/y
-22.7%
-19.9%
-17.4%
-17.3%
-12.5%
-3.9%
Missouri
1,038,239
1,065,217
1,099,707
1,118,373
1,136,589
1,157,005
+/- m/m
26,520
26,978
34,490
18,666
18,216
20,416
% y/y
27.0%
29.1%
32.6%
31.7%
31.8%
29.0%
Nebraska
363,328
366,202
369,770
372,613
374,857
378,237
+/- m/m
2,740
2,874
3,568
2,843
2,244
3,380
% y/y
12.4%
11.9%
11.7%
11.2%
10.8%
10.6%
Nevada
687,362
689,139
697,752
675,465
685,736
692,890
+/- m/m
9,464
1,777
8,613
(22,287)
10,271
7,154
% y/y
9.3%
9.0%
9.3%
4.2%
5.2%
5.7%
New Jersey
2,100,947
2,113,930
2,125,181
2,130,868
2,144,514
2,158,966
+/- m/m
10,897
12,983
11,251
5,687
13,646
14,452
% y/y
7.4%
7.4%
7.2%
7.0%
7.1%
7.0%
New Mexico
809,991
811,732
812,995
813,630
814,466
815,798
+/- m/m
2,491
1,741
1,263
635
836
1,332
% y/y
4.2%
3.7%
3.4%
3.0%
2.6%
2.3%
New York
5,855,615
5,853,108
5,878,519
5,906,264
5,929,288
5,961,782
+/- m/m
39,970
(2,507)
25,411
27,745
23,024
32,494
% y/y
4.5%
4.3%
4.2%
4.3%
4.5%
4.6%
North Carolina
1,738,545
1,746,948
1,757,503
1,768,974
1,778,199
1,837,423
+/- m/m
9,047
8,403
10,555
11,471
9,225
59,224
% y/y
8.0%
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.6%
9.5%
Ohio
2,964,731
2,963,616
2,960,922
2,958,666
2,961,983
2,973,763
+/- m/m
(1,340)
(1,115)
(2,694)
(2,256)
3,317
11,780
% y/y
3.4%
2.6%
1.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.9%
Oregon
1,193,358
1,202,198
1,206,520
1,211,099
1,221,435
1,228,054
+/- m/m
3,920
8,840
4,322
4,579
10,336
6,619
% y/y
8.3%
8.4%
7.7%
7.6%
7.4%
7.2%
Pennsylvania
2,895,837
2,909,985
2,920,584
2,937,049
2,950,613
2,966,207
+/- m/m
13,973
14,148
10,599
16,465
13,564
15,594
% y/y
7.4%
7.3%
6.9%
6.8%
6.6%
6.5%
South Carolina
1,055,785
1,063,445
1,069,569
1,078,094
1,084,529
1,089,577
+/- m/m
5,226
7,660
6,124
8,525
6,435
5,048
% y/y
7.6%
7.5%
7.4%
7.9%
7.6%
7.5%
Tennessee
1,692,395
1,704,398
1,710,125
1,718,539
1,726,603
1,734,108
+/- m/m
6,737
12,003
5,727
8,414
8,064
7,505
% y/y
6.0%
6.1%
6.1%
6.0%
5.9%
5.8%
Texas
5,466,045
5,653,169
+/- m/m
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
% y/y
8.6%
10.6%
Virginia
1,572,923
1,582,973
1,589,722
1,598,875
1,608,840
1,619,311
+/- m/m
11,829
10,050
6,749
9,153
9,965
10,471
% y/y
11.3%
11.0%
10.0%
9.6%
10.1%
9.8%
Washington
1,884,734
1,898,983
1,904,127
1,913,230
1,927,690
1,959,278
+/- m/m
8,867
14,249
5,144
9,103
14,460
31,588
% y/y
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
5.8%
5.9%
6.0%
7.2%
West Virginia
519,992
524,042
524,922
527,226
530,494
533,194
+/- m/m
2,871
4,050
880
2,304
3,268
2,700
% y/y
6.5%
6.8%
6.4%
5.9%
5.9%
5.7%
Wisconsin
1,161,202
1,166,208
1,172,719
1,179,204
1,184,899
1,190,673
+/- m/m
5,263
5,006
6,511
6,485
5,695
5,774
% y/y
7.5%
7.2%
7.1%
7.1%
6.9%
6.6%
Note: In Table 1 above and the state tables below, “+/- m/m” refers to the enrollment change from the previous month. “% y/y” refers to the percentage change in enrollment from the same month in the previous year.
Below, we provide a state-specific analysis of recent enrollment trends in the states where HMA tracks data.
It is important to note the limitations of the data presented. First, not all states report the data at the same time during the month. Some of these figures reflect beginning-of-the-month totals, while others reflect an end-of-the-month snapshot. Second, in some cases the data is comprehensive in that it covers all state-sponsored health programs for which the state offers managed care; in other cases, the data reflects only a subset of the broader Medicaid managed care population. This is the key limiting factor in comparing the data described below and figures reported by publicly traded Medicaid MCOs. Consequently, the data we review in Table 1 and throughout the In Focus section should be viewed as a sampling of enrollment trends across these states rather than a comprehensive comparison, which cannot be developed based on publicly available monthly enrollment data.
State-Specific Analysis
Arizona
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
Enrollment in Arizona’s two Medicaid managed care programs grew to 2.1 million in December 2022, up 7.1 percent from December 2021.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Acute Care
2,002,584
2,012,802
2,028,335
2,039,880
2,049,311
2,060,376
ALTCS
66,464
66,558
66,766
66,920
67,133
67,290
Total Arizona
2,069,048
2,079,360
2,095,101
2,106,800
2,116,444
2,127,666
+/- m/m
8,527
10,312
15,741
11,699
9,644
11,222
% y/y
7.6%
7.5%
7.4%
7.2%
7.1%
California
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
Medi-Cal managed care enrollment was up 9.5 percent year-over-year to 13.2 million, as of December 2022.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Two-Plan Counties
8,356,137
8,409,817
8,446,514
8,481,885
8,548,096
8,588,418
Imperial/San Benito
100,384
101,117
101,633
102,064
102,881
103,437
Regional Model
364,066
366,437
368,624
370,361
373,402
375,473
GMC Counties
1,435,250
1,445,532
1,452,127
1,458,149
1,470,122
1,391,421
COHS Counties
2,561,831
2,578,747
2,593,003
2,608,731
2,625,795
2,634,112
Duals Demonstration
111,832
111,674
111,526
111,426
111,697
111,537
Total California
12,929,500
13,013,324
13,073,427
13,132,616
13,231,993
13,204,398
+/- m/m
215,506
83,824
60,103
59,189
99,377
(27,595)
% y/y
9.8%
9.9%
9.9%
9.9%
10.2%
9.5%
District of Columbia
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
Medicaid managed care enrollment in the District of Columbia was up 6.4 percent to almost 251,000 in November 2022.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Total District of Columbia
246,957
247,704
248,577
249,617
250,676
+/- m/m
3,223
747
873
1,040
1,059
% y/y
6.7%
6.7%
6.5%
6.5%
6.4%
Florida
Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded
Florida’s statewide Medicaid managed care program had seen an 11 percent rise in total covered lives over the last year to nearly 4.6 million beneficiaries as of December 2022. (Note that the managed LTC enrollment figures listed below are a subset of the Managed Medical Assistance (MMA) enrollments and are included in the MMA number; they are not separately added to the total to avoid double counting).
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
MMA
3,908,539
3,948,929
3,978,098
4,010,534
4,041,816
4,080,381
LTC (Subset of MMA)
124,107
124,691
125,397
126,144
126,720
126,621
SMMC Specialty Plan
332,179
338,057
342,325
346,516
350,058
355,638
FL Healthy Kids
145,247
145,247
145,247
145,247
145,247
145,247
Total Florida
4,385,965
4,432,233
4,465,670
4,502,297
4,537,121
4,581,266
+/- m/m
41,441
46,268
33,437
36,627
34,824
44,145
% y/y
10.9%
10.9%
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
11.0%
Georgia
Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded
As of December 2022, Georgia’s Medicaid managed care program covered more than 2 million members, up 8.3 percent from the previous year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Georgia
1,975,277
1,988,727
2,016,462
2,027,275
2,035,673
+/- m/m
13,117
13,450
10,813
8,398
% y/y
9.8%
9.5%
9.0%
8.7%
8.3%
Illinois
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
Illinois enrollment across the state’s managed care programs was up 5.5 percent to 3 million as of December 2022.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
HealthChoice
2,800,420
2,793,124
2,809,689
2,839,342
2,874,700
2,909,303
Duals Demonstration
89,912
90,905
90,543
90,242
90,307
91,414
Total Illinois
2,890,332
2,884,029
2,900,232
2,929,584
2,965,007
3,000,717
+/- m/m
(8,672)
(6,303)
16,203
29,352
35,423
35,710
% y/y
5.1%
4.5%
4.1%
4.4%
5.1%
5.5%
Indiana
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded in 2015 through HIP 2.0
As of December 2022, enrollment in Indiana’s managed care programs—Hoosier Healthwise, Hoosier Care Connect, and Healthy Indiana Program (HIP)—was more than 1.8 million, up 10.3 percent from the previous year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Hoosier Healthwise
845,910
852,904
857,952
863,973
869,613
876,606
Hoosier Care Connect
102,805
102,819
102,537
102,253
102,200
102,150
HIP
794,047
805,969
808,911
815,238
825,638
834,288
Indiana Total
1,742,762
1,761,692
1,769,400
1,781,464
1,797,451
1,813,044
+/- m/m
6,906
18,930
7,708
12,064
15,987
15,593
% y/y
11.6%
11.3%
11.0%
10.5%
10.2%
10.3%
Iowa
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
Iowa launched its statewide Medicaid managed care program in April of 2016. Enrollment across all populations was nearly 814,500, as of December 2022. Enrollment was up 6.1 percent from the previous year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Traditional Medicaid
507,266
510,618
516,556
520,234
521,118
Iowa Wellness Plan
237,910
239,261
242,555
244,724
246,385
hawk-i
50,358
49,869
48,185
47,523
46,987
Total Iowa
795,534
799,748
807,296
812,481
814,490
+/- m/m
2,642
4,214
7,548
2,009
% y/y
5.9%
5.8%
6.4%
6.0%
6.1%
Kansas
Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded
Kansas Medicaid managed care enrollment was nearly 501,000 as of December 2022, up 6.3 percent from the previous year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Kansas
489,309
490,911
492,640
497,257
499,143
500,814
+/- m/m
2,691
1,602
1,729
4,617
1,886
1,671
% y/y
8.3%
6.3%
Kentucky
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
As of December 2022, Kentucky covered more than 1.5 million beneficiaries in risk-based managed care. Total enrollment was up 6.1 percent from the prior year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Kentucky
1,494,068
1,487,387
1,509,274
1,518,906
1,528,484
1,534,657
+/- m/m
6,069
(6,681)
21,887
9,632
9,578
6,173
% y/y
5.5%
5.3%
5.6%
5.8%
6.7%
6.1%
Louisiana
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded July 1, 2016
Medicaid managed care enrollment in Louisiana was more than 1.86 million as of December 2022, up 5.8 percent from the previous year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Louisiana
1,821,644
1,828,015
1,833,457
1,841,693
1,858,092
1,860,170
+/- m/m
7,213
6,371
5,442
8,236
16,399
2,078
% y/y
4.6%
4.5%
4.4%
4.7%
5.2%
5.8%
Maryland
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
Maryland’s Medicaid managed care program covered more than 1.5 million lives as of December 2022.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Maryland
1,496,677
1,502,271
1,508,469
1,514,381
1,521,171
1,529,308
+/- m/m
8,205
5,594
6,198
5,912
6,790
8,137
% y/y
6.5%
6.2%
6.1%
5.8%
5.8%
5.7%
Michigan
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded April 1, 2014
As of December 2022, Michigan’s Medicaid managed care was up 4.3 percent to 2.3 million.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Medicaid
2,239,937
2,251,810
2,256,800
2,265,219
2,274,763
2,279,473
MI Health Link (Duals)
40,306
42,622
43,113
44,694
45,188
44,573
Total Michigan
2,280,243
2,294,432
2,299,913
2,309,913
2,319,951
2,324,046
+/- m/m
2,923
14,189
5,481
10,000
10,038
4,095
% y/y
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.7%
4.5%
4.3%
Minnesota
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
As of December 2022, enrollment across Minnesota’s multiple managed Medicaid programs was nearly 1.3 million, up 7.5 percent from the prior year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Parents/Kids
748,197
748,513
758,100
763,044
767,798
770,918
Expansion Adults
272,666
273,387
278,421
281,284
284,073
288,680
Senior Care Plus
24,190
24,252
25,344
25,914
26,415
26,740
Senior Health Options
43,429
43,686
43,920
44,162
44,248
44,324
Special Needs BasicCare
64,656
64,484
65,562
65,763
65,987
66,171
Moving Home Minnesota
11
11
10
10
9
11
Minnesota Care
107,963
107,740
107,597
106,713
105,328
102,350
Total Minnesota
1,261,112
1,262,073
1,278,954
1,286,890
1,293,858
1,299,194
+/- m/m
1,893
961
16,881
7,936
6,968
5,336
% y/y
7.3%
6.7%
7.4%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
Mississippi
Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded
MississippiCAN, the state’s Medicaid managed care program, had membership down 3.9 percent to nearly 397,000 as of December 2022.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Mississippi
367,137
363,387
364,612
355,694
367,902
396,880
+/- m/m
(452)
(3,750)
1,225
(8,918)
12,208
28,978
% y/y
-22.7%
-19.9%
-17.4%
-17.3%
-12.5%
-3.9%
Missouri
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expansion Enrollment began in October 2021
Missouri managed care enrollment in the Medicaid and CHIP programs was nearly 1.2 million in December 2022.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Medicaid
758,928
757,312
769,419
775,076
782,863
787,611
Total CHIP
28,949
28,937
29,026
29,121
29,231
29,402
Total AEG
199,963
228,361
250,131
262,612
272,574
287,692
Total SHK
50,399
50,607
51,131
51,564
51,921
52,300
Total Missouri
1,038,239
1,065,217
1,099,707
1,118,373
1,136,589
1,157,005
+/- m/m
26,520
26,978
34,490
18,666
18,216
20,416
% y/y
27.0%
29.1%
32.6%
31.7%
31.8%
29.0%
Nebraska
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded October 1, 2020
As of December 2022, Nebraska’s Medicaid managed care program enrolled 378,000 members, up 10.6 percent from the previous year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Nebraska
363,328
366,202
369,770
372,613
374,857
378,237
+/- m/m
2,740
2,874
3,568
2,843
2,244
3,380
% y/y
12.4%
11.9%
11.7%
11.2%
10.8%
10.6%
Nevada
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
Nevada’s Medicaid managed care enrollment was up 5.7 percent to nearly 693,000 as of December 2022.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Nevada
687,362
689,139
697,752
675,465
685,736
692,890
+/- m/m
9,464
1,777
8,613
(22,287)
10,271
7,154
% y/y
9.3%
9.0%
9.3%
4.2%
5.2%
5.7%
New Jersey
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
As of December 2022, New Jersey Medicaid managed care enrollment was up 7 percent to nearly 2.2 million.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total New Jersey
2,100,947
2,113,930
2,125,181
2,130,868
2,144,514
2,158,966
+/- m/m
10,897
12,983
11,251
5,687
13,646
14,452
% y/y
7.4%
7.4%
7.2%
7.0%
7.1%
7.0%
New Mexico
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
As of December 2022, New Mexico’s Centennial Care program covered nearly 816,000 members, up 2.3 percent from the previous year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total New Mexico
809,991
811,732
812,995
813,630
814,466
815,798
+/- m/m
2,491
1,741
1,263
635
836
1,332
% y/y
4.2%
3.7%
3.4%
3.0%
2.6%
2.3%
New York
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
New York’s Medicaid managed care programs collectively covered nearly 6 million beneficiaries as of December 2022, a 4.6 percent increase from the previous year. The Medicaid Advantage program ended in December 2021.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Mainstream MCOs
5,399,089
5,395,489
5,418,915
5,446,409
5,467,467
5,494,358
Managed LTC
255,999
256,538
258,236
257,360
260,087
264,965
Medicaid Advantage
0
0
0
0
0
0
Medicaid Advantage Plus
34,357
34,355
34,689
34,764
34,717
35,061
HARP
164,514
165,067
165,024
166,063
165,340
165,713
FIDA-IDD (Duals)
1,656
1,659
1,655
1,668
1,677
1,685
Total New York
5,855,615
5,853,108
5,878,519
5,906,264
5,929,288
5,961,782
+/- m/m
39,970
(2,507)
25,411
27,745
23,024
32,494
% y/y
4.5%
4.3%
4.2%
4.3%
4.5%
4.6%
North Carolina
Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded
As of December 2022, enrollment in North Carolina’s Medicaid managed care program was 1.8 million, up 9.5 percent from the prior year. North Carolina implemented Medicaid managed care on July 1, 2021.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total North Carolina
1,738,545
1,746,948
1,757,503
1,768,974
1,778,199
1,837,423
+/- m/m
9,047
8,403
10,555
11,471
9,225
59,224
% y/y
8.0%
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.6%
9.5%
Ohio
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
As of December 2022, enrollment across all four Ohio Medicaid managed care programs was nearly 3 million, up 0.9 percent from the prior year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
CFC Program
1,800,781
1,800,038
1,798,135
1,796,327
1,798,873
1,804,860
ABD/Duals
348,071
348,176
347,461
347,371
347,473
347,839
Group 8 (Expansion)
815,879
815,402
815,326
814,968
815,637
821,064
Total Ohio
2,964,731
2,963,616
2,960,922
2,958,666
2,961,983
2,973,763
+/- m/m
(1,340)
(1,115)
(2,694)
(2,256)
3,317
11,780
% y/y
3.4%
2.6%
1.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.9%
Oregon
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
As of December 2022, enrollment in the Oregon Coordinated Care Organization (CCO) Medicaid managed care program was more than 1.2 million, up 7.2 percent from the previous year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Oregon
1,193,358
1,202,198
1,206,520
1,211,099
1,221,435
1,228,054
+/- m/m
3,920
8,840
4,322
4,579
10,336
6,619
% y/y
8.3%
8.4%
7.7%
7.6%
7.4%
7.2%
Pennsylvania
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2015
As of December 2022, Pennsylvania’s Medicaid managed care enrollment was nearly 3 million, up 6.5 percent in the past year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Pennsylvania
2,895,837
2,909,985
2,920,584
2,937,049
2,950,613
2,966,207
+/- m/m
13,973
14,148
10,599
16,465
13,564
15,594
% y/y
7.4%
7.3%
6.9%
6.8%
6.6%
6.5%
South Carolina
Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded
South Carolina’s Medicaid managed care programs collectively enrolled nearly 1.1 million members as of December 2022, which represents an increase of 7.5 percent in the past year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Medicaid
1,041,909
1,049,706
1,056,026
1,064,548
1,071,016
1,076,146
Total Duals Demo
13,876
13,739
13,543
13,546
13,513
13,431
Total South Carolina
1,055,785
1,063,445
1,069,569
1,078,094
1,084,529
1,089,577
+/- m/m
5,226
7,660
6,124
8,525
6,435
5,048
% y/y
7.6%
7.5%
7.4%
7.9%
7.6%
7.5%
Tennessee
Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded
As of December 2022, TennCare managed care enrollment totaled 1.7 million, up 5.8 percent from the prior year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Tennessee
1,692,395
1,704,398
1,710,125
1,718,539
1,726,603
1,734,108
+/- m/m
6,737
12,003
5,727
8,414
8,064
7,505
% y/y
6.0%
6.1%
6.1%
6.0%
5.9%
5.8%
Texas
Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded
Texas’ state fiscal year begins in September and program-specific enrollment is only reported at the end of each state fiscal quarter. As of November 2022, Texas Medicaid managed care enrollment was nearly 5.7 million across the state’s six managed care programs, up 10.6 percent from the previous year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
STAR
4,559,293
4,748,820
STAR+PLUS
559,746
568,456
STAR HEALTH
45,760
46,228
Duals Demo
34,336
33,673
CHIP
97,153
85,773
STAR KIDS
169,757
170,219
Total Texas
5,466,045
5,653,169
+/- m/m
% y/y
8.6%
10.6%
Virginia
Medicaid Expansion Status: January 1, 2019
Virginia Medicaid managed care enrollment was up 9.8 percent in December 2022 to 1.6 million members.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Virginia
1,572,923
1,582,973
1,589,722
1,598,875
1,608,840
1,619,311
+/- m/m
11,829
10,050
6,749
9,153
9,965
10,471
% y/y
11.3%
11.0%
10.0%
9.6%
10.1%
9.8%
Washington
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
Washington’s Medicaid managed care enrollment increased 7.2 percent to nearly 2 million as of December 2022, compared to the previous year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total Washington
1,884,734
1,898,983
1,904,127
1,913,230
1,927,690
1,959,278
+/- m/m
8,867
14,249
5,144
9,103
14,460
31,588
% y/y
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
5.8%
5.9%
6.0%
7.2%
West Virginia
Medicaid Expansion Status: Expanded January 1, 2014
As of December 2022, West Virginia’s Medicaid managed care program covered 533,000 members, up 5.7 percent year-over-year.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Total West Virginia
519,992
524,042
524,922
527,226
530,494
533,194
+/- m/m
2,871
4,050
880
2,304
3,268
2,700
% y/y
6.5%
6.8%
6.4%
5.9%
5.9%
5.7%
Wisconsin
Medicaid Expansion Status: Not Expanded
Across Wisconsin’s three Medicaid managed care programs, December 2022 enrollment totaled nearly 1.2 million, up 6.6 percent from the year before.
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
BadgerCare+
1,042,456
1,047,217
1,053,361
1,059,587
1,065,182
1,070,788
SSI
61,841
61,916
62,065
62,129
62,165
62,293
LTC
56,905
57,075
57,293
57,488
57,552
57,592
Total Wisconsin
1,161,202
1,166,208
1,172,719
1,179,204
1,184,899
1,190,673
+/- m/m
5,263
5,006
6,511
6,485
5,695
5,774
% y/y
7.5%
7.2%
7.1%
7.1%
6.9%
6.6%
More Information Available from HMA Information Services
More detailed information on the Medicaid managed care landscape is available from HMA Information Services (HMAIS), which collects Medicaid enrollment data, health plan financials, and the latest on expansions, waivers, duals, ABD populations, long-term care, accountable care organizations, and patient-centered medical homes. HMAIS also includes a public documents library with copies of Medicaid RFPs, responses, model contracts, and scoring sheets.
HMAIS enhances this publicly available information with an overview of the structure of Medicaid in each state, as well as proprietary Medicaid Managed Care RFP calendars.
[1] Arizona, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin.
Join us on Monday, March 6, 2023, at the Fairmont Chicago, Millennium Park, for “Healthcare Quality Conference: A Deep Dive on What’s Next for Providers, Payers, and Policymakers,” where Lee Fleisher, MD, chief medical officer and director of CMS’ Center for Clinical Standards and Quality, will deliver the keynote titled A Vision for Healthcare Quality: How Policy Can Drive Improved Outcomes.
HMA’s first annual quality conference will provide organizations the opportunity to “Focus on Quality to Improve Patients’ Lives.” Attendees will hear from industry leaders and policy makers about evolving health care quality initiatives and participate in substantive workshops where they will learn about and discuss solutions that are using quality frameworks to create a more equitable health system.
In addition to Fleisher, featured speakers will executives from ANCOR, CareOregon, Commonwealth Care Alliance, Council on Quality and Leadership, Intermountain Healthcare, NCQA, Reema Health, Kaiser Permanente, United Hospital Fund, and others.
Working sessions will provide expert-led discussions about how quality is driving federal and state policy, behavioral health integration, approaches to improving equity and measuring the social determinants of health, integration of disability support services, stronger Medicaid core measures, strategies for Medicare Star Ratings, value-based payments, and digital measures and measurement tools. Speakers will provide case studies and innovative approaches to ensuring quality efforts result in lasting improvements in health outcomes.
“What’s different about this conference is that participants will engage in working sessions that provide healthcare executives tools and models for directly impacting quality at their organizations,” said Carl Mercurio, Principal and Publisher, HMA Information Services.
View the Full Agenda
Early Bird registration ends January 30. Visit the conference website for complete details. Group rates and sponsorships are available.
This week, our In Focus section reviews the State of Texas Access Reform (STAR), Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and Healthy Texas Women (HTW) Medicaid managed care request for proposals (RFP) released by the Texas Health and Human Services Commission (HHSC) on December 7, 2022. Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs) will serve over 4.6 million members. Prior STAR & CHIP program contracts were valued at roughly $9.7 billion annually, with new contracts to be worth more.
Background
Texas is currently in the process of rebidding all of its Medicaid managed care programs. A former STAR & CHIP RFP was cancelled in March 2020.
STAR is Texas’ traditional Medicaid program. Under the STAR program, MCOs will provide preventive, primary, acute care, behavioral health (including mental health and substance-use disorder counseling and treatment), Non-Emergency Medical Transportation (NEMT), and pharmacy services to eligible pregnant women, newborns, children, and parents with limited income.
CHIP is the state-federal jointly funded program covering children whose families who earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but cannot afford private insurance. In Texas, CHIP contracts also include the CHIP Perinatal Program covering pregnant women who are ineligible for Medicaid due to income or immigration status to receive prenatal care for their unborn children. Once born, newborns receive 12 months of continuous coverage.
The HTW program provides family planning services, family planning-related services, and other preconception women’s health services. The HTW program was originally a fee-for-service program until the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) approved a Section 1115 waiver demonstration in January 2020. Texas is currently waiting on CMS approval for a waiver amendment to also add HTW Plus, an enhanced postpartum benefits package, into Medicaid managed care.
RFP
HHSC intends to award at least three contracts for each service area (SA). The maximum number of MCOs that will be awarded in the new procurement for each SA is shown below.
As of August 2022, STAR enrollment was 4.56 million and CHIP enrollment was over 97,000.
Timeline
A preproposal conference will be held on December 21, 2022. While optional, the conference is recommended and will include training on the completion of the Historically Underutilized Business (HUB) Subcontracting Plan. Proposals will be due February 17, 2023, with awards anticipated in February 2024. Implementation is expected February 2025. Contracts will run for six years, with three two-year renewal options, not to exceed a total contract term of 12 years.
Evaluation
MCOs will be scored out of 2,000 points as shown below. HHSC will recommend contract awards in SAs based on MCOs’ final weighted scores and will take consideration of MCOs’ ranking of SAs by preference.
Each MCO can be awarded contracts in up to seven SAs. However, HHSC may choose to award more per MCO if the SA has not reached a maximum number of MCOs.
The holiday season is grounded in gratitude. At HMA, we are grateful for successful partnerships that have fueled change to improve lives.
We are proud to be trusted advisors to our clients and partners. Their success is our success. In 2022 our clients and partners made significant strides tackling the biggest healthcare challenges, seizing opportunities for growth and innovation, and shaping the healthcare landscape in a way that improves the health and wellness of individuals and communities.
HMA partnered with the Colorado Department of Human Services to support the planning and implementation of a new Behavioral Health Administration (BHA). HMA provided technical research and extensive stakeholder engagement, drafted models for forming and implementing the BHA, employed an extensive change management approach, and created a detailed implementation plan with ongoing support. Today the BHA is a cabinet member-led agency that collaborates across agencies and sectors to drive a comprehensive and coordinated strategic approach to behavioral health.
Wakely Consulting Group, an HMA Company, was engaged to support the launch of a Medicare Advantage (MA) joint venture partnership between a health plan and a provider system. Wakely was responsible for preparing and certifying MA and Medicare Part D (PD) bids, a highly complex, exacting, and iterative effort. The Wakely team quickly became a trusted advisor and go-to resource for the joint venture decision makers. The joint venture has driven significant market growth over its initial years, fueled by a competitive benefit package determined by the client product team.
In 2021 Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb appointed a 15-member commission to assess Indiana’s public health system and make recommendations for improvements. The Indiana Department of Health (IDOH) engaged HMA to provide extensive project management and support for six workstreams. HMA prepared a draft report summarizing public input as well as research findings and recommendations. The commission’s final report will form the basis of proposed 2023 legislation, including proposals to substantially increase public health service and funding across the state.
In early 2022 HMA and Wakely Consulting Group, an HMA Company, assisted multiple clients with their applications to participate in the new CMS ACO REACH model. The purpose of this model is to improve quality of care for Medicare beneficiaries through better care coordination and increased engagement between providers and patients including those who are underserved. The team tailored their support depending on each client’s needs. The application selection process was highly competitive. Of the 271 applications received, CMS accepted just under 50 percent. Notably, nine out of the 10 organizations HMA and Wakely supported were accepted into the model.
HMA, and subsidiaries The Moran Company and Leavitt Partners, were selected by a large pharmaceutical manufacturer to analyze the current pipeline of innovative therapies, examine reimbursement policies to assess long-term compatibility with the adoption of innovative therapies and novel delivery mechanisms, and make policy recommendations to address any challenges identified through the process. The project equipped the client with a holistic understanding of future potential impacts and actions to address challenges in a detailed pipeline analysis of innovative therapies.
This week, our In Focus reviews the Oklahoma Medicaid managed care SoonerSelect Program request for proposals (RFP) and the SoonerSelect Children’s Specialty Program RFP released by the Oklahoma Health Care Authority (OHCA) on November 10, 2022.
Background
Oklahoma currently does not have a fully capitated, risk-based Medicaid managed care program. The majority of the state’s 1.3 million Medicaid members are in SoonerCare Choice, a Primary Care Case Management (PCCM) program in which each member has a medical home. Other programs include SoonerCare Traditional (Medicaid fee-for-service), SoonerPlan (a limited benefit family planning program), and Insure Oklahoma (a premium assistance program for low-income people whose employers offer health insurance).
Prior efforts to transition to Medicaid managed care have encountered roadblocks, starting in 2017 with a failed attempt to move aged, blind, and disabled members to managed care.
More recently, in June 2021, the Oklahoma Supreme Court struck down a planned transition of the state’s traditional Medicaid program to managed care, ruling that the Oklahoma Health Care Authority does not have the authority to implement the program without legislative approval.
Contracts had been awarded to Blue Cross Blue Shield of Oklahoma, Humana, Centene/Oklahoma Complete Health, and UnitedHealthcare. Centene/Oklahoma Complete Health also won an award for the SoonerSelect Children’s Specialty Program.
In May 2022, Governor Kevin Stitt signed a new Oklahoma law to implement Medicaid managed care by October 1, 2023.
SoonerSelect RFP
Oklahoma will award contracts to at least three entities to provide medical, behavioral, and pharmacy coverage to nearly one million eligible children, pregnant women, newborns, parents and caretake relatives, and the expansion population. However, enrollment in these populations is expected to drop following the end of the public health emergency (PHE).
At least one of the contracts may be awarded to a provider-led entity (PLE). PLEs would need to provide proof that a majority of their ownership is held by Oklahoma Medicaid providers or the majority of the governing body is composed of individuals who have experience serving Medicaid members and are licensed providers. PLEs would also be able to bid on urban regions if the PLE agrees to develop statewide readiness within a timeframe set by the OHCA. If no PLEs meet OHCA standards, Oklahoma can choose not to award a PLE.
Goals of the program will include:
Improve health outcomes for Medicaid members and the state as a whole
Ensure budget predictability through shared risk and accountability
Ensure access to care, quality measures, and member satisfaction
Ensure efficient and cost-effective administrative systems and structures
Ensure a sustainable delivery system that is a provider-led effort and that is operated and managed by providers to the maximum extent possible.
Timeline
Proposals will be due on February 8, 2023, and contract implementation is scheduled for October 1, 2023. The contract is expected to run through June 30, 2024, with five, one-year options.
Evaluation
Bidder’s technical proposals will be scored out of a total 1550 points. OHCA will award PLEs an additional 50 points for qualifying, bringing the total up to 1600 points. OHCA may also choose to conduct oral presentations for an extra total of 50 points.
SoonerSelect Children’s Specialty Program RFP
Oklahoma will select one of the awarded SoonerSelect plans for a separate statewide contract to provide comprehensive integrated health coverage to foster children, former foster children up to 25 years of age, juvenile justice-involved children, and children receiving adoption assistance. Contract terms will be the same as the main SoonSelect procurement, running from October 1, 2023, through June 30, 2024, with five one-year renewal options.
This week, our In Focus reviews the New Mexico Medicaid managed care request for proposals (RFP), released on September 30, 2022, by the New Mexico Human Services Department (HSD). The state will transition to a new program called Turquoise Care in 2024, which will build upon the current Centennial Care 2.0 program through a new Section 1115 waiver demonstration. Managed care organizations (MCOs) will provide physical health, behavioral health, and long-term care (LTC) services to approximately 800,000 Medicaid managed care members.
RFP
New Mexico plans to award Turquoise Care contracts to three MCOs. One of the selected MCOs will also be awarded a specialized foster care plan contract to provide services to Children in State Custody (CISC) on a statewide basis. CISC will be mandatorily enrolled and Native American CISC members will have the option to voluntarily enroll.
Turquoise Care will introduce new practices aimed at improving quality based on population health outcomes. The program will focus on three goals:
Goal 1: Build a New Mexico health care delivery system where every Medicaid member has a dedicated health care team that is accessible for both preventive and emergency care that supports the whole person – their physical, behavioral, and social drivers of health.
Goal 2: Strengthen the New Mexico health care delivery system through the expansion and implementation of innovative payment reforms and value-based initiatives.
Goal 3: Identify groups that have been historically and intentionally disenfranchised and address health disparities through strategic program changes to enable an equitable chance at living healthy lives. The target populations will be:
Prenatal, postpartum, and members parenting children, including children in state custody
Seniors and members with long-term services and supports (LTSS) needs
Members with behavioral health conditions
Native American members
Justice-involved individuals
Other changes for Turquoise Care include:
90 percent Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) aimed at improving quality of care
Expanded MCO reporting and monetary penalties for non-compliance
Minimum reimbursement rate for contract providers at or above the state plan approved fee schedule
More stringent provider network requirements
A single centralized vendor to process applications
Enhanced MCO staffing requirements, including qualifications, staffing levels, and training
Focus on social determinants of health
New Mexico will submit the Section 1115 demonstration waiver for Turquoise Health to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) for approval by December 2022. HSD will update the model contract to reflect the requirements related to the waiver renewal upon its approval.
During this procurement, the state will also be developing and implementing a new Medicaid Management Information System (MMIS).
Eligibility
Approximately 83 percent of the Medicaid population is in managed care.
Populations exempt from mandatory managed care enrollment are:
Native American members not in need of LTC
Individuals with Intellectual Disabilities (ICF-IID) in Intermediate Care Facilities
Individuals enrolled in Qualified Medicare Beneficiary (QMB), Specified Low-Income Medicare Beneficiary (SLIMB), or Qualified Individuals program
Individuals covered only under the Medicaid Family Planning program
Individuals enrolled in the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE)
Individuals covered pursuant to Emergency Medical Services for Non-Citizens (EMSNC)
Members in the Developmental Disabilities 1915(c) Waiver and in the Medically Fragile 1915(c) Waiver will continue to receive home and community-based services (HCBS) through that waiver but are required to enroll with an MCO for all non-HCBS.
Timeline
Proposals are due December 2, 2022. Contracts will run from January 1, 2024, through December 31, 2026, with optional one-year renewals, not to exceed eight years total.
Current Market
New Mexico had 811,732 Medicaid managed care as of August 2022, served by Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Mexico, Presbyterian Health Plan, and Centene/Western Sky. The state also had an additional 163,361 fee-for-service members.
Evaluation
The evaluation process will consist of three phases: review of mandatory requirements, review and scoring of the technical proposals, and review and scoring of the CISC technical proposals.
This week, our In Focus section reviews preliminary 2021 Medicaid spending data collected in the annual CMS-64 Medicaid expenditure report. After submitting a Freedom of Information Act request to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), HMA received a draft version of the CMS-64 report that is based on preliminary estimates of Medicaid spending by state for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2021. Based on the preliminary estimates, Medicaid expenditures on medical services across all 50 states and six territories in FFY 2021 was nearly $710.2 billion, with over 59 percent of the total now flowing through Medicaid managed care programs. In addition, total Medicaid spending on administrative services was $30.8 billion, bringing total program expenditures to $741 billion.
Total Medicaid Managed Care Spending
Total Medicaid managed care spending (including the federal and state share) in FFY 2021 across all 50 states and six territories was $420.5 billion, up from $359.6 billion in FFY 2020. This figure includes spending on comprehensive risk-based managed care programs as well as prepaid inpatient health plans (PIHPs) and prepaid ambulatory health plans (PAHPs). PIHPs and PAHPs refer to prepaid health plans that provide only certain services, such as dental services or behavioral health care. Fee-based programs such as primary care case management (PCCM) models are not counted in this total. Below we highlight some key observations:
Total Medicaid managed care spending grew 16.9 percent in FFY 2021. The rate of growth has been increasing since the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior to 2020, the rate had decelerated since FFY 2016.
Managed care spending growth was due in large part to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting higher Medicaid enrollment.
In terms of dollars, the increase in Medicaid managed care spending from FFY 2020 to FFY 2021 was $60.9 billion, compared to $46.1 billion from FFY 2019 to FFY 2020.
Medicaid managed care spending has increased at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.1 percent since FFY 2007, compared to a 6.6 percent growth in total Medicaid spending.
Compared to FFY 2020, Medicaid managed care spending as a percent of total Medicaid spending in FFY 2021 increased by 3.8 percentage points to 59.2 percent.
Figure 1: Medicaid MCO Expenditures as a Percentage of Total Medicaid Expenditures FFY 2007-2021 ($M)
As the table below indicates, 69.4 percent of FFY 2021 spending came from federal sources, which is 12 percentage points higher than the pre-Medicaid expansion share in FFY 2013, and 1.8 percentage points higher than FFY 2020.
Figure 2: Federal vs. States Share of Medicaid Expenditures, FFY 2013-2021 ($M)
State-specific Growth Trends
Forty-five states and territories report managed care organization (MCO) spending on the CMS-64 report, including Alaska, which utilizes a PIHP/PAHP model exclusively. Oklahoma is expected to implement a Medicaid managed care program in 2023. Of the remaining 44 states and territories that contract with risk-based MCOs, average MCO spending in FFY 2021 increased 17.6 percent. On a percentage basis, North Carolina experienced the highest year-over-year growth in Medicaid managed care spending at 63.3 percent due to the implementation of its risk-based Medicaid managed care program. Among states with more mature programs, Colorado experienced the fastest growth in FFY 2021 at 59 percent, followed by Nebraska at 55.6 percent.
The chart below provides additional detail on Medicaid managed care spending growth in states with risk-based managed care programs in FFY 2021.
Figure 3: Medicaid Managed Care Spending Growth on a Percentage Basis by State FFY 2020-21
Source: CMS-64; *Note: Not all states are included in the table.
Looking at year-over-year spending growth in dollar terms, Illinois experienced the largest increase in Medicaid managed care spending at $5.5 billion. Other states with significant year-over-year spending increases in dollar terms included Texas ($5.2 billion), California ($5.2 billion), and New York ($5.1 billion). The chart below illustrates the year over year change in spending across the states.
Figure 4: Medicaid Managed Care Spending Growth on a Dollar Basis by State FFY 2020-21 ($M)
Source: CMS-64; *Note: Not all states are included in the table.
The percentage of Medicaid expenditures directed through risk-based Medicaid MCOs increased by more than five percentage points in 14 states from FFY 2020 to FFY 2021. The managed care spending penetration rate rose 13.4 percentage points in the District of Columbia, 9.7 percentage points in Indiana, 9.5 percentage points in Nebraska, 9.2 percentage points in North Carolina, and 9.1 percentage points in Illinois.
Figure 5: Medicaid MCO Expenditures as a Percentage of Total Medicaid Expenditures in States with a 5 percent or Greater Increase from FFY 2020 to FFY 2021 ($M)
Source: CMS-64
The table below ranks the states and territories by the percentage of total Medicaid spending through Medicaid MCOs. Iowa reported the highest percentage at 97.2 percent, followed by Puerto Rico at 95 percent, and Hawaii at 94.4 percent.
We note that in many states, there are certain payment mechanisms which may never be directed through managed care, such as supplemental funding sources for institutional providers and spending on retroactively eligible beneficiaries. As a result, the maximum achievable penetration rate in each state will vary and may be below that achieved in other states. The Medicaid managed care spending penetration rate is greatly influenced by the degree to which states have implemented managed long-term services and supports (MLTSS) programs.
Figure 6: Medicaid MCO Expenditures as a Percent of Total Medicaid Expenditures, FFY 2016-2021
Non-MCO Expenditures
Despite the rapid growth in Medicaid managed care over the last 10 years, program spending still represented approximately 59 percent of total Medicaid expenditures in FFY 2021. So where is the remaining fee-for-service (FFS) spending (approximately $291 billion) going? First, as noted above, there are many states/territories with Medicaid managed care programs in which certain beneficiaries or services are carved-out of the program, and these are typically associated with high-cost populations. The total amount of non-MCO spending in the 44 states with risk-based managed care in FFY 2021 was $260.4 billion. Assuming an average “full penetration” of 85 percent of total Medicaid spending, then HMA estimates that an additional $221 billion in current FFS spending could shift to a managed care model just in the states that already employ managed care for a subset of services and/or beneficiaries.
Thirteen states/territories did not utilize a comprehensive risk-based managed care model in FFY 2020. In general, the 13 states/territories that do not utilize managed care today are smaller states. Oklahoma, with $5.3 billion in Medicaid spending is expected to shift to risk-based Medicaid managed care in 2023. Total Medicaid spending across all 13 non-managed care states/territories was $29.8 billion. The 13 states/territories that did not employ a risk-based comprehensive Medicaid managed care model in FFY 2021 were Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Connecticut, Guam, Maine, Montana, Northern Mariana Islands, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Vermont, Virgin Islands, and Wyoming.
In terms of spending by service line, the largest remaining FFS category is home and community-based services at $69.5 billion, which accounts for 24 percent of FFS spending. Inpatient hospital services represent 21 percent of FFS spending at $60.8 billion.
Figure 7: Fee-for-Service Medicaid Expenditures by Service Line, FFY 2021
While the CMS-64 report provides valuable detail by service line for all FFS expenditures, it does not capture how spending directed to Medicaid MCOs is allocated by category of service. Therefore, it is not possible to calculate total MCO spending by service line, a challenge that will only intensify as more spending runs through MCOs.
This week, our In Focus section reviews the Indiana Medicaid managed long-term services and supports (MLTSS) request for proposals, released by the Indiana Department of Administration on behalf of the Family and Social Services Administration on June 30, 2022. Indiana is seeking three managed care organizations (MCOs) that will serve an estimated 106,000 enrollees, beginning January 1, 2024, for a period of four years, with two one-year renewal options.
MLTSS Program
Indiana began forming a plan to reform the state’s Medicaid LTSS services in 2019 by holding stakeholder meetings. The state estimated that from 2010 to 2030 the proportion of Hoosiers over age 65 will grow from 13 percent to 20 percent, and that the state’s system would need to be reformed to meet the growing demand. The state set an objective to shift the LTSS program to a managed care model and to move a higher percentage of new LTSS members into home and community-based settings.
The new statewide, risk-based MLTSS program will serve Medicaid beneficiaries who are aged 60 years and older and are classified as aged, blind, or disabled. These beneficiaries will include individuals who are dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid, those in a nursing facility, and those who are receiving LTSS in a home or community-based setting.
Beneficiaries in this program will receive all traditional Medicaid services, delivered through a capitated managed care arrangement. Those who meet a specified level of care will be eligible to receive home and community-based services (HCBS) waiver services. The Medicaid Rehabilitation Option (MRO), Adult Mental Health Habilitation Services Program (AMHH), and Behavioral and Primary Care Coordination (BPHC) will be carved out of the capitated arrangement. For dually eligible beneficiaries, Medicare will be the first payer for all Medicare covered services, including services that are covered by both Medicare and Medicaid.
Indiana seeks to contract with MCOs that can address complex and chronic health conditions of the program population and integrate care along the continuum and settings of LTSS in the state. Program goals include simplifying access to HCBS and expanding the HCBS provider network, especially in rural areas; using a person-centered approach; improving quality outcomes and consistency of care across the delivery system; promoting caregiver support and skill development; in addition to others.
Timeline
The first part of the proposals is due September 19, with the second part due September 23. Awards are expected in February 2023.
Evaluation
After ensuring proposals meet the mandatory requirement, proposals will be scored out of a total possible 103 points, as shown in the table below.
Preliminary Capitation Rate Summary
Based on the preliminary calendar year 2024 capitation rate development, contracts are estimated to be worth $3.8 billion annually.
Be sure to register for HMA’s 2022 Conference by Monday, July 11, to get the special early bird rate of $1,695 per person. After July 11, the rate is $1,895.
Nearly 40 industry speakers, including health plan executives, state Medicaid directors, and providers, are confirmed for HMA’s The New Normal: How Medicaid, Medicare, and Other Publicly Sponsored Programs Are Shaping the Future of Healthcare in a Time of Crisis conference, October 10-11, at the Fairmont Chicago, Millennium Park.
In addition to keynote sessions featuring some of the nation’s top Medicaid and Medicaid executives, attendees can choose from multiple breakout and plenary sessions on behavioral health, dual eligibles, healthcare investing, technology-enabled integrated care, social determinants of health, eligibility redeterminations, staffing, senior care, and more.
There will also be a Pre-Conference Workshop on The Future of Payment Reform: Delivering Value, Managing Risk in Medicare and Medicaid, on Sunday, October 9.
Visit our website for complete details: https://conference.healthmanagement.com/. Group rates and sponsorships are available. The last HMA conference attracted 500 attendees.
State Medicaid Speakers to Date (In alphabetical order)
Cristen Bates, Interim Medicaid Director, CO Department of Healthcare Policy & Financing
Jacey Cooper, Medicaid Director, Chief Deputy Director, California Department of Health Care Services
Kody Kinsley, Secretary, North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services